NFL 2011 Season Preview: Predicting Who Will Win Each Division

This NFL season has already proved that it is going to be a very exciting one, for multiple reasons.

Most fans are still just happy to have football at all, with the good feelings following the end of the NFL lockout not too far back in our minds.  In addition, the season is still young, so no matter how badly any given team has played, they still have time to right the ship and make things happen this year.

On the flip side, teams that have started out red hot still have time to come back down to earth.  This really is one of my favorite parts of the season, because no one knows how everything is going to unfold.

With certain teams surprising and others faltering, it's a perfect time to take a look at which teams are going to come out on top at the end of the season.

NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles

As Michael Vick goes, so go the Philadelphia Eagles and their chances at being a Super Bowl contender.  But despite his recent injury, I'm betting that Vick will be able to take the Eagles far this season.  With the concussion Vick suffered this past Sunday, it's unclear if he'll be ready to go against the Giants on Sunday, although most signs point to him being able to start, barring any unforeseen setbacks.

Vick is the biggest reason why the Eagles will win the NFC East.  But he's not the only one.

LeSean McCoy looks like he will have a big year, and the Eagles are truly stacked at wide receiver, giving Vick a lot of capable targets when he is not running the ball himself.

It's dangerous to rely too much on statistics at this point in the season, with such a small sample size to draw from, but over their first two games, the Eagles have rushed for more yards than anyone except for (ironically) the Buffalo Bills.  Part of that comes simply from having Vick on the roster, but others are also stepping up and making significant contributions.

They are in the middle of the pack defensively but with the way they are going to be scoring, that might be enough to get them stops when they need them.  In addition, although they don't have the easiest schedule by any means, they get the Cowboys, the Patriots and and the Jets at home, all likely playoff teams and possible Super Bowl contenders.

With a healthy Michael Vick, there's no way the Eagles don't win their division.

NFC West: St. Louis Rams

In making this pick, I should also mention that I don't think any team in this division will finish above .500 this season.  We might see the Rams get to 8-8, but that's it.

To win their division, the Rams need to win at least two of their next fives games, or else they risk falling more than a couple of games behind San Francisco, which would probably be too much to overcome.  They play Baltimore and Washington at home, have a bye week, then play at Green Bay and at Dallas, followed by a game at home against New Orleans.

I think they will do it because I expect a dramatic increase in their overall team discipline as the season wears on. They committed eight penalties for 85 yards on Monday, and also had two fumbles, one of which was returned for a touchdown.  In addition, they had to settle for field goals on three trips to the red zone.

The probable return of injured star running back Stephen Jackson will provide an important boost to their offensive efficiency and lighten the load on Sam Bradford's shoulders.

The Rams aren't that great right now, but the 49ers, Seahawks and Cardinals are all so bad that they look like the best candidate to take the division crown, even if they did blow a golden opportunity against the Giants on Monday Night Football.  If they make it through the first half of the season with no more than five losses, they will be in a good position for the rest of the season.

NFC North: Green Bay Packers

One could make the case that the Detroit Lions, division rivals and suddenly competent challengers in the NFC North, have been more impressive than the Packers during the first two weeks of the regular season. That might be true, but after last year, I can't bet against Aaron Rodgers and his ability to win when it counts.

The Packers as a team have proven that they know how to overcome adversity, and even thrive in the face of it.  Last season their starters missed a combined total of 83 games, second most in the NFL.  This season they have already lost starting safety Nick Collins to a season-ending injury, in addition to the usual share of minor aches and pains.  But history has shown that they will not let that slow them down.

As it stands now, the Packers are in the top half of the league both in rushing and receiving yards per game, but are dead last in terms of passing yards allowed, having given up an average of 400 per game so far.  That number needs to go down, and it will, as the defense gels and comes together over the course of the season.  

Their schedule is not terrible; of the current Top 10 teams in this past week's ESPN.com NFL power rankings, the Packers play Atlanta once and the Bears twice.

The Packers' biggest rival from last season, the Chicago Bears, have struggled mightily to protect quarterback Jay Cutler this season, and if that continues, he'll likely miss at least a game or two due to injury.  The Lions are coming on very strong this season, but are unproven, and though I think they will make the playoffs, I don't think they will end up with a better record than the Packers at the end of the season.

NFC South: New Orleans Saints

New Orleans is one of three teams in the NFC South that currently have records of 1-1, meaning it is already shaping up to be a tight race for the division crown.  Both Tampa Bay and Atlanta have legitimate chances of winning that race, but the Saints have the best chance, for a few reasons.

First, the Saints have Drew Brees, who through the first two games of this season, has not thrown a single interception.  That is good news for the Saints, who had big problems taking care of the football last season.  

He is also currently on pace, along with a few others, to break Dan Marino's all-time record for passing yards in a single season.  I don't think it'll fall this year, but the fact it's being talked about is a testament to how well this guy is playing.

Second, the Saints have a favorable schedule going forward, with a chance to run away from their divisional rivals.  After this week's matchup with currently unbeaten Houston, they face Jacksonville, Carolina, Indianapolis and St. Louis in four of their following five games.  They also face Tampa Bay twice and Atlanta once before the bye in Week 11, which will all likely be games with a big impact in the division race.

The Saints' rushing attack is currently only ranked 17th in the league, but that is likely to improve with guys like Mark Ingram, Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles able to trade carries.  The passing game will always be spectacular as long as Brees is in the game.  The defense still has room for improvement, but they'll get there.

AFC East: New England Patriots

Even though the Patriots are only one of three teams in their division currently undefeated, they are the only logical choice, once again because of their quarterback, Tom Brady.  Sensing a pattern yet?

I think Mark Sanchez and Ryan Fitzpatrick are nice quarterbacks, but neither one is close to being an elite quarterback.  On the other hand, Brady will be the best quarterback on the field in every regular season game he plays this season.  

One area where the Patriots have been weak so far is against the pass, where defensively they rank near the very bottom of the NFL in terms of passing yards allowed each week.  However, it is a small sample size, and they will likely improve as the season goes on.  They've kept opponents under 100 yards rushing each week, and they lead the lead in passing yards per game so far.

The Patriots, like Green Bay, have so far been able to simply outscore their opponents, and will probably be able to do so most weeks thanks to the guy throwing the passes.  They need to do a better job defensively, but Bill Belichick will make sure that happens as the season wears on.

New England is a team that has already proven itself to be a winner.  They are better than last year, and will likely be able to make sure the Jets finish behind them in the standings by the end of the season.

AFC West: San Diego Chargers

The San Diego Chargers led the NFL in both team offense and defense last season, yet they didn't make the playoffs because of terrible problems with their special teams play.  This year they are not currently at the top in either category, but have a chance to have better success as a whole, for a variety of reasons.

First, the quality of play in their division is even less than it was last year.  The Oakland Raiders are improving, and have a chance to win the division, but are still unproven and have a very difficult schedule. The Kansas City Chiefs went from making the playoffs last season to being one of the worst teams in football this year, and the Denver Broncos don't seem to have any current identity.

The Chargers will be competitive in most games simply because of how good Philip Rivers is, and will benefit from a weak schedule.  They are not a Super Bowl contender, in my opinion, but they are better than anyone else in their division and will win the division title this year.  

AFC North: Baltimore Ravens

This was probably the hardest pick for me to make, because no team in this division has really stood out so far.  The Browns, Bengals, Steelers and Ravens each have one win and one loss.  No one is picking the Browns or the Bengals because of quarterback issues and other causes for uncertainty, and the Ravens and Steelers have both shown a certain amount of inconsistency as well.

I like the Ravens' odds because of how they handled the Steelers in Week 1.  Yes, it was only Week 1, and the Ravens went out the very next week and played awful against a low-ranked Tennessee Titans team.  But the Steelers' big win against an offensively inept Seahawks team doesn't mean much right now, so factoring in the head to head matchup, I have to go with the Ravens.

The Ravens' schedule is not bad, and with all of the talent they have on offense, they are likely to play better and more consistently as the season goes forward.  Joe Flacco isn't better than Ben Roethlisberger, but his team is younger and more talented, which should be enough to win the division title in 2011.

AFC South: Houston Texans

Right now, Houston is easily the best team in the AFC South.  Unfortunately for Houston fans, if they go on to win the division title this season, most people will see it with somewhat of an asterisk, since it's a completely different race without the dominating presence of Peyton Manning on the field for the Colts every week.

That being said, the Texans do have a lot of good things going for them.  Even with Arian Foster struggling, they are fifth in the league in rushing yards per game, and they have the No. 1 passing defense in the NFL.  

This appears to finally be their year to make it into the playoffs.  They have a favorable schedule, with two of their most difficult opponents (Pittsburgh and Atlanta) having to come to them.  I would like them as a contender even if Manning was playing because of their defense.  They don't have the same superior quarterback play of some of the other contenders, but Matt Schaub is still better than average.  It looks like they are finally ready to make some noise in the postseason.