College Football Picks Week 4: Arkansas vs. Alabama and More

There were several heavyweight battles last week as the ACC flexed its muscle a bit, though Oklahoma prevailed as the No. 1 team in the country. 

With all of the expansion going on in the ACC and possibly in more conferences to come, the on-field talk has died down a tad this weekend. 

Still, SEC football is the cream of the crop with Alabama hosting Arkansas in a critical SEC West battle, as well as the LSU Tigers traveling to Morgantown against a solid West Virginia squad.

Last Week: 10-4

Overall: 34-10 (77 percent)

Notre Dame at Pittsburgh: Noon ET, ABC

Facts

The Irish are 13-4 vs. Pitt since 1988 but lost their last trip at Pitt ('09). Notre Dame is 36th in total offense, averaging 432 yards per game, and Pitt is 61st, averaging 404. Defensively, Pitt is 96th in total defense, allowing a horrid 416 yards per game. The Domers are allowing just 354 yards a game which is 58th in the land.

Matchup: 119th-ranked pass defense of Pitt against 27th-ranked passing offense of Notre Dame

Michael Floyd is unstoppable this season, and there really is not one single corner on the schedule that can limit Floyd. TJ Jones and Theo Riddick are exceptionable complementary guys who can stretch the field in their sleep, and tight end Tyler Eifert is solid as well. It is imperative that Jarred Holley and Antwuan Reed play their best to avoid getting lit up.

X-Factor: Tino Sunseri, QB

Why not? The Pitt signal caller singlehandedly killed Iowa last weekend in the first half. Yet he looked like a completely different player in the second half. He cannot turn the ball over and must find his big targets in Devin Street (6'4") and Mike Shanahan (6'5") early and often. 

Why Pitt Can Win

The Panthers have a balanced attack thanks to Ray Graham, but he is going to have to break a few long runs if this offense expects to keep things rolling. The Irish are going to load up the box and force Sunseri to throw in tight coverages. Plus, the defense has not been able to close out games with just awful pass coverage. Luckily, the Irish are prone to turning the rock over as well.

Why Notre Dame Can Win

The Irish have the more talented team despite playing on the road, and their defense is stout up front. Paper does not win games, but their 30th-ranked run defense should be the difference in this game. Manti Te'o headlines a filthy good LB corp.

What Should Happen

These Golden Domers are just too stout defensively for Pitt to maintain scoring drives. ND will move the ball and will not have much trouble putting some points on the board. As long as ND avoids the crucial turnover, Pittsburgh will have a hard time keeping up.

Experts' Pick: ND by 6.5

Drama's Pick: NOTRE DAME 31, PITTSBURGH 24

San Diego State at Michigan: Noon ET, BTN

Facts

The only meeting they had was in 2004, when Michigan knocked off SDSU 24-21 in Ann Arbor. Michigan is 19th in rushing offense, and the Aztecs are just 99th against the run, allowing 197 yards per game.

Matchup: Ronnie Hillman against Michigan's front seven

Winning the line of scrimmage is crucial for Michigan if it wants to win this tough home game. Kenny Demens and Cameron Gordon must make plays behind the line of scrimmage, and playing behind the physical presence known as Mike Martin should certainly help. 

X-Factor: Ryan Lindley, QB

If the Aztecs have any glimmer of hope to win this game, they must get a huge game from Lindley and the passing attack. His star receivers have graduated, and he needs to quickly build a rapport with his new targets. Michigan is an opportunistic pass defense that is allowing just 175 yards per game. Troy Woolfolk has been battling several injuries and will need Jordan Kovacs to continue to make big plays. 

Why San Diego State Can Win

The Aztecs can move the ball and keep Denard Robinson on the sidelines. The only question is if their defense can come away with enough stops to pull off the upset.

Why Michigan Can Win

This defense is much better than last year, and the offense has been putting up a ton of yards and points. Robinson has a bevy of playmakers in the backfield and in the passing game. Michigan is no longer one-dimensional thanks to Denard's dual-threat ability, which will be too tough for Brady Hoke's former team to stop.

What Should Happen

Hoke is not going to allow his new team to lose to his former at the "Big House," especially when he has Denard Robinson in late-season form. Good luck stopping the multidimensional offense of the Wolverines.

Experts' Pick: Michigan by 10

Drama's Pick: MICHIGAN 35, SD ST 21

Missouri at No. 1 Oklahoma: 8:00 ET, FX

Facts

Payback for last year's 36-27 defeat is on the mind of the Sooners. Missouri has not knocked off the Sooners in consecutive years since '65-'66! Also, the Tigers' win last year was their second in 21 attempts.

Matchup: OU's secondary against Mizzou's receivers

Those "Sharks" of Oklahoma were flying all over the place against Florida State's speedy targets, and I expect the same type of performance here. Missouri's talent level in the passing game stacks up really well with FSU, but playing at home this time should give the slightest of edges to the Sooners.

X-Factor: James Franklin, QB

If Franklin plays the game of his life, this could come down to the wire. Wes Kemp, T.J. Moe and Michael Egnew are solid options for Franklin to look good, but it is the running ability of Franklin that could give the Sooners some issues. E.J. Manuel (though a much bigger/better athlete) gashed the Sooners run defense, so if Franklin does the same, this game would be a tight one.

Why Missouri Can Win

James Franklin is slowly improving his game, but if you think ASU's offense was tough, then wait until you see the Sooners! Missouri will not struggle to move the ball, but I wonder if it can score enough to keep up with OU. Luckily, the Sooners are coming off a huge road win that could make them take the Tigers lightly, though I doubt they will.

Why Oklahoma can win

Landry Jones got his first huge road test, and he passed with flying colors on the scoreboard against the tough defensive Seminoles. Despite throwing two picks, he found Kenny Stills and Ryan Broyles early and often. Mizzou's defense is not quite as good as FSU's, so expect more of the same from the Boomer Sooners offense.

What Should Happen

The Sooners offense is unstoppable with two All-Americans at receiver, and their running game will get back to form against Mizzou. Watch Travis Lewis continue to get back to full health after making a miraculous return. He originally said on Twitter that he would not be able to play in Tally. Too much firepower should lead to a relatively easy win.

Experts' Pick: Oklahoma by 22 

Drama's Pick: OKLAHOMA 38, MISSOURI 14

Tulsa at No. 4 Boise State: 8:00 ET, CBSN

Facts

Tulsa is 0-5 against Boise State, though the last meeting came down to the wire in a 27-20 ballgame. Boise State is currently 15th in the nation in total offense, averaging 500 yards per game on the dot. Tulsa is averaging 431, which means a ton of yards and a possible shootout could be on the horizon. 

Matchup: Boise State's front four vs. Tulsa's offensive line

Reading below might help, but in case you did not get the memo—G.J. Kinne, who is already third on Tulsa's all-time passing career leaders list, is out two to four weeks with a grade two MCL tear. If Tulsa cannot protect its brand-new signal caller, then it will be a really long night for the Golden Hurricane.

X-Factor: Kalen Henderson, QB

Tulsa has a redshirt freshman making his first career start at the "Blue Smurf Turf Carpet," which is not exactly great news. Tulsa is without Kinne and its star receiver Damaris Johnson, but there are other options that can put some points on the board.

Henderson must remain calm in the pocket, as he may be flushed out of the pocket all night. If he can avoid huge turnovers, then his Golden Hurricane have a great shot of staying in the ball game early on.

Why Tulsa Can win

Without a three-hour delay, I give Tulsa a decent chance of keeping this game close on the road. Kinne will be unable to play in this game, but the offense is still loaded with a few running backs that can move the chains. Trey Watts and Ja'Terian Douglas combined for over 200 yards against Oklahoma State last week, and they could do the same against a very good Boise defense.

Why Boise State Can Win

Kellen Moore has been toying with the opposition as of late, and Tulsa does not exactly have the pass defense to slow down any BCS-caliber passing attack. There are six or seven different guys who are hauling in touchdowns this season. Redshirt freshman Matt Miller has showed off his talents, along with Chris Potter, Kirby Moore, Kyle Efaw, Gabe Linehan, Tyler Shoemaker and Mitch Burroughs. Did I mention they have have a two-headed monster in the backfield as well?

What Should Happen

Just watch the Toledo game over again from the second half on. Billy Winn and Chase Baker may be the best duo of defensive tackles in the country, and they singlehandedly create pressure every possession. This run defense is too strong to allow a chunk of yards for an entire game. Plus, that No. 11 dude is spinning it better than anybody in the land. The Broncos will continue to steamroll through teams.

Experts' Pick: Boise State by 32.5

Drama's Pick: BOISE STATE 52, TULSA 17

No. 10 Oregon at Arizona: 10:15 ET, ESPN2

Facts

The last time the Ducks went to Tuscon we saw quite the ballgame with Oregon prevailing 44-41 in double overtime. Oregon is 14-3 since 1994 and has now won three straight in the series. 

Matchup: Arizona's WRs against Oregon's secondary

The slew of targets that signal caller Nick Foles has to throw to is a positive note for the 'Cats, but going up against the defensive backs of Oregon will be no easy chore. Cliff Harris, John Boyett and Eddie Pleasant are just a few of the defensive backs that will be licking their chops since AZ loves to throw the ball around.

X-Factor: Keola Antolin, RB

Nine carries is not quite enough for the Wildcats' top runner in the ground game. They must be more committed to the running game, or else the Ducks will just pin their ears back against Foles. 

Why Arizona can win

Nick Foles has a healthy Juron Criner, Dan Buckner, David Roberts and David Douglas to thread the needle to. It is not like the Ducks defense is phenomenal by any means; in fact, I question if it can limit to Foles under 300 yards. Now the 'Cats defense is a completely different topic.

Why Oregon can win

LaMichael James is still untouchable in the open field, and Darron Thomas now has 10 TDs with only one INT. He has the ability to escape pressure with great feet, and he uses the bevy of options that he has running down the field or out of the flats.

What Should Happen

I really question how Arizona is going to stop Oregon from scoring 40 points, but I will go out on a limb and say that it will create a few turnovers to make it close. Foles will connect with a few big plays down the field but will have his own issues late in the game. Darron Thomas will make just a few more plays than Foles with James at his disposal, which should be the difference.

Experts' Pick: Oregon by 15.5

Drama's Pick: OREGON 38, ARIZONA 24

No. 23 USC at Arizona State: 10:15 ET, ESPN

Facts

Arizona State has struggled recently against USC, having not defeated the Trojans since 1999! ASU has a great chance of going to the first ever Pac-12 Championship Game despite losing to Illinois last weekend (since USC is ineligible).

Matchup: Matt Barkley against Brock Osweiler

Wait, what?! Despite these quarterbacks not playing on the field at the same time, whoever can perform better should pull off the win. Barkley is putting up amazing numbers, averaging 301 yards per game. Big Brock (6'8") is averaging 315 total yards of offense per game. Expect a ton of fireworks in the passing game and not a whole lot of defense.

X-Factor: Marc Tyler

Tyler returned against Utah by rushing for 113 yards on 24 carries, but he did not see much success against Syracuse, only toting the rock 15 times for 41 yards. USC must keep ASU's fairly explosive offense off the field, but more importantly, USC's defense must have more time to get its breath like it did against Syracuse.  

Why USC Can Win

Robert Woods is unstoppable, and the rest of the Trojan targets are getting the job done for Matt Barkley. Plus, ASU has been bothered by a rash of injuries, only this time it is their defensive end Junior Onyeali (torn meniscus, out six weeks). He is the third Sun Devil defensive player to be lost for the year, and the Trojans have not had any issues moving the ball this season (429 YPG). 

Why Arizona State Can Win

The pass defense of USC is still awful at the moment, ranking 75th by allowing 229 yards per game. USC's strength is against the run, which is perfect since ASU does not even bother to run the ball a ton. ASU can thread the needle with Aaron Pflugrad, Mike Willie and Gerell Robinson all coming up big this season. Playing at home could give it the slightest edge overall.

What should happen

I am not sure how ASU will bounce back after suffering a tough loss at Illinois. It outplayed Illinois, but two costly interceptions from Osweiler hurt the team. USC can cause some pressure and even more turnovers if big Brock does not take care of it. 

Experts' Pick: ASU by 2.5 

Drama's Pick: USC 28, ASU 27

No. 7 Oklahoma State at No. 8 Texas A&M: 3:30 ET, ABC

Facts

Oklahoma State comes into this series with three consecutive victories. Last year's thriller was an explosion of offenses, and this game should be no different.

Matchup: Coryell Judie/Trent Hunter vs. Justin Blackmon

Judie has flashed his brilliant athleticism time after time. This season is no different, though it is Hunter tied with him on the team with one interception. Blackmon deserves extra treatment, so look for the entire Aggies secondary to try to slow him down. 

X-Factor: Joseph Randle, RB

Maybe nobody has realized that Randle is a stud but me. People questioned this running game all offseason, and OKST just happens to have the 10th-ranked runner in the nation, averaging 126 yards per game. He gives the Cowboys an extra dimension in their offense, which makes them nearly unstoppable. Both of these offenses are among the top five most balanced offenses, which should make for one hell of a finish.

Why Oklahoma State Can Win

Ranked third in the nation averaging 52 points a game is quite impressive. Justin Blackmon can score on any given play, and the play of Josh Cooper has really gone a far ways for this offense. They have half a dozen of options to go to with confidence, and the defense has shown it can come up with big stops when it needs to.

Why Texas A&M Can Win

The Aggies defense is better since the 'Pokes defense allows 413 yards per game (92nd). A&M is ranked 15th, allowing just 267 yards per game. Ryan Swope and Jeff Fuller, along with the two-headed monster in the backfield (Christine Michael and Cyrus Gray), give the Aggies one of the most consistent offenses in the nation.

What Should Happen

This will be arguably the most entertaining game all weekend, and I think College GameDay should have chosen College Station. Brandon Weeden and Ryan Tannehill will trade blows similar to a heavyweight fight. Any turnovers will be costly in this game—make no mistake about it.

Despite the game being played in the afternoon, Weeden has the better options to spread the wealth with. However, A&M has the home-field advantage and the better defense, which should make the ultimate edge in favor of the 12th Man. 

Experts' Pick: A&M by four

Drama's Pick: A&M 38, OKST 36

No. 2 LSU at No. 16 West Virginia: 8:00 ET, ABC

Facts

West Virginia has won 16 straight non-conference home games, and LSU has won 28 of its last 29 non-conference games (only loss to Penn State in the 2010 Capital One Bowl). All of those games have been in the Les Miles era, and something has to give in the first ever visit to Morgantown for the Bayou Bengals.

Matchup: LSU front four vs. West Virginia offensive line

LSU has eight beasts: Kendrick Adams, Kiki Mingo, Sam Montgomery, Lavar Edwards, Michael Brockers, Anthony Johnson, Bennie Logan and Josh Downs are freaks of nature that could wreak havoc on the Mountaineers. If Geno Smith has no time to throw, it will be one long night in Morgantown.

X-Factor: Russell Shepard, WR

Why not? It is the very first game for the sensational junior that can do it all. They may use him in the backfield as a runner on jet sweeps, as well as at quarterback since he also throws the ball a bit. He gives Jarrett Lee another reliable target to stretch the field against a solid Mountaineer secondary that allows only 200 yards a game (53rd).

Why LSU can win

LSU has the best defense in the nation (save 'Bama), and if it can put any pressure on Geno Smith, this game will be over before we sit down to watch it. WVU has a ton of options that can stretch the field, but LSU's secondary is sensational, led by the small man that can do it all, Tyrann Mathieu.

Why West Virginia can win

Geno Smith is a magician that can thread the needle to his stud receivers. Tavon Austin, Stedman Bailey and Ivan McCartney are solid young receivers that will challenge the mighty tough secondary of LSU. WVU has a ton of returning starters on its offensive line, and it may be able to hold its own despite LSU possessing the best front in college football.

What should happen

There are half a dozen future stars just in the LSU secondary, not to mention the stud linemen or the few solid linebackers such as Ryan Baker. LSU is a ground and pound type of team, so look for Spencer Ware and Michael Ford to once again combine for close to 200 yards rushing. WVU will not have an answer for the physical presence that LSU brings to the table, and it will not do enough to limit the big plays from Rueben Randle either.

Experts' Pick: LSU by six

Drama's Pick: LSU 27, WEST VIRGINIA 17

No. 11 Florida State at No. 21 Clemson: 3:30 ET, ESPN

Facts

The visitor when these teams match up has gone just 1-8 in the last nine meetings. FSU has lost to Clemson at "Death Valley" by an average of 15 points per game in the last four meetings. The winner of this game would get a clear edge in the Atlantic division and could represent the ACC in the BCS.

E.J. Manuel comes into this game as a question mark since injuring his left shoulder, which should make him a game-time decision come Saturday afternoon.

Matchup: Clemson O-line vs. FSU D-line

Florida State manhandled Oklahoma's front five for many stages of the game in passing situations because of the ferocious pressure off the edge. Bjoern Werner and Brandon Jenkins are two flat-out studs that gave OU a ton of trouble. Clemson's line is about a notch below the Sooners, so this could play a huge factor with Florida State going up against a scorching-hot signal caller in Tajh Boyd.

X-Factor: Dustin Hopkins, K

Really, a kicker? Yes, Florida State will get plenty of scoring options, and it must be able to turn them into touchdowns, but with Manuel's status in limbo, Dustin Hopkins should be able to convert when asked upon. He kept the 'Noles in their ballgame last weekend, and we could be looking at a possible kick that decides this game.

Why Clemson Can Win

The Tigers offense is actually more explosive with Tajh Boyd connecting at will with Sammy Watkins, DeAndre Hopkins and Dwayne Allen. Allen is huge at H-back/tight end with his ability to block as well as make big plays down the field on crucial third downs. Clemson defensively did a great job in coverage thanks to a huge interception from Coty Sensabaugh.

Clemson can win the turnover battle and the game if it plays smart and avoids dumb penalties.

Why Florida State Can Win

Even with a bevy of receivers, running backs and a quarterback nicked up, the Seminoles still come into the game with a great chance to win. On paper that sounds nice, but they need to give the same effort that they gave Oklahoma. Plus, Clemson has a nicked-up runner with Andre Ellington (hamstring), though Mike Bellamy and D.J. Howard are capable backups.

What Should Happen

It was tough luck losing Manuel in the third quarter since their loss to the Sooners was almost like a national championship play-in game. However, they could not run the ball at all with their backs, and they should be able to get just enough production from Ty Jones and an injured Chris Thompson.

Defensively, they will come after Boyd and force a few errant plays, which will be the difference. Greg Reid (leg), Michael Harris and Xavier Rhodes are physical enough to hang with these big Tigers boys.

Experts' Pick: Clemson by 2.5

Drama's Pick: FLORIDA STATE 24, CLEMSON 23

No. 14 Arkansas at No. 3 Alabama: 3:30 ET, CBS

Facts

Alabama has won 19 straight SEC openers, and the home team is 7-2 when these teams have played the past nine years. Last season Alabama was trailing 20-7 before it went ahead for good, winning 24-20. The Tide were opportunistic, picking off Ryan Mallett three times (once in the red zone and two late in the fourth quarter).

Matchup: Greg Childs, Joe Adams, Cobi Hamilton and Jarius Wright against Tide's secondary

Childs missed last weekend's game against Troy due to his grandmother passing, and Wright (knee) was dinged up two weeks ago against New Mexico State and missed the game against Troy. That is not good since they may not be good enough to beat Alabama if they were playing and at 100 percent.

Robert Lester and Mark Barron both lay the lumber and might just be the best two defensive backs in the country.

X-Factor: Jake Bequette, DE

Missing the last game due to a nagging hamstring was not a big deal since Arkansas played Troy, but Bequette better be close to 100 percent in time for Alabama, or else Trent Richardson will run amok on the Razorbacks rush defense. Harassing and coming after signal caller A.J. McCarron is imperative to avoid getting gashed. Can Arkansas bring its "A" game on defense against the Tide?

Why Arkansas Can Win

Joe Adams has been electric this season, and Tyler Wilson is the perfect guy to tear apart the secondary of Alabama. Wilson came in and torched Auburn last season filling in for an injured Mallett, but this is his first true road test as a starter. The options are endless for Pig Sooey offensively, but the defense must wrap up the Tide's playmakers or they will be in big trouble.

Why Alabama Can Win

Trent Richardson has his time to shine once again running behind a premier offensive line. Marquis Maze is a yard-after-catch machine on screens and slants, so if that continues, it will allow Richardson and Eddie Lacy to run wild. The two combined to run for 300 yards last week against North Texas, and they should combine for close to 200 yards in this game if the passing continues to improve.

What Should Happen

The best defense in the nation can make a statement against a legit Top 15 Arkansas team. Dre Kirkpatrick, Dee Milliner, Will Lowery, DeQuan Menzie and Phelon Jones are as good as it gets with the help from Lester and Barron. They will match up well since their linebackers will feast on the new offensive line of Arkansas.

C.J. Mosley, Jerrell Harris, Courtney Upshaw and Dont'a Hightower will bottle up the run and pin their ears back on Tyler Wilson to avoid any sort of tough home loss.

Experts' Pick: Alabama by 11.5

Drama's Pick: ALABAMA 28, ARKANSAS 20