Pac-12 Expansion: Predicting How the Superconferences Will Play Out

Over the last few weeks, it’s sounded like Texas has been headed to every collegiate conference except the Sun Belt.

The Austin school was rumored to land in either the Pac-12, the Big Ten or the ACC, but the only thing that complicated the matter was the new 300-million dollar Longhorn Network.

All along, the most logical landing spot for Texas has been the Pac-12, but the LHN seemed to be a deal breaker.

Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott may have changed his mind recently, though, as it now sounds that Texas is making a serious push to join Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech in the Pac-12.

That would probably be a death blow to the Big 12 and it would set off a national chain reaction unlike anything we’ve ever seen in college football before.

We could be watching two of the six most powerful organizations in college athletics — the Big East and the Big 12  —disintegrating right before our eyes.

It leaves us with very real and very confusing questions to deal with it.

Is a superconference structure imminent?

How much chaos will it cause?

It’s all still guesswork at this point, but here’s a look at how the conferences could possibly look when the dust settles.

The Pac-16 Conference

The Pac-12 was already a budding giant with the richest TV deal in all of college sports, and adding Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas and Texas Tech into the fold would certainly go a long way towards raising national awareness.

Oklahoma and Oklahoma State is a rivalry that could pay huge dividends over the coming years and Texas is a revenue giant.

Larry Scott is making magic out there on the west coast and if he could somehow pry away these four teams from the Big 12, he deserves major props.

Scott isn’t building a superconference, he’s building a show.

Pac-16 Pod A

Oregon Ducks

Oregon State Beavers

Washington Huskies

Washington State Cougars

Strength Grade: B

Oregon’s a Top 10 program and Washington’s developing into a consistent threat, but Oregon State is taking a turn for the worst and Washington State still has some work to do after falling into the abyss a few years ago.

Pac-16 Pod B

California Golden Bears

Colorado Buffaloes

Stanford Cardinal

Utah Utes

Strength Grade: B-

We'll have to see if Stanford remains dominant after Andrew Luck leaves.

Even if the Cardinal take a bit of a hit, though, Utah will be there to pick up the slack.

As for Colorado and California?

Well, let’s just say, those two teams are going nowhere fast.

Pac-16 Pod C

Arizona Wildcats

Arizona State Sun Devils

USC Trojans

UCLA Bruins

Strength Grade: B

USC hasn’t been the same program since the sanctions but the Trojans still remain a national power.

UCLA, Arizona State and Arizona have been stuck in the We Have the Potential" pool for too many years.

Pac-16 Pod D

Oklahoma Sooners

Oklahoma State Cowboys

Texas Longhorns

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Strength Grade: A

Texas and Oklahoma are two of the sport’s biggest brands and Oklahoma State is a rapidly blooming program.

Texas Tech will have to play fourth fiddle to those three biggies.

We'll have to see if Texas can actually regain all of the momentum that was lost after last season.

The SEC

Have no fear, no matter how many teams the Pac-12 ultimately wants to take and how many headlines the conference wants to make, it won’t change the fact that the SEC will still be the SEC.

It will still be the top conference in college football without question.

Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Florida, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Mississippi State — these programs aren’t going anywhere.

Adding Texas A&M is a big boost to the already overflowing West division, but what’s going to happen to the East?

Who is the mystery team behind Door No. 14?

West Virginia?

Missouri?

A hush-hush ACC school?

Right now, my reasonable guess would be my alma mater West Virginia, but that’s based on wishful thinking.

It really doesn’ t matter, though, nothing’s going to slow down this juggernaut.

Even if the SEC deems that it’s fine with just 13 teams, this will still be the king of college football until a worthy challenger comes along.

SEC East

Florida Gators

Georgia Bulldogs

Kentucky Wildcats

South Carolina Gamecocks

Tennessee Volunteers

Vanderbilt Commodores

West Virginia Mountaineers

Grade: A

Adding West Virginia would be a big coup and really strengthen an already formidable division.

It’s not a power-shifting move.

Still, adding a consistent winning program with a bright, young head coach does help the East gain some ground on the West.

SEC West

Alabama Crimson Tide

Arkansas Razorbacks

Auburn Tigers

LSU Tigers

Mississippi Rebels

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Texas A&M Aggies

Grade: Stacked

It would make sense to split Auburn, LSU, Alabama and Texas A&M all up, because it looks like those four are going to be the big players in the conference in the coming years.

Those are four of the Top 15 programs in the country right now.

Not too bad for one seven-team division.

The Big 16

The Big Ten initially set off the conference realignment explosion when the conference accepted Nebraska out of the Big 12 last summer.

Now it seems that the Big Ten will have to figure out a way to survive in college football’s new superconference arms race.

The Big Ten will have a lot of options to choose from if the Big 12 and the Big East both fall apart, but the conference needs to act quickly.

Notre Dame is the most desirable target out there but you have to make the money work for them, which won’t be easy given the package they’ve got now.

After the Irish, it’s on to teams like Kansas, Kansas State and Missouri out of the Big 12 and Rutgers out of the Big East.

The Big Ten is a strong 12-team league right now but you better believe that they will have to react accordingly to the possible major shifts to the college football landscape.

What would the Big 16 look like?

Big-16 Pod A

Michigan Wolverines

Michigan State Spartans

Ohio State Buckeyes

Penn State Nittany Lions

Strength Grade: A

Wow, talk about a powerpod.

Not only do you get to keep the Michigan vs. Ohio State rivalry intact, you keep Michigan vs. Michigan State alive and well too.

No one knows what’s going to happen to Penn State once JoePa leaves, but they have all the resources to remain respectable.

Big-16 Pod B

Illinois Fighting Illini

Indiana Hoosiers

Purdue Boilermakers

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Strength Grade: B-

Illinois can be a tricky team every now and then, but they just aren’t consistent enough to ever be considered an upper-echelon team.

Out of the four, Notre Dame is the only program that maintains national interest and the Irish will have to get out of their recent funk before you can really start labeling them as a future power program.

Big-16 Pod C

Kansas Jayhawks

Kansas State Wildcats

Nebraska Cornhuskers

Missouri Tigers

Strength Grade: B

Bo Pelini has Nebraska rising back up as one of the nation’s spotlight teams, and Gary Pinkel has had Missouri on the doorstep of a breakthrough for the past three years.

Kansas will dominate in basketball, but they’ve still got a long ways to go in football.

Those Missouri vs. Nebraska games will definitely be worth watching over the next few years.

Big-16 Pod D

Iowa Hawkeyes

Northwestern Wildcats

Minnesota Golden Gophers

Wisconsin Badgers

Strength Grade: B

Wisconsin and Northwestern are both trending upwards and the Badgers are on the verge of becoming a national program.

Iowa has remained strong throughout Kirk Ferentz's tenure and Minnesota now has the resources to climb out of college football’s basement.

The ACC

Miami president Donna Shalala had better be smiling because the coffin she started to build for the Big East back in 2003 has been completed.

The ACC will once again poach as many as four of the eight Big East teams, which is likely to cripple the conference.

In a move that shocked everyone, including Big East commissioner John Marinatto, the ACC has announced that a vote had been passed to accept Syracuse and Pittsburgh.

And as if that’s not enough, it sounds like Connecticut and Rutgers could be on their way too.

Now, those aren’t exactly the four superpowers of the sport, but they would certainly be welcomed additions.

With 16 teams, the ACC could move to the pod structure and they’ve got perfect the regions to do it.

How would a 16-team ACC look?

ACC Pod A

Boston College Golden Eagles

Connecticut Huskies

Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Syracuse Orange

Strength Grade: C+

The Big East leftovers join up to give the ACC some presence in the Northeast.

Rutgers has a chance to make some noise in the coming years, and Syracuse is gaining back a lot of its old real estate around New York, so that could develop into an interesting regional rivalry.

ACC Pod B

Maryland Terrapins

Pittsburgh Panthers

Virginia Cavaliers

Virginia Tech Hokies

Strength Grade: B

Virginia Tech has put up double-digit win seasons for seven straight years and Frank Beamer has built the Hokies into one of the country’s strongest programs.

Pittsburgh is a team that should finally get over the hump with Todd Graham and the other two schools also have intriguing coaches in place.

ACC Pod C

Duke Blue Devils

North Carolina Tar Heels

North Carolina State Wolfpack

Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Strength Grade: C

North Carolina has some real legitimate talent these days but the Tar Heels have to find a coach that can teach them how to be more consistent.

To be honest, none of these teams are really compelling to people who live outside of North Carolina.

ACC Pod D

Clemson Tigers

Florida State Seminoles

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Miami Hurricanes

Strength Grade: B +

We have to see what type of penalties are handed down to Miami but if things aren’t too bad, the Hurricanes vs. Seminoles rivalry could heat up in a hurry and stay hot for years to come.

Miami and Florida State both have the makings of Top 15 programs, and you can’t forget about Clemson and Georgia Tech either.

The Tigers and Yellow Jackets have both proven that when they have the right coaches, they’re both dangerous.

Conference X

There are definitely going to be teams left in the cold if all of this goes down.

Not only could the Big 12 fall, the Big East is in some serious danger as well.

What’s going to happen to the less desirable schools like Baylor and other conference leftovers who would be in search of a home?

Will the Big East just start sending out invitations to any school east of California?

Boise State?

BYU?

Baylor?

Would they all form some sort of second-rate superconference?

Conference X

Baylor Bears

Boise State Broncos

BYU Cougars

Central Florida Knights

Cincinnati Bearcats

Houston Cougars

Iowa State Cyclones

Louisville Cardinals

South Florida Bulls

TCU Horned Frogs

Strength Grade: C+

This is just all-out speculation.

We have to wait and see what happens with the Big East and Big 12 before we start projecting a potential misfit conference.

This example of a 10-team league would be a conference with some quality potential, though.

How Would the Conferences Rank?

1. SEC

2. Pac-16

3. Big-16

4. ACC

5. Conference X

Make no mistake about it, if the Pac-12 adds Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas and Texas Tech, that’s it, that makes them a powerful force for the future.

College football’s first potential "superconference" would be a huge success on the field and it would be a wild financial success to boot.

Still, even though the Pac-16 sounds loaded on paper, until they prove they can knock the king off his throne, the SEC will still reign supreme as college football’s top dog.

Based on the moves they both make, the Big Ten and the ACC will also have the potential to compete long-term with the SEC but it’s going to take some more development by the weaker teams in the two conferences to make that happen.