Boston Red Sox Collapse: Can Tampa Bay Really Catch Boston?

With only a few games left in the 2011 season, the Tampa Bay Rays are hot on the tails of the Boston Red Sox.

The Red Sox have struggled in September going 3-11 and have seen their leads in both the AL East as well as the AL Wild Card dwindle.

Boston has dropped from leading AL East over the New York Yankees to down to four-and-a-half games, and their wild-card lead over the Rays has shrunk from nine games to just four heading into a four-game set this weekend.

The Rays dominated the Sox in their first game Thursday as Evan Longoria, BJ Upton and Casey Kotchman all went yard in the Rays' 9-2 victory.

Josh Beckett returned from a sprained ankle to start Friday in a must-win game. Beckett, was at the top of the list of the several different Red Sox pitchers who were sidelined by injuries.

The many injuries to key players have been the main reason the Red Sox have struggled as Beckett, as well as Erik Bedard, JD Drew, Clay Buchholz, and Kevin Youkilis, have all missed time

However, Beckett came back just at the right time as the Red Sox were able to pull out the victory last night in a 4-3 victory.

The Red Sox wild-card lead is back to four games with two games left in the weekend series.

Tampa Bay does not have time or schedule in their corner, but if they can take the last two games, the Red Sox hopes of making the playoffs could get that much smaller.

We look ahead to the final two matchups between these two teams as well as the rest of the season.

Saturday: Jeff Niemann vs. Jon Lester

In the Saturday matinee, the Red Sox had the ball off to Jon Lester and they will need him to step up big.

The last time Lester faced the Rays last Sunday at Tropicana Field, the left-hander game up four runs, eight hits, and three walks, as the Rays completed the sweep of the Sox.

Lester will have to keep watch of Rays third baseman Evan Longoria, who has caught fire late in the season, getting 16 hits, four home runs and 14 RBI in the month of September.

The Red Sox will also have their work cut out for them in this game as Jeff Niemann goes to the mound for the Rays.

Niemann has dominated Boston this season, allowing only 5 hits and two runs in 17 innings and has compiled an ERA of 1.06 with 20 strikeouts.

Some of Boston's best hitters, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Adrian Gonzalez, and Kevin Youkilis, who is out of the lineup Saturday, have only gone 4-for-35 lifetime against Niemann.

If the Red Sox cannot get the better of Niemann, Lester will have to come up big in shutting down the Rays hot bats.

This is a must-win for the Rays if they want their dream comeback to continue, but if they come up short, their dreams may be all but gone.

Sunday: Tim Wakefield vs. David Price

If the Rays can win Saturday's game, then they take a three-game deficit into a very winnable game on Sunday.

The Red Sox's Tim Wakefield will get the start and he has struggled against the Rays. In 10-and-a-third innings pitched against Tampa Bay, Wakefield has surrendered 10 hits, seven runs, five of them earned, and six walks.

He has only struck out two batters and has an ERA of 4.35 throughout the season.

The month of September has not been any kinder to knuckle-baller as he a 5.40 ERA in only 15 innings pitched, allowing 12 hits and 10 runs, nine of them being earned.

Wakefield has been forced to step up with the depleted Red Sox starting rotation and it is clear that his time in the big leagues may soon be coming to an end.

For the Rays, their talented young ace David Price gets the start.

Price has not had the best season, going 12-12 with an ERA of 3.34, but he has played well against Boston, going 3-1 this season and the pressure will be on Price to deliver once again.

If the Rays can finish out this series with back-to-back wins, the Red Sox lead will only be two games, which is a much more achievable goal for the Rays.

Rest of the Season

Looking at the rest of the season shows us why these last two games between the Red Sox and Rays are so important.

If the Red Sox are able to win the last two games of the series, they take a six-game lead into the final three series of the year.

The Rays have a huge mountain to climb as two of their last three series are against the powerful New York Yankees.

Even worse is that the Rays have to go to New York first to face the Bronx Bombers, so they will not even have the luxury of playing in front of their home fans at Tropicana Field.

The Red Sox magic number to win the Wild Card is now at nine with 12 games left to play.

According to Charlie Saponora of ESPN.com, with the Red Sox victory in last night's game, the chances for the Rays to complete their comeback are microscopic.

"At this point, if the Red Sox win just half of their remaining games, the Rays would have to win 10 of their final 12 in order to simply force a tie in the standings," said Saponora. 

"Let's just say the Sox win only a quarter of their remaining 12 games; that would put them at 90 wins. The Rays would still have to win over half of their remaining games (seven of 12) to force a tie."

If the Rays are able to take the last two from the Red Sox and sweep the Toronto Blue Jays next weekend, they will still need to pick up five wins in the seven games they play against New York, which could be the toughest task to ask of a team.

For the Red Sox, they could not ask for an easier schedule to finish the year. Yes, they have to take on the Bronx Bombers next weekend, but on both sides of that series, they take on the struggling Baltimore Orioles.

There is a very good chance that the Sox will win at least half of their final 12 games, which leaves little wiggle room for the Rays.