College Football Picks Week 3: Florida State vs. Oklahoma and More

What a week we have on our hands this weekend. The ACC comes into this weekend with a crucial slate of games that may determine its near future as well as the opinion from the nation.

Is the ACC a top three conference in America this season? We all know the SEC is the cream of the crop, but which conference is the next best?

The ACC will find out going up against a few heavyweights from the Big 12, Big Ten and the Big East.

Week 1 Selections: 13-2

Week 2 Selections: 11-4

No. 21 Auburn at Clemson-Noon, ABC

Facts: Dabo Sweeney is an alumnus of Auburn's much hated rival Alabama, playing from 1989-92 as a wide receiver/tight end, and was later an assistant coach from 1993-2000. Dabo had Clemson out in front, 17-3, at halftime before Cam Newton stormed back for the 27-24 victory in overtime. Auburn has also defeated Clemson 14 straight times, with the last loss coming back in 1951.

Matchup: Auburn D-Line vs Clemson O-Line

Auburn is two deep up front and it wreaked havoc on Mississippi State last weekend. Meanwhile, Clemson struggled against Wofford's triple option, but its line didn't do much better. Without a running game, Clemson has zero chance at pulling the upset (even though experts list them as favorites).  

X-Factor: Andre Ellington, Clemson

Tajh Boyd may be the obvious choice, but Andre Ellington is my pick to click. Auburn may have two better backs, but Ellington has the speed and power to break a few would-be tacklers. He is the bell cow for his Tigers and should also catch a few passes in the backfield.

Why Auburn can win: Clemson has allowed 218 yards per game (107th) against the run, and the Tigers have two backs that could do some damage. Plus, Clemson has already allowed seven sacks this season (104th). Auburn has won 10 consecutive games that have been decided by single digits and this game should come down to the wire. 

Why Clemson can win: Auburn's defense has been torched (112th total defense) through the air and has been gashed against the run.

Experts' Pick: Clemson By 3.5

Drama's Pick: CLEMSON 34, AUBURN 28

No. 18 West Virginia at Maryland-Noon, ESPNU

Facts: Maryland is 27-4 in non-conference home games since 1998. Randy Edsall went just 1-6 against West Virginia, though he did win last season, 16-13 in overtime. West Virginia has won six straight since '03 Gator Bowl. 

Matchup: Cameron Chism against Tavon Austin

The Terps' pass defense held up against Miami in the opener, and they come into this game with some extra rest and time to prepare for a high-octane Mountaineers' passing attack. West Virginia has not had a ton of success running the bacon, mainly because it is a pass-oriented team. If Maryland can get off the field on third downs and not allow the big plays, then it has a great shot at pulling off the upset. 

X-Factor: Joe Vellano, Maryland

Coming off a huge defensive touchdown in the opener, Vellano will have a large role in this game. He can plug up the run and can harass Geno Smith, which could lead to a few turnovers.

Why West Virginia can win: They own this series, and just because Dana Holgorsen has never coached in this series before does not mean jack. The Mountaineers are a legitimate top 20 team when they're clicking offensively 

Why Maryland can win: These Terps finished the season ranked, and yet people forgot all about them during the preseason. Danny O'Brien is the best pure passer in the ACC and has a ton of viable options to spin it to.

Experts' Pick: Maryland By 1

Drama's Pick: MARYLAND 27, WEST VIRGINIA 24

Tennessee at No. 16 Florida-3:30 CBS

Facts: Florida has won six straight meetings, but there is one telling stat in recent memory: The team that has ran for the most yards has won eight straight and 20 of the last 21 games. Florida is coming off a season in which it won only one home game in SEC play—though it has knocked off the Vols by double digits in four consecutive games.

Matchup: Zach Rogers, Justin Hunter and Da'Rick Rogers against Marcus Roberson, Cody Riggs, Jeremy Brown and Moses Jenkins

After throwing for over 400 passing yards, watch out for Tyler Bray's weapons down the field. If Tennessee wants to pull off the upset, it better be able to get production from its two studs in Rogers and Hunter.

X-Factor: Tauren Poole/RB

If you read the stat above, you understand how important it is to find a little bit of a running game. Is Tyler Bray good enough to carry this offense on his own? I could make Bray my x-factor, but that would be unfair for just a sophomore. Poole is the main ball carrier and he better be able break some tackle since he may not find much room to run.

Why Tennessee can win: The Vols have quite the explosive offense in the passing game with two legit All-SEC caliber receivers. They are an athletic, physical group who can give the Gators' secondary fits. Assuming they find a way to win the turnover battle, it would give "Rocky Top" a huge advantage. 

Why Florida can win: Tennessee's defense is not great by any means, as the Bearcats put up some nice offensive numbers. Florida should not have a major issues moving the rock with John Brantley's bevy of options. Besides having the more balanced offense, the athletic defense gives the Gators a slight advantage overall.

Experts' Pick: Florida By 9.5

Drama's Pick: FLORIDA 28, TENNESSEE 20 

No. 6 Stanford at Arizona-10:15, ESPN

Facts: Home team has won three straight games. Stanford struggled at home last season in the first half before blowing it open to go on and win, 42-17.

Matchup: Dan Buckner, David Roberts and Austin Hill against Barry Browning, Johnson Badenosi, Michael Thomas and Delano Howell

Arizona can test the Cardinal secondary with its viable options. Forget Juron Criner for just a second. This is one of the top corps in America with Criner and it still is more than capable without the All-American. Stanford's secondary is very questionable without a giant pass rush this season.

X-Factor: Keola Antolin/RB

If Arizona cannot find a running game, it will be in a world of trouble. Shayne Skov and Chase Thomas are two legit studs that can hit you in the mouth. Arizona can spin it in the passing game, but if it cannot find a way to slow the tempo and run it on occasion, it has no shot at pulling the upset.

Why Stanford can win: Andrew Luck could do exactly what Brandon Weeden did to the Cats, despite not having the same talent. Luck has three solid red-zone targets in Coby Fleener, Zach Ertz and Chris Owusu. Stepfan Taylor is running behind a few All-American linemen, which would put an end to the Cats standing a chance.

Why Arizona can win: Nick Foles finally has a realistic opportunity to go bonkers in the national spotlight. It was one season ago where the Wildcats knocked off a top 10 Iowa squad, so why not do it two years in a row? Foles has a loaded receiving corp, led by Texas transfer Dan Buckner. Plus, Arizona's defense should not get carved as bad as it did against Oklahoma State last week. I really question Stanford's speed and wonder if Foles will torch it.

Experts' Pick: Stanford By 10

Drama's Pick:  STANFORD 38, ARIZONA 24 (CHANGE: CRINER NOT EXPECTED)

No. 15 Michigan State at Notre Dame-3:30, NBC

Facts: Michigan State has had its success in South Bend, but this series has been back and forth as of late. Nine of the last 11 meetings have been decided by single digits, with four of six decided by a field goal or less. Last year's game was tied at 7, 14, 21 and 28 before the Spartans won on a fake field goal. 

Matchup: BJ Cunningham and Keshawn Martin against Gary Gray and Robert Blanton

It should not come as a surprise since the Irish were torched in the fourth quarter against Michigan's receivers, and if the same happens this weekend, then 0-3 is likely. The Irish should have another lead in the fourth quarter, so hanging onto the lead depends on the ball-hawking secondary, or lack thereof. 

X-Factor: Cierre Wood/RB

I tried forewarning everybody their red-zone woes if they could not find a way to give Wood the rock more often near the goal line. Wood has ran for more than 200 yards on 46 carries and two TDs in the first two games. He needs to continue to tote the rock, but needs more goaline carries since every time the Irish attempt to throw the ball, they turn it over.

Why Notre Dame can win: MSU's defense has gone up against paper thin offenses so far and running into the Irish is far from easy to stop. Michael Floyd, TJ Jones and Theo Reddick make a great trio of targets for Tommy Rees to throw to. The Spartans' secondary will be tested early and often with Wood running well. Plus, Manti Te'o and the front seven should bottle up the running game, which puts a lot of pressure on the passing game of Sparty. 

Why Michigan State can win: Edwin Baker and BJ Cunningham give this Spartans team a huge edge against most opponents. Kirk Cousins is one hell of a signal caller and he rarely turns the ball over. He has a nice set of targets down field and his backfield is loaded with talent. The offensive line only has two linemen returning, but that has not gotten in the way of their success.

Experts' Pick: ND By 5

Drama's Pick: NOTRE DAME 31, MICHIGAN STATE 24

No. 17 Ohio State @ Miami-7:30, ESPN

Facts: This is a rematch from last season's 36-24 loss as well as one of the most exciting BCS National Championships of all time. Ohio State has won the last two meetings, but Jacory Harris did throw four picks last season. 

Match-Up: Travis Benjamin vs Travis Howard (Both return from suspension)

In the very first game of Benjamin's season, he is the key in this passing game for Jacory Harris. The Buckeyes were able to apply pressure and made Harris pay the price last season. It was critical in deciding the outcome of the game.

X-Factor: Jacory Harris, Miami/QB

Guess who? Harris is the easy pick for the x-factor since he literally changed the game last season. Miami was ready to cut the lead to two points but ended up throwing a pick that was returned for 80 yards. If Harris turns the ball over more than twice, it is nearly a lock that the Buckeyes come out victorious once again.

Why Ohio State can win: The Buckeyes owned the game at the line of scrimmage last season and things may not change much. Their offensive line is still good without Mike Adams, and the defensive line does not get worse with the suspension of Solomon Thomas. If Joe Basuerman gets a running game going, then he will be able to find his security blanket in Jake Stoneburner early and often. 

Why Miami can win: The athleticism and speed matches up extremely well with the Buckeyes, but Lamar Miller must run for more than 100 yards. I like those chances—he is an electric runner behind a solid line. If Harris can buy some time with his feet and throw on the run without turning the ball over, then things will come down to the wire. Plus, defensively, they will pin their ears back and bottle up the run.

Experts' Pick: Miami By 1.5

Drama's Pick: MIAMI 31, OHIO STATE 21  

No. 3 LSU at No. 25 Mississippi State-8:00, ESPN

Facts: The Bulldogs are 15-5 in home openers since 1991, including three straight wins. LSU has knocked off Mississippi State 11 straight with an average score of 39-13. The last time the Bayou Bengals visited Starkville two years ago, it was a game where they won, 30-26, despite losing the first-down battle, 21-12.

Matchup: Ryan Baker, Karnell Hatcherr and Stefoin Francois against Chris Relf and Vick Ballard

Most have the LSU front four paired up against the Bulldogs' nicked-up offensive line as the key matchup to look for. However, Relf and Ballard carry this offense and they better be able to break some tackles at the second level if they expect to move the chains.

X-Factor: Jarrett Lee/QB

If the Tigers expect to win this game, Lee must continue to play mistake-free football and be able to put the ball on the money to his receivers. He does not need to win this game on his own, but he cannot lose it by turning the ball over. It will be a tough road game on Thursday night, which could cause some issues for the Tigers' offense if the Bulldogs can avoid getting gashed up front.

Why Mississippi State can win: It has a great track record in home openers, though it has not played the caliber of LSU quite yet. Dan Mullen has a great way of getting his team motivated and pumped up against ranked teams. The Bulldogs' defense is much better than they showed against Auburn and they are more than capable of bottling up the Tigers run game. If they do, the Bulldogs could start pinning their ears back and force Lee into making a few mistakes. Chris Relf and Vick Ballard might just be the best QB-RB combo in the SEC.   

Why LSU can win: The Bulldogs have only won two of their last 10 games against ranked teams. Les Miles is arguably the best big-game coach in the nation for a reason: He knows how to keep things simple for his team and always lets it loose when he needs to. Jarrett Lee has played in hostile environments before, and they may be the best team in America on both sides of the line of scrimmage. If Auburn thrashed and dashed the Bulldogs, what will the Tigers do? It may be a gamble, but I need to pick a few upsets this weekend.

Experts' Pick: LSU By 3.5

Drama's Pick: MISSISSIPPI STATE 24, LSU 23  

No. 1 Oklahoma at No. 5 Florida State-8:00, ABC

Facts: Oklahoma's last nine losses have all been either on the road or at neutral stadiums. Florida State is 10-12 all-time in front of College Gameday. Oklahoma is 17-8 all-time. The Noles, however, have only had one of these games since the 2007 season, whereas Oklahoma has had nine. 

Oklahoma dominated last season, 47-17, by scoring touchdowns on its first four possessions. Florida State's EJ Manuel threw a touchdown pass on the final play of the game, so the score did not truly indicate how dominating of a performance it was. FSU is also just 5-12 in its last 17 games against top 10 squads. Losing to Oklahoma by 30 and Florida by 27 does not make things any easier.

Match-Up: Ryan Broyles, Kenny Stills and Trey Franks against Greg Reid, Michael Harris and Xavier Rhodes

The Sooners and Seminoles game could arguably be the most exciting matchup we may witness all season long. There are future pros all over the field and the young talent will be amazing to watch. It should truly be a blessing to watch these two great programs compete with such superstar talent. Whoever gets an edge here will probably win the ball game. 

X-Factor: Brandon Jenkins, Florida State

How does one put a stop to Landry Jones and the high-powered Boomer Sooner offense? Throw in some pressure and even more pressure. There are a bevy of options that I could choose as my x-factor for the game, but the Seminoles have no chance to win this game if they cannot force Jones into making a few errant throws. That will only happen if the front four can put pressure and interrupt the rhythm that Jones has with his receivers. 

Why Oklahoma can win: It is the top-ranked team in America for a reason. It is balanced, with an underrated ground game that features a former walk-on in Dominique Whaley, and its playmakers down the field are incredible at getting yards after the catch. Its quick-paced tempo offensively has not been stopped because it never seems to turn the ball over. The defense is extremely quick with a ball-hawking secondary that can lay the lumber. It is a scary-good team that many expect to win the BCS National Championship. 

Why Florida State can win: It may be the only team on Oklahoma's schedule that could hold the Sooners under 35 points. FSU has arguably the best defensive line in the nation and one of the more athletic secondaries as well. If there is a group of defensive backs who can cover the Sooners, it is this loaded group in Tallahassee. Special teams is what could determine this game as PK Dustin Hopkins, P Shaun Powell and PR/KR Greg Reid must have the game of their lives. 

Experts' Pick: Oklahoma By 3

Drama's Pick: FLORIDA STATE 30, OKLAHOMA 28

Drama's Other Picks: Boise St, Texas, Iowa, Wisconsin, ASU (over ILL) and Nebraska