BCS Controversy: Nightmare Scenarios

Once again, late in the season there is a BCS nightmare in the making. The only difference this year from previous years is more potential nightmares. With that being said with two weeks to go before the selections are made here is another reason why the BCS should be abolished once and for all.

Starting out the scenarios we have Alabama. The Crimson Tide is obviously undefeated and controls its own destiny but by no means has an easy remaining schedule. Alabama probably has a win versus Auburn, but going into the SEC championship against Florida leaves questions. Florida will be a tough matchup for Alabama and my opinion is a victory for Florida.

What does that mean for the possible BCS picture?

It means Florida probably has to move up to the national championship game, becoming the No. 2 team in the country. There is no justifiable reason why the pollsters could still have Alabama playing for the national championship with Florida clearly beating them. I find it very unlikely the pollsters want two teams from the same conference playing each other for the championship whether it be the Big 12 or SEC.

The biggest question of them all is where Texas Tech lands after a loss to Oklahoma. The biggest problem predicting where they land is the margin of victory for Oklahoma. Tech did not just lose, they lost badly. 

A case could be made for Tech moving all the way down to No. 7 or No. 8, but realistically I think they end up at No. 5. Tech did beat Texas after all.

Tech still has to play Baylor and baring anything strange happening sits in decent shape. They still have a chance for the Big 12 championship. More on that later.  

Next up is Texas who plays a big rivalry game in Texas A&M. Although there is a slight chance A&M can win this game, it probably will not happen. A&M is terrible this year and Texas is so much better.

Florida as mentioned is going to play Alabama in the SEC championship game, but they still have a tough opponent in Florida State. It is not that much of a stretch in this rivalry game to say Florida State can win this game.

This means Florida takes a big hit in the rankings and probably out of the BCS picture completely. They could still come back and beat Alabama though in the SEC championship and secure a spot in a BCS game, although not the championship. In that case Alabama may not make any BCS game.

Oklahoma has to play a tough matchup against state rival Oklahoma State who will not be a cakewalk of a game. Oklahoma has had trouble in this rivalry in recent years and it is in Stillwater this year too.

If Oklahoma loses, Tech plays for the Big 12 championship no questions asked because of tiebreakers. If Oklahoma wins then it might be enough to push them over Texas to play for the Big 12 Championship.

In the Big 12, when there is three way tie it comes down to the highest BCS rating after the final regular season game. Tech, Texas, and Oklahoma all have a shot at winning the Big 12 South depending on what happens. It is a roll of the dice on who is rated higher at the end of the season.  

Then there is the potential Big 12 championship trap game. Missouri will be playing one of those three schools and is capable of pulling off a major upset against any of them.

That means Missouri clinches the automatic BCS bid with the win and its possible one or both of the Big 12 south teams are back in the national championship picture without playing in their conference championship.

Utah is going to be playing in a BCS game automatically since they have won out, it is just a matter of where. Depending on what happens Utah has a decent chance at playing for a national championship although it is unlikely the pollsters will let that happen. They want major schools playing for the championship regardless. The BCS is the only playoff system in any sport that punishes teams for going undefeated.  

Boise State could possibly earn an at large bid, too.

Penn State has already clinched a Rose Bowl scenario, but there is a slight chance they might be playing in a bigger game if all the scenarios happen above. It is unlikely all of the scenarios happen, although not impossible.

Something else that is worth watching is the Oregon State game against Oregon next week. If Oregon State wins they automatically clinch a BCS bid because they beat USC earlier in the season. It is possible USC gets locked out of a BCS bowl depending on the other scenarios discussed above.

All and all there has never been so many scenarios going into the final week of the regular season. I admit not all of the scenarios will happen above, but it is very possible some will happen. No one should be thinking about bowl games until the very final game of the season. Never has one or two conferences been so dominant in college football. One thing is for sure I will be pulling for as many of these scenarios to happen as possible.