Duke Basketball: Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios for Each Blue Devils Player

The Duke Blue Devils have lost their three stars from a year ago in Nolan Smith, Kyrie Irving and Kyle Singler. After an early exit in the 2011 NCAA tournament, Duke is looking to rebound, but that would require the best-case scenario from more than a few of these players.

With 13 players on the roster, 12 of which should have an impact, Mike Krzyzewski is going to have some big choices to make before the season starts.

For each player on the roster there are goals they want to achieve, and situations the Blue Devils want to avoid. While career-ending injuries are obviously the worst-case scenarios, I will not use injuries where possible.

Tyler Thornton

A hard-working point guard, Tyler Thornton is looking to make the 2011-12 season a good one. He seems to be the starting point guard for the beginning of the season, but that may change. Thornton played a minimal role last season as he was behind Kyrie Irving and Nolan Smith all year, but he could begin the year as a starter.

Best-Case Scenario

The best thing Thornton could do is to be a starter at the beginning of the season, but then ride the bench in favor of freshman Quinn Cook. Cook has tremendous upside, while Thornton does not seem to be a high-caliber player.

Worst-Case Scenario

The worst thing that could happen to Thornton is riding the bench all season. If Austin Rivers or Seth Curry plays point guard, Thornton will not play much this season. A lack of playing time again in his sophomore season would be worse than a redshirt season because he would lose another year of eligibility.

Mason Plumlee

Mason Plumlee is one of Duke's many forwards this season. A 6'10" junior, Plumlee considered going pro this season but decided to return to college. Mason is the best of the three Plumlees, but he still needs to improve if he wants to become dominant.

Best-Case Scenario

If Mason is to become a truly great player he must work on his offensive game, especially in the paint. If he can develop a good post-move or two he could become the elite big man that Duke demands.

Mason averaged 7.1 points and 8.5 rebounds per game last season, with a lot of his points coming on the fast-break. While he can certainly provide highlight-reel dunks, he has not become a threat with his back to the basket yet.

Worst-Case Scenario

If Mason continues to play the way he has offensively, he is not going to be a good player in the NBA. He needs to address the fact that he cannot score inside.

Too big to be a small forward and yet not a big enough threat inside, Mason is a tweener-forward in the NBA for all the wrong reasons.

His worst-case scenario would be not changing anything and still trying to get into the NBA.

Miles Plumlee

Miles Plumlee is the older brother of Mason, and he is the only senior on Coach K's 2011-12 Duke squad. Miles has not gotten a lot of playing time in his collegiate career, averaging 6.9, 16.4 and 17.0 minutes per game in his first three seasons, respectively.

Miles is the biggest of the Plumlees at 6'10" and 245 pounds, and he could be the most forceful if given the chance.

Best-Case Scenario

The best thing that could happen for Miles is that he is given the chance to thrive in his senior season. Despite not getting playing time in his three previous seasons, Miles has shown flashes of brilliance, including good moves in the paint and being a good rebounder.

Miles has the ability to play a major role for the Blue Devils, and the most he can hope for in about 25 minutes per game in this crowded Duke roster. 

Worst-Case Scenario

The absolute worst thing that can happen for Miles is to get even less playing time than his 17 minutes per game last season. Miles is a great player, and it would be a shame to see his talent wasted because of an overcrowded roster.

While he probably won't be an NBA player, Miles still has the ability to be a great player in college, and his size greatly helps him at this level. However, he can't produce if he isn't given the chance.

Marshall Plumlee

Marshall Plumlee is the youngest of the three Plumlee brothers. Marshall is coming in as a freshman this season and hopes are high for him.

However, Marshall may have to redshirt his freshman year. While I have been advocating this for a while so that Marshall can put on some muscle, the idea is becoming more popular. Dan Wiederer has also talked about this possibility, and it could be considered a good thing or a bad thing.

Best-Case Scenario:

While I really want to say that the best thing for Marshall would be to redshirt, gain some weight and dominate over the next four seasons, I think that the best thing for him would be to play about 10 to 20 minutes per game so that he can get his feet wet while bulking up.

If Marshall does redshirt there is no guarantee he won't go to the NBA early, so Mike Krzyzewski should try to get the most out of him as possible.

Worst-Case Scenario:

The worst thing for Marshall would be if he did not redshirt but did not play much during the season. If he plays only 6.9 minutes per game in his freshman season like his brother Miles did, he will not play much and could be wasting a year of eligibility.

It is not clear if Marshall will be good enough to go to the NBA early, but using his eligibility for the sake of using his eligibility will not benefit anyone, especially not Marshall.

Josh Hairston

Josh Hairston is our fourth forward in a row. He is going to be a sophomore after playing limited minutes in his freshman season. With so many players on the roster Hairston could lose just about all of his playing time, which would essentially cut his career two years short, but if he plays another player will lose time.

Hairston is a "bubble player" because he could play a decent role or do nothing at all.

Best-Case Scenario:

If Hairston redshirts he will save his eligibility and playing time for others. Hairston will retain a year of eligibility, have another year to develop and will find a role with the team and get playing time in his last three seasons.

Worst-Case Scenario:

The worst thing that Hairston could possibly do would be to transfer. If Hairston does not take his lack of playing time well and decides to transfer to a school where he will play, that school will gain a good player and Duke will lose one. Hairston has a lot of potential, and if he can swallow his pride to redshirt this season he will get his chance with one of college basketball's best programs.

Quinn Cook

Quinn Cook is a freshman point guard for the Duke Blue Devils. He is a quick player with excellent court vision who likes to drive through the lane because once inside he can either score acrobatically or kick it out for three. Cook will become a starting point guard for Duke, but the question is when.

Best-Case Scenario

The best thing that can happen for Cook is to sit behind Tyler Thornton or Seth Curry for the beginning of the season but emerge as the starting point guard as the season progresses. Cook still has to mature a bit more before the season kicks off, but he also needs to learn to take control of the team and lead it during its ACC schedule.

Worst-Case Scenario

The worst thing that could happen for Cook would be to start him before he is ready. If Cook is not at a high enough level for the Blue Devils he will hurt the team and be forced to ride the bench, which would delay his development as a player.

Alex Murphy

Alex Murphy decided to graduate from high school a year early to play with the Duke Blue Devils. He is a 6'8" forward who is extremely versatile, and Mike Krzyzewski will find ways to utilize his skills.

Murphy can provide athletic dunks on the breakaway, or he can hit open threes in the half-court set. Murphy is one of eight forwards, however, and playing time will be limited.

Best-Case Scenario

The most Murphy can hope for is about 20 minutes per game. He is a great player, but he is much younger than anyone else on the roster and he could use a bit more time to develop.

Worst-Case Scenario

The worst thing for Murphy would be if he played well under 10 minutes per game. While redshirting would also be terrible because it would make his leaving high school early useless, he would still have another year of eligibility. If Murphy does not play much, the season is essentially a waste for such a young, promising player.

Michael Gbinije

Michael Gbinije is a good athlete and a great player defined by his fundamentally sound game. He is unselfish, does not force the action and is everything else the Duke Blue Devils look for in a player. He is a freshman who can play either guard or forward, but it is still going to be tough to find playing time.

Best-Case Scenario

The most Gbinije can hope for after his pitiful performance in China is to get about 10 minutes per game. If he redshirts that would not be the worst thing to happen because he could continue to develop, but it really depends on how well he is performing right now in practice.

Worst-Case Scenario

The worst thing that could happen for Gbinije would be if he gets less than five minutes per game. If he does use a year of eligibility he deserves to play at least five minutes per game, and anything less than that would not be worth keeping him on the team, which would likely hurt his confidence. 

Andre Dawkins

Andre Dawkins is a sharp-shooting junior who is looking to step up in his last two years. He averaged eight points and two rebounds per game last season, shooting 43 percent from three. Dawkins is very similar to Seth Curry, but it seems that Dawkins will get fewer minutes.

Best-Case Scenario

The best for Dawkins is to take control in his senior year and shoot even closer to 50 percent from three. If he can stand out by improving his already incredible shot, he will assure himself some playing time.

Worst-Case Scenario

The worst thing that could happen to Dawkins would be if his playing time drops from the 21.0 minutes per game last season. He has a lot of potential and should be a big contributor, but it would be a waste of such a good player if he did not get more playing time, or at least the same amount.

Todd Zafirovski

Todd Zafirovski is going to be a junior for the Duke Blue Devils, but he has only played 11 minutes in his Duke career, all of which came in his sophomore season. Zafirovski is not going to contribute much to the team, but that doesn't mean that he wants to ride the bench the whole season.

Best-Case Scenario

The best thing for Zafirovski would be if he played at least five minutes in total this season, which would allow him to have something to reminisce about with his kids in a few years.

Worst-Case Scenario

The worst thing for Zafirovski would be if he did not play at all this season, because he wants to be ready to start on Senior Night next season. 

Seth Curry

Seth Curry is a junior guard for the Duke Blue Devils. Younger brother of NBA player Stephen Curry, Seth shows some of the same skills as his brother. In fact, Mike Krzyzewski may be leaning heavily on Curry this season.

Best-Case Scenario

The best thing for Curry would be if he emerged as a leader both on and off the court. He probably won't be the leading scorer, but he can contribute in a big way. Curry's stats disappointed last season, but he still averaged 9.5 points, 2.0 assists and 1.9 rebounds per game. Curry has the potential to take control of a game, and he could take control of this team soon.

Worst-Case Scenario

The worst thing that could happen to Curry would be if he did not emerge as the leader and kept his role as a wing-man who could play point guard at times. Duke fans expect a lot from Curry, and he needs to step up and be a leader if he wants to fulfill those expectations.

Ryan Kelly

Ryan Kelly is a 6'11" forward who can play inside or out. He could emerge as Duke's leader during the season, and I would not be surprised to see him trail only Austin Rivers in scoring. Kelly averaged only 6.7 points and 3.8 rebounds per game, but he started to play a much bigger role down the stretch, and now that Nolan Smith, Kyrie Irving and Kyle Singler are gone, Kelly will have to step up.

Best-Case Scenario

The best thing for Kelly would be if he could play up to 30 minutes per game and help lead the team. He led the team during its trip through China, averaging 15.0 points and 8.3 rebounds per game, which were the best and second-best for the team, respectively. 

Worst Case Scenario

The worst thing for Kelly would be if his success in China was halted in the season either due to injury or because of the different levels of competition. We want to see Kelly succeed, and it would be nice if he kept his momentum going.

Austin Rivers

Austin Rivers is the phenomenal freshman for the Duke Blue Devils. The No. 1 recruit in the 2011 class, Rivers has ice in his blood. He loves to take big shots and he usually makes them, with range out to 30 feet and he's a great, NBA-ready runner. Rivers can do it all for the Blue Devils, and his first game in college basketball is highly anticipated.

Best-Case Scenario

The best thing for Rivers would be to allow Curry to lead the team emotionally and as a floor general so that he can focus on playing his game and scoring for the Blue Devils. Rivers has the potential to be a great player in college, and his 14.3 points per game in China (tied for second-best on the team) was actually a disappointment because Rivers is so good.

Worst-Case Scenario

The worst thing that could happen to Rivers would be to suffer the same fate as Kyrie Irving. To play a few games, suffer an injury and try to work his way back in the NCAA tournament would be terrible for Rivers, and would hurt the team because Rivers is going to be a lottery pick in the NBA draft, no matter what happens. 

Josh Schoch is an aspiring sports writer dedicated to bringing you everything related to Duke basketball, college basketball, the MLB, NFL, NBA, fantasy football and more. Follow him on Twitter.