Projecting the NL West in 2012

The Arizona Diamondbacks are running away with the NL West in 2011, but with the San Francisco Giants anticipating the return of Buster Posey next season, as well as a healthier roster, the race for a division title in 2012 may look vastly different.

Who will be San Francisco's biggest challenger for a division crown next season?

San Diego Padres

After a surprising showing in 2010 in which they were eliminated from playoff contention on the final day of the regular season by the Giants, the San Diego Padres regressed into their former selves in 2011.

After losing Adrian Gonzalez to free agency, an offense that already had issues was now downright awful.

And it shows. Despite great pitching, the Padres have been out of contention for quite some time now.

San Diego is currently 20 games under .500 (62 - 82), good for dead last in the National League West.

How will they fare in 2012?

In short, the same as in 2011: they have zero hitting, and with Heath Bell becoming a free agent at season's end, their bullpen could suffer a body blow if Bell relocates.

Projected 2012 finish: 5th

Colorado Rockies

Coming into spring training this year, the Colorado Rockies were thought to be the biggest threat to the Giants' quest to repeat as division champions.

My, how things have changed.

The Rockies now find themselves in fourth place in the NL West, with a record of 67-76. Colorado has hit well, as expected with Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez anchoring the middle of a lineup that plays at Coors Field.

But the pitching has been atrocious for the Rockies in 2011. Colorado is ranked 14th out of 16 NL teams in team ERA, at 4.37. Opponents have hit .266 against them this year, and in a new era of pitching dominance, that's not going to cut it.

The Rockies will very likely try to improve their pitching ranks, including their bullpen, this offseason, and with an offense that ranks in the top three in the league, that will make them competitive.

Projected 2012 finish: 2nd

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers were victimized by off-field drama of the soap opera variety in 2011, with ownership suffering a divorce and filing for bankruptcy.

The result has been a lost season for a storied franchise, and the Dodgers find themselves at 70-72 for the season, in third place behind the Giants and D'Backs in the NL West.

Two bright spots for the Dodgers, however, are ace Clayton Kershaw and NL MVP candidate Matt Kemp.

Kershaw is 17-5 with a 2.45 ERA, and is considered one of the favorites to win the NL Cy Young Award this season.

Kemp is hitting .318 with 32 home runs and 107 RBI.

If these two do take home some hardware this season, it would be remarkable, as a team that will do well to finish at .500 for the season would have the league's best starting pitcher and best hitter, yet couldn't compete for a playoff spot.

Whether the Dodgers will be competitive in 2012 largely depends on whether the franchise's ownership issues get resolved before then.

If they do, the Dodgers are scheduled to have a lot of money coming off the books, and could be in position to upgrade the club significantly, adding pieces around their two marquee players to make the team a postseason contender.

Projected 2012 finish: 4th

Arizona Diamondbacks

Ah, the Diamondbacks.

What can you say? A 2011 surprise to be sure, but can it last?

The Diamondbacks have an intangible "magic" similar to the kind the Giants rode through the postseason and to a world championship in 2010.

But the difference between the 2010 Giants and the 2011 D'Backs is that the Giants had indomitable pitching, which carried them despite a below-average offense.

This season, San Francisco's offense is non-existent, which is a big reason why they won't make the postseason. But Arizona doesn't have a solid foundation with its pitching. It has overachievers.

Despite being 22 games over .500 (83-61), Arizona's pitching staff ranks 10th out of 16 NL teams in team ERA (3.87). Opponents are hitting .258 against the D'Backs, placing Arizona ninth in the league in that category.

The D'Backs can mash, right? Right. Arizona is fourth in the NL in runs scored (647) and tied for third in home runs (158).

The trouble is, Arizona's team batting average is just .250, ranked 10th in the league. The Diamondbacks also have the fourth-most strikeouts in the league, with 1,120.

The bottom line: Kirk Gibson has his boys going good, but the D'Backs aren't built to last.

Projected 2012 finish: 3rd

San Francisco Giants

The Rockies appear to be a club that could give the Giants a run for their money in 2012, if they can improve upon their pitching staff.

A couple of key offseason acquisitions could put Colorado in the race next season, and the D'Backs might hang around as well, but the Giants are the clear favorite in the West come 2012.

Despite fading from playoff contention, San Francisco's pitching staff is ranked second in the NL in team ERA (3.15), second in quality starts (94), second in strikeouts (1,173) and first in opponents' batting average (.229).

With the return of 2010 NL Rookie of the Year Buster Posey, as well as starting second baseman Freddy Sanchez, and a full season for rookie phenom Brandon Belt, San Francisco is in good shape for a return to the postseason after an injury-plagued 2011.

Projected 2012 finish: 1st