Duke-Southern Illinois: Thoughts from My First Look at the Blue Devils

Thursday night on ESPN2, the 2-0 Southern Illinois Salukis played the fifth-ranked 3-0 Duke Blue Devils in New York's world-famous Madison Square Garden.

This article is an in-game analysis-editorial hybrid. I will be commenting on the game throughout the article while focusing on speculation about Duke in regards to the level of success they can achieve this season.

First, note that both programs are tremendous defensive teams, holding their opponents to roughly 60 points per game. The difference between the two teams is the number of points per game (13) that Duke scores more than Southern Illinois.

Hall of Fame coach Mike Krzyzewski elects to start guards Nolan Smith and Jon Scheyer, forwards Gerald Henderson and Kyle Singler, and center Brian Zoubek. Three-year starter Greg Paulus comes off the bench for the Blue Devils in his senior season.

As a Duke fan, my primary concern this season is Zoubek. In the past he has been susceptible to injury and very turnover-prone. Duke will have to rely largely on him to produce quality minutes, namely in the form of good defense and offensive rebounding.

As expected, the level of defensive on-ball pressure is high in the game. Duke is having difficulty developing movement with the framework of its offense. As a result, the Blue Devils have committed three turnovers in as many minutes already in the first half.

On a side note, legendary coach Bob Knight, the mentor of Krzyzewski, is providing the color commentary for ESPN alongside play-by-play commentator Dan Shulman.

Though Duke has struggled early on offense with turnovers and missed shots, I believe they will turn around and eventually find a rhythm on that end of the floor. Defensively, they are showing signs of a scrappy team. I expect them to impose their will throughout the night, which should erase the effects of their lackluster offense.

About five game minutes have gone by, and Duke is really suffocating Southern Illinois on defense. Their help defense is tremendous, and even better, the Blue Devils are rebounding nearly every missed shot with ease.

A note of concern, however, is the turnovers. At the eight-minute mark, Duke has already committed 10 compared to just three by Southern Illinois. I blame this on the lack of precision in their offensive sets. There is no purpose—it seems as though there are no plays being called.

As the first half nears a close, you wonder what Coach K will tell his team in the locker room. Unquestionably, he has to address the turnovers. But beyond that, I hope he urges the team to heighten the intensity on defense.

In the second half, Duke must execute on offense with quality movement and efficient passes in order to win the game. Defensively, it needs to harass the Saluki ball handlers to force them into turnovers.

Midway through the second half, let's speculate about how good Duke can be. Let me first say that I believe that because of their defense, Duke can shut down any offense in the country. The problem with this team lies in its offensive woes.

Within the ACC, they should have enough offensive sparkle to compete for the regular season title. North Carolina is clearly the better team and is the favorite for a reason. I also like Duke's depth. This could help them in the ACC tournament when they must play games on consecutive days.

On a national scale, Duke is in the second tier of the best teams. They would be near the bottom of that tier talent-wise, but if the team is able to play lights-out defense and execute sufficiently on the offensive end, Duke could be the best team in that second-rate pack of teams.

In terms of the NCAA tournament, they are capable of a Final Four run. But this will require considerable improvement from now until then. Realistically, however, I predict them to advance no farther than a regional final game.

Returning to the game, Duke has led Southern Illinois anywhere from 7-10 points for nearly the entire second half.

With a little over 10 minutes left, the Blue Devils are in the one-and-one bonus situation for the remainder of the game. Duke already has a tremendous advantage at the free-throw line tonight. 

With 5:25 remaining, Duke now leads 70-51. The lead has magnified mainly due to the disparity at the free-throw line. Duke has converted 35-40 tonight, while Southern Illinois has yet to shoot half as many as Duke has attempted.

At the 4:14 mark, ESPN showed a graphic that compared Duke's offensive output for each half. In the first, the Blue Devils shot just 32 percent and committed 15 turnovers. In the second, they improved to 50 percent while adding just two turnovers.

If Duke can put together halves like tonight's second for every game this season, they should be incredibly difficult to beat. Those statistics combined with their defensive success are a scary combination for any opponent.

To conclude, Duke won 83-58. The win resulted largely because of Duke's defensive potency and advantage in free throws. In order for a large amount of success to take place this season, the Blue Devils need to continue that trend.

On top of that, more consistency is needed on offense. The weapons are there, but a focus and purpose needs to evolve. Ultimately, this team has a long way to go, but when they play at their potential, Duke merits its No. 5 ranking.