UFC 140: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Frank Mir

At UFC 92, Frank Mir shocked the world by dominating Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and becoming the first man to stop him with strikes.  He has since secured a submission victory over Kongo, a knockout over Mirko Cro Cop and a dominant decision over Roy Nelson.

Three years later, after numerous surgeries and rehabilitation, Nogueira pushed himself back into the heavyweight picture with an impressive first-round knockout of Brendan Schaub, earning himself a rematch with the first fighter to finish him.

Nogueira will be looking to prove to the world that defeating Schaub was a sign of things to come, and that, when healthy, he can beat any heavyweight on the planet.  

Mir will be looking to prove that he was, and still is, a better fighter than Nogueira, and will look to make a statement.

Striking

In their first bout, Mir surprised many people by out-striking the Pride legend, eventually finishing Nogueira in the second round.

Mir has heavy power in his hands.  He rocked Chieck Kongo before submitting him and hurt Nelson a few times.

Nogueira is a very strong technical boxer.  Throughout his career, his striking defense has been the weak link in his standup, but he showed much-improved head movement against Schaub in his last fight.

I was impressed by Nogueira's handwork and head movement against Schaub, and will say his technique is about as good as Mir's.  However, Mir does win on knockout power.  I give Mir a very slight edge.

Advantage: Mir

BJJ

Mir and Nogueira are two of the best submission specialists at heavyweight.  

Mir became heavyweight champion by breaking Tim Sylvia's arm, and Nogueira became the interim heavyweight champion by trapping Sylvia in a guillotine.  

Poor Sylvia.

Across the board though, Nogueira has more submissions over tough competition.  Nogueira also utilizes more sweeps than Mir.  I give Nogueira the edge in this category.

Advantage: Nogueira

Wrestling

Mir has a high school wrestling background, but for most of his MMA career, never worked on his wrestling.

He eventually acknowledged his wrestling was some of the worst at heavyweight and started to improve it.  It looked solid against Nelson, but he's never had strong wrestling skills either.

Nogueira's wrestling is unremarkable.  When he gets to the ground, he's as dangerous as any heavyweight, but like many BJJ practitioners who transitioned into MMA, he lacks the wrestling to get it there.

After his fight with Schaub, Nogueira said he was going to work on his wrestling, but until I see improvement, I give the edge to Mir.

Advantage: Mir

Cardio

It's hard to judge how good Mir's cardio is.

Win or lose, he's only been to decision twice, and only been to the third round three times.  That said, his cardio did look good in his most recent fight against Nelson.

Nogueira, when uninjured, has very solid cardio.  He went three competitive rounds with Randy Couture and looked good in the final seconds.  

He also submitted Sylvia in the third round after getting beat up for the better part of the fight.

Mir has gone the distance a few times in his Pride Career without looking too gassed.

He went to the third round in his last two fights and looked good.  Nogueira hasn't been to the third round in three years.  

Based on recent performances, I give the slight edge to Mir.

Advantage: Mir

Chin

Nogueira's chin no longer has the legendary status it had during Pride.  He was knocked out twice in the UFC.

Still, it's better than Mir's.  Nogueira ate a big uppercut from Schaub, but was able to stay alert and avoid additional damage.  He also absorbed a lot of punishment from Sylvia before finishing him.

All of Mir's five losses have come by knockout.  His striking defense is solid, but he takes a lot of damage from the clinch and on the ground, which could get him and his weak chin into trouble.

Advantage: Nogueira

Winner: Nogueira

This fight is extremely even, making it hard to judge.

Both have good striking and power, top-level BJJ and similar cardio.

But I think Nogueira takes this one.  Heading into his first fight with Mir, he was injured and sick.

This time he will have better luck closing the distance.  Nogueira will be able to just barely outperform Mir en route to victory.

Winner: Nogueira by unanimous decision.