Who Is Looking Good, Billy Ray?

The month of November is special for football fans. It's what separates men from boys. Those teams who show up and don't lose their focus go to a BCS Bowl, and those who lose track of their goals go to a lower-tiered bowl.

Then there are some who are just destined to go bowless due to other factors such as coaching issues, injuries or lack of discipline.

Which teams are destined, and which are destitute?

Florida is a team clicking on all cylinders and has shown no sign of let-up since their loss to Ole Miss. While some teams have stumbled their way through the mid-season with wins, the Gators have rolled. This team has a running game, passing game, and the D has actually matured. Count them in as a BCS Bowl team.

Alabama is a team that by virtue of its schedule, is undefeated. Preseason rankings of many of its opponents were premature- Clemson, Tennesse, Georgia and Auburn all didn't live up to the pre-season hype, and their non-conferernce schedule is weak.

Yes, they are undefeated, and in this day and age, that's special. Should they be ranked in the top two spots? Yes. Are they are a top two team? No. The conference championship will show who is the best team in the SEC. The Tide will still probably go to the Sugar Bowl, and next year, be a serious contender for the national title.

Penn State lost their focus, but is still a very good team. The problem for the Nits is simple- losing a game they shouldn't have this late in the season is unforgivable, especially in a conference fighting for respect. There is also a serious question if their D can handle a fast, spread-like offense. The Nittany Lions will be bowling for roses, but that's as far as they go.

Texas Tech is probably the team most equal to the Florida Gators. They have a prolific offense and their defense is better than what was expected. They get a week off before finishing an extremely challenging schedule and playing at Oklahoma. If they beat the Sooners, send them to Miami- they deserve it.

Oklahoma has a terrific offense, but once again, the defense is nothing special. In the last three games, they have given up four touchdowns each to Nebraska and A&M, and five to Kansas State. Throw in their propensity for losing big games, and the Sooners will not get a BCS Bowl berth over Texas Tech or Texas.

USC blew it by losing a "little "game, and may pay the price for it on Bowl Selection Day. The good news for the Trojans is that they have two things favoring them when it comes time to handing out bowl bids- one, they show up for big games, and two, they have the No. 1 ranked defense in the nation, so a blow-out will likely not happen, thus saving the BCS from embarrassment for picking them.

Most likely, the Trojans will still play in a BCS Bowl if Oregon State wins out, but most football fans would like to see them play an SEC team in the Sugar Bowl. If Oregon State drops one of their next three games, it's Pasadena for the USC Trojans, if they win out. With Stanford, Notre Dame and UCLA left on their schedule, it's not a given. Two of those teams have beaten USC in the last two years.

Utah won't be going to a BCS Bowl. Too many close games and they still haven't played BYU, their big game of the year. I'm counting them out after losing to BYU.

Georgia is in the top ten, and no offense Dawgs fans, but they are not a top ten team. Two blow-out losses, a squeaker past South Carolina and letting Kentucky score 38 points on you says one thing- you lost your focus.

What was the problem? The Dawgs read into the media hype. This team has so much talent, and they didn't fight for the big games-they assumed some teams would just roll over to them. It happens, and is a great learning lesson for next year. The Gator or Chick-Fil-A Bowl is a sweet prize, considering everything.

Florida State is an interesting team. They are leading the ACC, but don't forget, two of their wins are against FCS schools, and one of those wins doesn't count when the final BCS rankings come out. They will get an auto-berth to the Orange Bowl if they win their conference, but I'm not so sure they will. North Carolina looks good, and will beat them in the conference championship.

Ohio State is on the outside looking in. Penn State could win the Big Ten, and that leaves the Buckeyes out of a BCS Bowl. I doubt a second place Big Ten team will get a BCS Bowl berth, so make plans for a December bowl, Buckeyes fans.

Oregon State is a conundrum. They have three losses, but are in the Pac-10 race and if they win out, will get the tie-breaker over USC and go to Pasadena. Their remaining schedule is tough, however, with Oregon, Arizona and Cal left. Somewhere in there is a possible loss, which means USC could end up going to the Rose Bowl to face Penn State.

Boise State is undefeated, but their schedule is soft. Should it matter? Well, yeah, but the Broncos have proven they can play with the big boys. They have to beat Fresno State whose 5-4 record is deceiving, and they also have to beat Nevada, who plays tough. If they win out, it's Fiesta Bowl for the Broncos.

Biggest busts or disappointments of the season? You would be hard-pressed not to argue with the following teams.

South Carolina showed a lot of promise, but they just don't have that winning mentality. It's part of the team's psyche, and Spurrier won't be able to change it.

Notre Dame has coaching issues, and I've said it all along, Weis is not up to the task of being a head coach. Taking over the reins of play-calling with two less-challenging games coming up- Navy and Syracuse - means he is starting to feel the pressure. I'm not so sure that the Irish will get a bowl bid with six wins, and if that scenario happens, then the school will have to take a hard look at their hiring decision. If the Irish lose to Navy or get blown out by USC, there may be a vacancy in December.

Oregon had huge injury issues this year, with six different quarterbacks taking snaps since last year. It's hard to get into rhythm with that many quarterbacks. Yes, all of the Ducks' losses are to ranked teams, but still, there's so much potential there for a better record.

South Florida should have a better record, and it's starting to look like Matt Grothe's freshman year was a fluke- he has not put up the numbers we thought he was capable of. The bright spot is DE George Selvie, who should win some awards this year. Selvie will be playing on Sundays.

Tennessee was a work in progress, but little did we realize how bad things were. SEC fans must be mortified over the Vols' losses to lowly UCLA and a bottom-feeder in the MWC, Wyoming. The good news is that a new coach will be hired, ending the Vols' fans years of torment.

LSU has actually shown more heart than any of the busts. Their three-loss season can be explained easily- Ryan Perrilloux. He was supposed to be the starting quarterback, but couldn't follow the rules, and his departure left the offense in an average state. But they played Bama hard, and played hard to the end, and you have to give credit to great coaching from Miles for keeping them in the game. Next year? Looks good for the Tigers!

Clemson bombed out in the first game, and you have to wonder what their fans are feeling. To go from national contender to pretender in less than six games is hard. Staff changes will make next year more difficult- Lane Kiffin is interviewing with Clemson, and if he is their new coach, Clemson may not have to wait a year to be back in business- he's a great catch. But Tennessee is interviewing him as well.

Auburn is also feeling some major heat, but they can somewhat salvage their season if they beat Alabama. That's a huge if, and not likely. Tuberville has already lost his OC, and frankly, he needs to look in the mirror himself. The offense is dreadful, and the team has lost all focus. Beating Tennessee-Martin 37-20 impresses no one, and in fact, is downright embarrassing. If they beat Georgia and Alabama, it would be a nice end to the season, but that doesn't look like it will happen.

Arizona State just didn't have enough Wheaties for breakfast. The Sun Devils were the early favorites to challenge USC for the Pac-10 title, and up until the Nevada game, looked like they were up to task. But losing six straight was not what Dennis Erickson had in mind for this season, despite having injury issues with quarterback Rudy Carpenter. There is simply way too much talent on this team to have a six-game skid.