New York Islanders: Ten Bold (And Not So Bold) Predictions for 2011-12

We're less than two months away from the start of the NHL's regular season, and if you ask just about any hockey "expert," they'll tell you that the New York Islanders aren't likely to have a successful one. 

This writer begs to differ, and thinks the Isles are finally ready to exit the Eastern Conference basement and aim higher.  

During the second half of last season, the Islanders sported one of the top records in the league and were playing with far more confidence, chemistry and poise. It was a complete transformation, and a welcome one, from the squad that lost a majority of their games played before the All-Star break. 

There's no reason to believe that trend cannot continue, given that the core players are back and the roster is better and more experienced than last year's. 

I'm going to make some predictions for the upcoming season. These are just my opinions though, and feel free to disagree and dissent in the comments section. 

1. John Tavares Will Hit the 80-Point Mark

In 2010-11, John Tavares managed to rack up 67 points, an increase of 13 from his rookie total (54). 

Not that we were surprised, but it's astonishing how Tavares was still able to raise his numbers, despite Mark Streit's absence from the lineup.

If you remember, during his first season Tavares got a lot of his points on the powerplay, and a large reason for that was the chemistry he and Streit developed.

Had Streit been healthy this past year, John Tavares could have been a 75-point player. 

I also couldn't help but notice how much more confidence Tavares had in the second-half of the season, making the moves and plays we'd grown accustomed to seeing him make in Juniors and on the international stage. 

JT found the back of the net 29 times in 2010-11, and I expect him to surpass the mark this season.  

Considering his increased confidence with the puck, the re-insertion of Streit into the lineup and assuming he's gotten stronger and improved his skating in the off-season, John Tavares is in excellent position to take that quantum leap towards stardom.  

Another 13-point increase isn't at all far-fetched. To be honest, I think Tavares could finish with more, but he'll end up with at least 80 points this year.

2. Nino Niederreiter Will Make the Team, Ryan Strome Will Not

Perhaps one of the biggest challenges for the Isles' brass at training camp will be finding a reason to cut Ryan Strome.

It's August and Strome has already impressed just about everyone with a computer and internet access, scoring a highlight-reel shootout goal during a rookie scrimmage, that's been streaming across the web throughout the summer. 

YouTube aside, I had the chance to observe the 2011 fifth-overall pick during rookie camp, and he looked fantastic. Strome's a highly-skilled forward who possesses hands of gold, excellent vision and hockey sense. 

And still, he simply is not yet ready for the NHL. 

Strome has to bulk up and another year in Juniors will do wonders for this young kid. He'll have a chance to tear up the OHL once more, make a likely World Junior Championship appearance with Team Canada and so much more. 

In other words, he'll get to take the vital step that Josh Bailey should have. 

There is no question that the Islanders have learned from their mistakes with Bailey. They're not rushing any of these youngsters and understand that patience is integral to this process. 

I think it's very possible that Ryan Strome gets a nine-game look with the big club before he's returned to the Niagara IceDogs, as was the case with last year's first round choice, Nino Niederreiter. 

Speaking of Niederreiter, he's going to be given every opportunity to earn a roster spot out of training camp. 

He's not going back to play with the Portland Winterhawks (WHL). There's just nothing else he can gain from another season in Juniors. 

"El Nino" (which I refuse to call him, and am determined to come up with a better nickname) raised eyebrows and dropped jaws in 2010-11, scoring 41 goals in just 55 games. I think he can contribute, at the very least, roughly half of that number with the Islanders next year. 

Niederreiter has the size and has put on more muscle. All indications are that he's ready for the NHL, but we'll know soon enough whether or not that's the case. 

Obviously, there's no guarantee that Nino will make the team, but I will say this:

It's his job to lose. 

3. Calvin De Haan Will Survive the Final Cuts

Ah, Calvin de Haan. 

Garth Snow was so eager to draft this kid in 2009 that he engineered a trade that gave New York the 12th pick, after already coming away with the cream of the crop, John Tavares. 

De Haan never had much of a shot at the big club in '09, but was the last cut in training camp, prior to the 2010 season. 

He's had to deal with an assortment of injuries and setbacks during his recent time in Juniors, but nevertheless, his skills were on full display whenever he was in uniform. 

Coincidentally, the Islanders are looking for another offensive-minded defenseman to compliment Mark Streit, and I think Calvin de Haan could be that man. 

But this is a complicated situation, for a number of reasons:

First, if the Isles decide to carry de Haan, someone has to be traded or waived. Mark Eaton and Mike Mottau appear to be the likeliest candidates, though Milan Jurcina could probably be in that mix as well. 

Second, there is the salary cap issue. Cutting a higher-paid player such as Eaton ($2.5 million) or Jurcina ($1.6 million) in favor of de Haan, who would make just $900,000 per season (as he's signed to an entry-level contract), would not solve the team's cap woes. 

Truth be told, the Islanders could try to orchestrate a deal for one of the pricier shutdown defensemen in the league (Mike Komisarek, etc), and, regardless of what they choose to do with de Haan, their next move will quite probably be to make a trade, as they've virtually run out of options with free agency. 

If Snow and Co. wish to incorporate de Haan into the lineup, it won't be easy, but can be done. I think that he's going to have his best training camp to date and has a strong chance of cracking the roster, especially if he shows more offensive-upside than those currently pegged in front of him on the depth chart. 

Besides, even if Garth Snow is working to obtain a top-four defenseman, until that trade comes into fruition we have to assume it won't. And should that be the case, the Isles will desperately need another puck-moving defenseman.

Calvin de Haan is their man, plain and simple (if he's NHL-ready, that is). 

This is definitely one of my wittier predictions and I wouldn't be surprised if he goes down to the AHL for seasoning, but I do think, much like Nino Niederreiter, he's going to have every chance to try and make the team.

Worst-case scenario, he's not yet strong enough for the big leagues and plays with Bridgeport in 2011-12. Any "demotion" would certainly not occur due to a lack of skill, you can be sure of that. 

Evgeni Nabakov Will Emerge as the Starting Goaltender

Whether anyone likes it or not, Evgeni Nabakov is an Islander, at least for the time being. 

How much longer he remains with the team will depend on his performance in training camp, as well as his willingness to commit to Long Island. 

It's easy to suggest that Nabby doesn't have a chance of making it past September, and it doesn't take an expert to cite his horrendous play during the 2011 World Championships. 

The bottom line is, he's still a talented goaltender. Albeit not a very motivated one at the moment, but nonetheless, a capable puck-stopper.

If Evgeni Nabakov can shake off the rust, there's a strong possibility he can succeed, once again, at the NHL level. 

When the Detroit Red Wings give a player their vote of confidence that's generally proof enough for me, and they attempted to sign him last season. But Garth Snow and the Isles snapped him up off the waiver wire.

Something else to consider is that this is very likely the last chance for Nabakov to show he's still able to play at this level. If he has any hope of continuing his NHL career, he better give GMs a reason to give him another look.

There's a lot at stake here for Nabby. He knows it and the Isles know it.   

I think Nabakov is going to turn things around, and by doing so, could be the key to an Islanders playoff berth in 2011-12. 

Michael Grabner Will Score 40 Goals

Michael Grabner was, in a nutshell, the most exciting player on this team last year. 

His explosive speed, skating ability and finishing skills translated into 34 goals and a Calder Trophy nomination, not to mention a brand new contract.

To put things in perspective (and I'm not comparing the two players), he's our Ovechkin.   

As Grabner, as well as the talent surrounding him, continues to improve, the stats and scoring totals will rise. 

Grabner wasn't given nearly as much ice time in the first half of the season as he was in the second. It's not outrageous to think that, with more playing time, he could have visited the red light district even more frequently. 

And in 2011-12, Grabner will probably find himself there around 40 times.  

It's certainly not a ridiculous stretch and it's a definite possibility. 

Josh Bailey Will Be Traded, as Will Blake Comeau

I firmly believe that Josh Bailey will be traded before the season starts, and not just based on pure speculation. 

Has anyone noticed how Bailey's the only player the team has yet to re-sign?

I think it's more than just a coincidence, I'll be perfectly honest.

And, if anything, the Isles' selection of Ryan Strome signaled a change of plans from the Islanders' front office, and assuming my theory is correct, Josh Bailey is not part of those plans.

There's no question that Bailey was rushed, but at the same token, a player has to take it upon himself to improve at some point, and I just do not see him doing that.

Garth Snow knows he made a mistake, and he also knows that he has to reach the cap floor. He knows that he can still sell Bailey on potential and the fact that he's a top-ten draft pick.

Unless he's part of that same deal, Blake Comeau will probably last until the trade deadline, where, depending on his performance up to that point, the Isles will determine the best course of action.

It's difficult to see where Comeau fits on this roster now, let alone in two or three years, when even more young scoring talent will join the big club, which is why he's likely to be dealt.  

The Isles Will Carry Three Goalies for Much of the Season

I've already mentioned that it's my firm belief that Evgeni Nabakov will not only make the team, but will start. 

What I'd like to propose now is that he'll be one of three goaltenders the Isles will carry this season, the reason being Rick DiPietro's constant health woes. 

The Islanders really need youngsters Kevin Poulin and Mikko Koskinen to split time in the minors right now. These two are going to be excellent NHL goalies, but they can't be rushed and need to be developed and broken in properly. An emergency call-up because of a DiPietro injury should not be an option. 

Let the two best goalies out of training camp make the final roster, and the remaining one will be a healthy scratch until they're needed. 

Neither Montoya or Nabakov is going to be sent down, because they'd have to clear waivers and that's not something the Islanders want to risk. Even if you're getting rid of Nabby you'd like to at least try and get something for him, as opposed to losing him and receiving nothing in return. 

Should DiPietro re-injure himself, Nabakov and Montoya would form the team's goalie tandem, allowing Poulin and Koskinen to remain at the AHL level. 

Matt Moulson Will Score 30 Goals for the Third Consecutive Year

The "experts" insisted that Matt Moulson was a one-hit wonder, that certainly he would not score 30 goals for a second consecutive season. 

Needless to say they were wrong, and assuming they're back at it again this summer, they'll be wrong again. 

His chemistry with John Tavares alone will net him at least 15 goals. His underrated shooting ability, combined with his gritty playing style and nose for the net, will help him score the other 15. 

Moulson's a bona-fide goal scorer in this league and he's beginning to resemble Edmonton Oilers forward (and one-time Islander) Ryan Smyth, for his work ethic and determination to get to the front of the net and find pucks in the so-called "dirty areas." 

Hockey fans better get used to expecting the unexpected, not just from Moulson, but from his fellow teammates. 

Frans Nielsen Will Contend for the Selke Trophy

Frans Nielsen has blossomed into one of the top two-way forwards in the game today. 

Unfortunately, his talents have gone virtually unnoticed, but make no mistake, he's on his way to becoming noticed. 

Last season the Isles surrendered 258 goals, the fourth-worst total in the NHL. 

Despite that, Frans Nielsen still managed to sport a plus-13 rating, an incredible achievement if you haven't seen him play, relatively unsurprising if you have. 

He's a strong skater, which is probably his most valuable asset, but he also makes good decisions, with and without the puck. He knows when to forecheck, when to relent, when to poke check and when to steer clear. 

Nielsen's an impressive puckhandler, something that's reflected in his immense shootout success. 

His patented forehand-backhand move, as predictable as it may be, works just about every single time he employs it. 

The last (and only, if I'm not mistaken) Islander player to win the Selke Trophy, awarded to the NHL's best defensive forward, was Michael Peca, and I don't think it'll be very long before Frans Nielsen receives a much-deserved nomination. 

The New York Islanders Will Be in Playoff Contention

The Islanders are a young team, bursting with raw talent and character. 

For the last few seasons we've watched as this team's grown, as stars like John Tavares began the maturation process. 

Now, for the first time since 2006-07, the New York Islanders are ready, once again, to compete for a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. 

It will not be easy and the Isles have loads of work to do if they're going to make the postseason, but I strongly believe this group is talented enough to accomplish the feat. 

They will have to make another move or two, not just to reach the cap floor, but to find themselves another top-four defenseman. If that new player ends up having an impact, that will only make the Islanders a stronger team going forward.

During the second half of last season, the Isles were among the top teams in the Conference and they defeated playoff teams such as the Red Wings, Penguins, Kings, Lightning, Canadiens, Rangers and Sabres. They nearly beat the Canucks, Flyers and Capitals, pushing each of those teams to the brink.

Even more intriguing is the fact that this year's Islanders are better than last year's.

Nino Niederreiter should be on the roster, newcomers Marty Reasoner and Brian Rolston are instant upgrades over Zenon Konopka and Trent Hunter, and, except Nino, all of the young players have gained a full year of experience, and have no doubt benefited tremendously from that season. 

There's simply no reason why that team, with a healthy Mark Streit and quality goaltending, cannot contend for a playoff position.

Comments are welcome.