Can Duke Remain a Top 10 Team?

After a pair of early exits the past two seasons in the NCAA Tournament, the Duke Blue Devils are looking to overcome their recent struggles by surging deep into the tournament. However, as any good team will say, you play one game at a time and take care of things that you can control.

Gone is DeMarcus Nelson from last year’s roster who provided scoring and defense and much-needed leadership for the young team. Though he will be a tough replacement as any senior starter is, Duke feels it has adequate back-ups to step in this year.

Not since the days of Elton Brand and Carlos Boozer has the program enjoyed a formidable inside scoring threat. In recent years, Josh McRoberts may have been the most potent in terms of an interior presence. Unquestionably, this team will need someone to step up this season in order to enjoy a long tournament run.

The following breaks down key players at all the positions—beginning at the center slot.

Roster Breakdown

Brian Zoubek (C)

The junior has come along way since arriving at Duke. After battling injury and turnover issues so far in his career, early indications suggest he is competing for the starting center position. Though his size suggests he should be able to hold his own, his time on the floor has turned out to be quite the opposite.

This year, Zoubek needs to find a comfortable role within the offense. Consistently feeding him the ball in the post is unlikely, but he can contribute in others ways via offensive rebounding and second-chance points. Defensively, he needs to be a presence in the paint and a vocal leader in order to execute Duke’s goal of suffocating the opponent’s offense.

Miles Plumlee (F)

The 6’10” 220-pound freshman forward got his first collegiate start in Duke’s season opener against Presbyterian. However, he amassed just 13 minutes of playing time in the blowout win—though he did re-enter late in the second half. As the game progressed, coach Mike Krzyzewski elected to play Zoubek, Lance Thomas, and Olek Czyz instead.

With a wiry frame, Plumlee clearly has room to add bulk to his body. Any added strength will allow him to establish better position when rebounding the basketball. Also helpful for Plumlee would be the ability to begin developing a back-to-the-basket dimension to his offensive skill set. This will surely serve him well throughout his time at Duke as it is a difficult ability to defend.

David McClure (F)

McClure is a fifth-year senior for the Blue Devils. His experience will serve the team well as it grinds through the brutality that is the ACC regular season. By nature, he is not a scorer but his contributions elsewhere will allow him to stay on the floor for significant minutes this season.

He is a tough, defensive-minded scrapper who can provide hustle and effort everywhere on the floor. Not to mention, he is a skilled passer and can rebound the ball well at times as well. And finally, the team will need to see leadership from him during the season.

Kyle Singler (F)

The super-sophomore is predictably the Blue Devils’ go-to-guy this season. Singler is a versatile athlete with a tremendous feel for the flow of the game. He scored 19 points in both games this year and is averaging three additional rebounds-per-game compared to last year.

However, one cause for concern in Singler’s assist-to-turnover ratio. In parts of two seasons at Duke, he has committed more turnovers-per-game than assists. This year, beyond being the focal point of the offense, the team needs him to improve his efficiency and increase his tenacity on defense.

Lance Thomas (F)

Thomas, a junior, is an X-factor for Duke this season. He has decent size for the forward position and his athleticism further helps him in the interior. He has proven to be a bit of a scoring threat for the team thus far this season off the bench. But the team needs him to increase his productivity inside in terms of rebounding and shot blocking.

Thomas has a great upside and certainly is capable of improving each minute he steps on the floor. One major drawback, however, is that he is a poor free-three shooter. For his career, he is shooting under 60-percent and, even worse, he made just one of eight attempts versus Georgia Southern.

Greg Paulus (G)

Coach Krzyzewski has elected to bring Paulus off the bench this season. He feels Paulus can bring continuity for the offense when Singler and Gerald Henderson are not in the game. Not to mention, Paulus brings needed leadership off the bench that will help when young non-starters are on the floor.

He proved to be explosive in spurts during games last year. When locked in, Paulus can be one of the best shooters in the country. And when his confidence soars, so does Duke.

As always, the team needs poise and leadership from him. Should Paulus have a terrific senior season, the Blue Devils will likely have a tremendous season as well.

Martynas Pocius (G)

Pocius is an interesting character. At times, he can shoot the ball well and give effort defensively. But other times, he is erratic and turnover-prone. Essentially, he is quite inconsistent, but he still gets opportunities to seize more playing time.

In order to contribute more effectively, he needs to collect himself mentally and play under control. The team needs consistency from him and that will come in the form of scoring at times, but mainly in the areas of good passing, rebounding, and defense.

Jon Scheyer (G)

Scheyer is Duke’s poor man’s version of J.J. Redick. He is a prolific outside shooter and is beginning to develop a drive-to-the-basket skill set offensively. Unlike Redick, however, Scheyer is more of a defensive presence for Duke. Also unlike Redick, opponents do not plan their strategy around his ability to score.

This team needs him to develop consistency offensively and continue to provide fearlessness and desire for his teammates to emulate.

Nolan Smith (G)

Smith projects to be the next great player at Duke. He draws comparisons to UCLA point guard Darren Collison. Smith is a scoring threat on offense and can also create points by his stifling defense. But Duke could benefit from an increase in his assist total per game.

Smith is a great on-ball defender and sets the tone on the perimeter. If he can stay healthy, he could prove to be Duke’s most valuable player this year. And in the future, the peak of his development could signal that he is worthy of considerable honors and awards nationally.

Elliot Williams (G)

Williams has been mildly impressive early in his career at Duke. The freshman has given solid effort and provided decent stat lines in the first two games. Against Georgia Southern, the 6’4” Williams pulled down 11 rebounds in just 17 minutes of action.

As you want from any young player, Williams will need to develop a great work ethic throughout his time at Duke. This, in turn, will benefit both him and the team in future seasons, but any positive contributions he can make this year will be a great foundation for him.

Gerald Henderson (G)

The super-athlete returns this year to put an exclamation point on his career at Duke. He and DeMarcus Nelson developed a scary guard combination last season while on the floor at the same time.

In many ways, Henderson is a mirror image of Nelson. Both can penetrate the lane and score, both have extraordinary jumping abilities, and both can defend the ball-handler exceptionally.

Look for Henderson to be even more aggressive in terms of driving to the basket. He is very strong and clearly not afraid of contact in the lane. He should be an invaluable asset for this season’s squad and key component to a deep postseason run.

Team Strengths

Depth, perimeter defense, speed, and lack of multiple scoring threats

Team Weaknesses

Youth, size, and lack of pass-first ball handler and low post scorer

Players Needed to Step Up

Center Brian Zoubek, point guard Nolan Smith, and forward Lance Thomas

Can This Team Remain in the Top 10?

Duke cannot rely exclusively on Kyle Singler to provide scoring on offense. Instead, numerous players are needed to help put points on the scoreboard—namely Greg Paulus, Gerald Henderson, and Nolan Smith as they are all capable to help Singler in this effort.

Traditionally, Duke is one of the best man-to-man defenses in the nation from year to year. Expect that trend to continue this season because Duke owns a plethora of solid on-ball defenders that have the will and desire to shut down opposing ball handlers.

One area of caution for optimistic Blue Devils’ fans is interior defense. In the past, Duke has gotten away with lackluster defenders in the paint because of their superior defense on the perimeter that rarely allowed penetration in the lane. And yes, Duke does have some decent athletes in the frontcourt capable of blocking shots.

However, the concern emerges when the need to defend a formidable back-to-the-basket player like North Carolina’s Tyler Hansbrough. In this situation, not only will a tremendous effort be needed from the man guarding a player like Hansbrough, but the help defense will be crucial in limiting point production from post players this season.

And finally, expect a magical season from Duke if senior Greg Paulus builds upon his success from last year. He showed signs of being a fearless scorer. The degree to which Duke enjoys success this season depends largely on the nature of productivity from Paulus.

To answer the question in the headline, yes. Duke can be a national power and a significant threat to North Carolina for the ACC title. Duke is more team-oriented while the Tar Heels have a handful of superstars.

Duke will hang their hat on defense. If it finds success in this area, they should be able to remain in the top 10 and ultimately make a Final Four run.