Fantasy Baseball: The Matt Holliday Trade Impact

So, taking a slight break from our fantasy football coverage to go over baseball trades that we've seen go down over the past couple of days. While full details on the Holliday trade aren't vetted, we can use the speculation being printed as a base guideline for who is involved and how it will impact lineups. Let's get started. 

Matt Holliday to Oakland for Huston Street, Greg Smith, and a host of others 

Obviously, Holliday is the biggest piece to this. Let's assess that first.  

Holliday was considered a first-round pick last season, after a breakout campaign put him on the map and had him finish second to Jimmy Rollins in the 2007 MVP race.

Holliday was a .361 hitter for the last three seasons at Coors Field. On the road, that average dropped 65 points to .296. Is that a bad average? Of course not, but it certainly removes him, immediately, from the elite status that we have given him in prior rankings. 

Given his stats, we can hardly say that he was an all-out product of the Colorado environment. It certainly helped, though. He has hit 62 home runs since 2006 at home, compared to just 33 on the road.

His RBI totals reflect a similar two-thirds/one-third split from a home to away perspective. His stats drop in every other category by around 20 percent. Whether it is his OBP, OPS, or slugging percent, nothing shows any consistency on the road. 

The concern is that any trade would have spelled disaster, but could it be to a worse ballpark for a hitter than Oakland? The A's play in a park that has close to, if not the most, foul territory in baseball. The sheer size takes away hits because at-bats don't last as long.

Yes, he's going to a friendly division when it comes to pitching, and Texas is a hitter's dream. That said, Safeco is not easy to hit in, and Anaheim is only average in many regards. 

Let's go even further. Who is going to protect him in that Oakland lineup? Eric Chavez? Holliday is going to be much easier to pitch around here than he was with the Rockies. He had 28 steals last season. The A's don't like to run. 

If his numbers hold to form, we simply aren't going to see the type of numbers that we got out of him in Colorado. He's a nice guy, but he's never faced a free-agency year before.

When you add that to the equation, you have to be even more concerned about how he will react to performing for a contract. Everyone takes it differently. Based on these splits, .290/28/85 seems about right here.

We aren't the only ones in thinking this has a negative impact on Holliday's value, but we'll reiterate the point. If Holliday was a top-10 pick last season, this has to drop him to the second or third round of most drafts.

While we haven't done a full-on outfield analysis, there is little doubt that he will rank outside our top-10 outfielders at this point in time, likely just inside the top-25 overall. 

Initially, there are two other pieces to this trade going to Colorado. The rumors are on Huston Street and Greg Smith. Essentially, Street lost his closing job to Ziegler by the end of the season. If he were to end up in Colorado, it's possible that he could regain it. We've all seen how pitchers tend to adjust here.

It's going to be a longer process, but does give the Rockies the impetus they need to jettison Fuentes and bring in a younger pitcher they would have under control. 

Fuentes likely makes the move to a contender as a result. With few needing an all-out closer, he may lose value out of this as well. Street's value climbs in our book because of his ability to close in Colorado, but still doesn't bring him into the top-15 or so overall. He's a second option for most owners, and should be a later-round pick. 

Greg Smith had marginal value last year. He was a matchup play in Oakland, and that will only be more evident in Colorado. Not someone 90 percent of owners should be drafting.

Josh Willingham and Scott Olsen to Washington 

To me, this doesn't materially impact the value of either player. Willingham is still a fourth or fifth option in the outfield and Olsen is still more of a matchup play. Olsen saw some success at home for Florida towards the end of last season, and he became one of our favorite go-to spot starters.

Once we see how he reacts to a ballpark that plays just as big, we'll know how to approach him next season. 

With Olsen, you likely aren't looking at him as any sort of draft pick in most formats, even keeper leagues. He should be a player you keep on the radar and move on as he develops. We like him, but not that much. 

Willingham will be fully healthy this year, and should return to a 20-25 home run type player with 75 RBI. Nothing wrong with it. You can do better, but you can do worse in later rounds to a draft. In Washington, he'll have the same type of protection and, likely, be used in the same way overall. 

Ah, it's good to talk some baseball!