2008 Big Ten Basketball Betting Odds & Predictions: Midseason

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Despite not even being picked by the media to win the Big Ten, it’s the Michigan State Spartans who are the conference’s best hope to reach the Final Four right down the road from East Lansing in Detroit.

The sixth-ranked Spartans (+250 odds to win the Big Ten) lost Drew Neitzel from last year’s 27-9 squad, but three starters return in forward Raymar Morgan, point guard Kalin Lucas, and center Goran Suton, accounting for 47 percent of the team’s offensive production in 2007-08. They will be joined super-freshman Delvin Roe.

As usual, Tom Izzo has his team playing a murderous non-conference schedule, which includes a game with North Carolina in early December. Sparty struggled some in the halfcourt last year, so look for this club to get out and run a lot more, led by the ultra-quick Lucas.

Purdue (+250 odds) was the media’s pick to win the Big Ten title, and it’s easy to see why: All five starters return from last year’s 25-9 team, which went 15-3 in the conference, and Robbie Hummel is the Big Ten Preseason Player of the Year. He led the Big Ten in three-point field percentage in conference games while averaging 11.4 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 2.6 assists in all games.

Hummel becomes the first Purdue standout to earn Preseason Player of the Year accolades since Chad Austin received the honor in 1997. Add in another stellar recruiting class by Coach Matt Painter, and this program is going places.

Wisconsin (+500 odds), the only other Big Ten team ranked in the preseason Top 25, lost three key seniors in forward Brian Butch, guard Michael Flowers, and center Greg Stiemsma, but Coach Bo Ryan’s club will be in the mix to repeat as regular season and Big Ten tournament champs. In seven seasons in Madison, Ryan has finished no lower than fourth place in league play, with three Big Ten titles and two second-place finishes.

Senior Marcus Landry leads this bunch, which will play outstanding defense as usual. Don’t expect another school-record 31 wins like last year, but Ryan’s Badgers are one of only five teams in the country to win 30 or more games in each of the last two seasons.

Realistically, the only other team with a shot at winning the conference title other than Michigan State, Purdue, and Wisconsin is Ohio State (+500 odds), and a lot would have to go right for that to happen.

The top returnees include junior David Lighty and sophomore Evan Turner, but the biggest expectations are for seven-foot freshman center B.J. Mullens, who may be another one-and-done Buckeye. This young group should be able to get the Buckeyes back into the NCAA Tournament after an NIT title last season.

Illinois (+800 odds) is a long way from the dominant program Bruce Weber inherited a few years ago, coming off a school-record 19-loss season, which included just a 5-13 mark in the Big Ten. Led by Kentucky transfer Alex Legion, the Illini should be a little better than that, but it appears NIT-bound.

Minnesota (+1500 odds) lost its top three scorers from last year and doesn’t have one double-digit scorer back, but the return of guards Lawrence Westbrook (8.5 ppg) and Blake Hoffarber (8.4 ppg) should help. Tubby Smith has a very good group of freshmen and will get the Gophers back to the NCAA Tournament, but it might take one more season.

Michigan (+1500) won’t go 5-13 in the Big Ten again. Sophomore Manny Harris is one of the country’s best players—he averaged 16.1 ppg last year. Coach John Beilein welcomes back two other starters, so .500 would be a good step in Year Two.

Penn State (+2200) almost reached .500 last season overall but lost its top player in Geary Claxton, who led the team with 17.5 points and 8.4 rebounds per game last season. Senior Jamelle Cornley is back after netting 12.1 ppg and grabbing 6.1 rpg. He is only the 16th player in school history to score 1,000 points and grab 500 rebounds. Another .500-type season looks likely.

Northwestern (+3000) won only one game in the Big Ten last season, but it does have three returning double-digit scorers in Kevin Coble, Craig Moore, and Michael Thompson. Bill Carmody also has a pretty decent group of freshman big men, so the Wildcats should be more competitive.

Iowa (+3000) could not score last season, averaging a terrible 56.1 ppg, so maybe it’s not a big deal that there is no double-digit scorer back this year. This club plays hard, will pull off a few home upsets, and could finish above Penn State, Northwestern, and Indiana, but not much more.

Indiana (+7500) is easily at rock bottom in the program’s history. Coach Tom Crean brings enthusiasm and hope for the future, but there are only two players back from Kelvin Sampson’s mess. If the Hoosiers don’t finish last in the Big Ten, Crean is a genius.