The Law of Averages: Are the San Francisco Giants Really in a Slump?

The San Francisco Giants saved their season, or at the very least some semblance of dignity, during last night’s gritty 3-1 win over the Philadelphia Phillies. In a series wherein Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner pitched gems and Jonathan Sanchez looked like Barry Zito’s stunt double, the only win the Giants managed was last night behind a dominating performance by Tim Lincecum.

With the win, Lincecum became the Giants' first 10-game winner—remarkable given their pitching staff, unremarkable given their offense. The much-maligned offense has been the subject of countless Bleacher Report articles since the start of the season, with fans calling for the heads of virtually every Giants starter.

But are the Giants really in a slump, or are they just “not that good?" Using the career averages of the Giants' everyday starters (or those with sufficient starts—see Cody Ross and Andres Torres), this article will place the season of each of these position players against their careers to project what each player must do in the remaining games to match their career average. This article makes several assumptions for the sake of convenience—namely, that each starter will play all 47 games and get a total of 188 at-bats. Unrealistic, of course, but necessary for the comparison to work.

Given that these hitters won’t play every day, the actual numbers needed to attain career averages will likely be slightly higher. 

Aubrey Huff

With respect to Buster Posey, Aubrey Huff was the star of last year’s offense. Finishing sixth in the MVP voting, Huff had a career year. Every fan hoped that Huff’s resurgence would continue when he signed his new contract. Instead, his numbers have plummeted.

Career 162-game average slash line (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage): .280/.342/.468

2011 slash line: .244/.298/.367

To match his career level of productivity, he must have a line of .329/.402/.606.

In other words, unless Huff becomes Barry Bonds' incarnate, this season will go down as a massive disappointment. He is clearly not playing up to his caliber. On the bright side, Huff has hit .319 in the past 15 games, which will hopefully be a harbinger of things to come. 

Jeff Keppinger

With Freddy Sanchez out and Emmanuel Burriss and Bill Hall back where they belong, Jeff Keppinger is the new Giants starting second baseman. Acquired by the Astros, Keppinger is in the midst of a career year and has continued to match his productivity since his acquisition by the Giants, unlike some starting right fielders…

Career 162-game average slash line: .284/.337/.393

2011 slash line: .307/.326/.412

To match his career level of productivity, he must have a line of .277/.340/.388.

It appears as though Keppinger will maintain his career year. His high batting average and good on-base percentage compensate for his relative lack of power. Bruce Bochy should seriously consider giving Keppinger some time in the leadoff position, as his ability to get on base is better than Andres Torres' (although not by as much as you might expect). 

Orlando Cabrera

Another current starter who was a backup on another team, Cabrera was acquired from the Cleveland Indians shortly before the trade deadline. Cabrera’s defensive capabilities have waned since his heyday and his offensive production has fallen off precipitously, but his slash line is still substantially more attractive than defensive standout rookie Brandon Crawford.

Career 162-game average slash line: .272/.318/.391

2011 slash line: .243/.273/.319

To match his career level of productivity, he must have a line of .304/.368/.471.

It would be unrealistic to expect Orlando Cabrera to perform at the required level to match his career averages. In keeping with the time-honored Brian Sabean tradition of fielding over-the-hill shortstops, however, Cabrera fits in nicely. He is not, however, a legitimate middle-of-the-order threat.

All things considered, his game is not what it used to be, but he remains the best option at shortstop. 

Pablo Sandoval

The resurgent Panda has been crushing the ball since his sophomore slump. The slimmer, trimmer (but still large) Panda has put up numbers that reflect his brief career. Despite missing significant time with a broken hamate bone, Pablo Sandoval still leads the team in nearly all offensive categories.

Career 162-game average slash line: .307/.355/.489.

2011 slash line: .315/.354/.516

To match his career level of productivity, he must have a line of .303/.356/.474.

To maintain his career average, Sandoval must put up numbers that are very similar to the career average balancing numbers of Orlando Cabrera. The difference, of course, is that it is a realistic expectation for Sandoval to continue.

Should the Giants make the postseason, it will be on the bat of Kung Fu Panda (assuming the pitching stays the course). 

Eli Whiteside

Losing Rookie of the Year Buster Posey for the season seemingly doomed the Giants. It is a testament to the wonderful pitching staff and the shrewd management of Bruce Bochy that the Giants maintain a slim hold on first place. Speculation was rampant that the Giants would focus on a catcher by the trade deadline, but a deal never materialized.

Eli Whiteside, the former backup, is the new everyday starting catcher. Chris Stewart, unexamined in this article, is the new strong-armed backup. Whiteside’s numbers look like this:

Career 162-game average slash line: .227/.288/.364

2011 slash line: 216/.297/.366

To match his career level of productivity, he must have a line of .230/.286/.363.

Whiteside’s offensive numbers, while certainly not at the level of Posey’s, are certainly acceptable for a generally light-hitting offensive position. Whiteside’s ability to handle the pitching staff has been excellent, and he is getting on base with greater regularity than he had at any point in his career.

To call this a “career year” for Whiteside would be a bit of a stretch, but he has certainly not been the abomination most fans make him out to be. 

Carlos Beltran

Do you remember what it felt like? Two weeks ago, Carlos Beltran arrived to play for the Giants. It was a thrilling feeling. For the first time in half a decade, the Giants had a true “marquee” hitter. At least that’s what we all thought.

In reality, we already have a true marquee hitter: Pablo Sandoval. We have another looking to start behind the plate next season (Buster Posey). Beltran was heralded as an incoming Barry Bonds, but the reference to “Barry Beltran” is unfounded when his career numbers are examined:

Career 162-game average slash line: .282/.360/.494

2011 slash line: .284/.378/.495

To match his career level of productivity, he must have a line of .279/.340/.493.

These numbers are manageable, even though Beltran has not produced much in his brief tenure thus far with the Giants. His tweaking of his wrist while striking out against Philadelphia may produce some problems, but if Beltran can remain healthy, he does not seem to be incapable of performing up to these numbers.

Not Bondsian, to be sure—but certainly not bad either. 

Andres Torres

San Francisco fell in love with Andres Torres last year when he helped guide the Giants to the World Series from his position in the leadoff spot. Torres was spectacular and had a career year in nearly every offensive category. He also played center field very well.

This year has been a different story; Torres has seemingly not been “focused” at the plate, and his batting average reflects this. To make matters worse, he seems to carry these woes into his defensive play as well.

Career 162-game average slash line: .247/.319/.413

2011 slash line: .232/.316/.351

To match his career level of productivity, he must have a line of .258/.321/.458.

Look at the on-base percentage! It turns out that Torres has been held to a low average, but has been drawing walks with regularity. Unfortunately, Torres has also been striking out often, which is not particularly useful for a leadoff hitter.

Bochy might consider doing what Tony LaRussa did several years ago during the St. Louis Cardinals’ championship run and have the pitcher hitting eighth, enabling Torres to hit ninth to set up the top of the order. 

Cody Ross

Cody Ross is forever immortalized in San Francisco Giants lore. He did, after all, nearly single-handedly destroy Roy Halladay and was the NLCS MVP against the heavily favored Philadelphia Phillies last season after coming seemingly from thin air after being claimed off waivers. This year, Ross has been mortal, having slightly underperformed through 88 games.

Career 162-game average slash line: .263/.324/.457

2011 slash line: .246/.337/.395

To match his career level of productivity, he must have a line of .278/.313/.511.

Ross has, along with most Giants starters, fallen victim to a “power failure.” Ross has been notoriously streaky this season, and I expect that his batting average will climb significantly during an impending hot streak.

His on-base percentage is quite good, with him reaching base in more than one-third of his plate appearances. Perhaps this explains why Bochy has experimented with Ross in the leadoff spot. 

Nate Schierholtz

There is a reason why he’s called “Nate the Great.” Nate Schierholtz has come through with more clutch hits than any other starter on the Giants, with the possible exception of Pablo Sandoval. He has one of the best outfield arms in the game and has seven assists on the season. He already has a career high in home runs this year.

Career 162-game average slash line: .271/.316/.405

2011 slash line: .274/.320/.419

To match his career level of productivity, he must have a line of .267/.311/.388.

As you can see, Schierholtz's statistical productivity has actually not been dramatically different than it had been in recent years. The difference is largely attributable to the increase in playing time Nate has received. Having played in only 415 games in his career, his career averages (like Panda’s) are largely influenced by performance this year.

Regardless, those numbers are definitely acceptable for a lower-middle/upper-bottom-of-the-order outfielder. 

Conclusion: Slight Slump

After statistical examination of the Giants starters, you may be scratching your head. Sure, Aubrey Huff is playing poorly (WAR of minus-1.8). Yes, Orlando Cabrera is not the hitter he once was—but we already knew that when he was acquired to fill in for the other over-the-hill shortstop (Miguel Tejada).

But Jeff Keppinger, Nate Schierholtz and Pablo Sandoval are having excellent seasons. Andres Torres, Cody Ross, Eli Whiteside and Carlos Beltran are playing up to their potential. Even Aaron Rowand (unexamined on this list) is hitting .248, which is certainly not up to his contract level, but certainly no reason to call for his burning in effigy.

The Giants are not really in a “slump” per se. That means that there are really only two explanations:

1. They don’t have the same team chemistry that they had last year and are not performing as a unit. Last year’s lineup was far more than the sum of its parts, and it proved that in numerous occasions throughout the late part of the season and into October.

2. They just are not that good. They got very lucky last year, and even with the Giants dominating pitching staff, this lineup simply does not have the talent to make it far (or at all) into October.

Personally, I believe it is the latter. I hope it is the former. Talent can’t be fixed—but chemistry can. And the best way to build it is by winning. Let’s hope they carry last night’s momentum into the series against the Pittsburgh Pirates.