UFC 133 Fight Card: Rashad Evans' Blueprint for Success over Tito Ortiz

Tonight at Wells Fargo Center in Philly, top light-heavyweight contender "Suga" Rashad Evans will tangle with the resurgent Tito Ortiz in the main event of UFC 133.

It's an engagement not without risk for Evans, 31, who will likely earn a title shot with a win but would encounter far more uncertain terrain in the event of an upset at the hands of Ortiz, 36. To complicate matters, it will be Evans' first fight in more than a year, after he suffered a knee injury in training last summer.

Ring rust will probably play a role, and Ortiz has more momentum today than he has had in years, but this is Evans' fight to lose. Here's what I imagine will be his blueprint for success.

With the NFL having recently moved from the negotiating room to the film room, much of the American sporting public has football on the brain. In that spirit, I'm reminded of the old stratagem of using the run to set up the pass, or in the case of certain West Coast offense permutations and other throw-happy schemes, using the pass to set up the run. Evans will do the MMA equivalent when he uses his kickboxing to set up the wrestling takedown.

Ring rust or not, Evans has a decided speed advantage on Ortiz. He can use this, as well as his very respectable punching power, to bounce on the outside and mount a stand-up offense that Ortiz will have to respect. Ortiz will have to hope for a takedown of his own, but Evans' D-I college wrestling background will make it difficult for Ortiz to dictate the pace on the ground.

Standing and trading with the quicker, younger, stronger Evans may be a formidable errand for Ortiz to run, but if he cannot connect on the Hail Mary (there I go again) of getting Rashad on his back, a stand-up exchange is probably inevitable.

Inevitable, that is, until Evans moves in for a takedown of his own. At this point, the fight may slow to a crawl as Evans looks to control Ortiz and avoid those nasty ground-and-pound elbows. Ever since his ill-conceived attempt to bang with Lyoto Machida, Evans has returned to his wrestling base, and has wielded it very effectively in each of his last two fights, both unanimous decision wins.

Bottom line: Rashad Evans has a paper advantage in all phases of this matchup. Recognizing this, he will play a diverse, but very conservative, game. He'll tenderize Ortiz in the vertical fight, then go to his bread and butter, where he'll slow the pace and work to avoid a mistake.

Evans wins this fight by unanimous decision, avenges the draw these two reached in their first meeting and goes on to fight for the strap in his next contest.