7 MLB Managers on the Hot Seat in the Second Half

The game of baseball is not always fair. Umpires blow calls, star players get the benefit of the doubt and when heads roll due to poor team performance, the manager is usually the first to go.

Ah, but that's the life of a MLB manager.

Whether it's a coach's on/off-field antics, an underachieving tea, or an outright team failure, any and all of these offenses can be reason enough to axe a manager. And as the season descends into August and September, there are a number of coaches who, deservedly or not, are on the chopping block.

Strangely, however, there are a number of coaches who seem to have a little bit of breathing room despite a poor season.  Brad Mills, Ned Yost and Eric Wedge seem to be in no apparent danger of losing their positions as they have been placed where they are in order to rebuild.

And managers like Bob Melvin, Davey Johnson and Terry Collins should all be brought back next year after filling in recently vacated managing positions.

Still, there's plenty of managers who may not be brought back next year and in even more dire scenarios, may not make it through the year.

Baltimore Orioles: Buck Showalter

2011 Team Win-Loss Record: 44-66

Career Manager Win-Loss Record: 960-922

Remember last year when Buck Showalter and his good-natured scowl were the delight of ESPN's Baseball Tonight? And then suddenly, he was the new skipper for the young, up-and-coming Baltimore Orioles? And he led them on a great run to finish the season 34-23 in their last 57 games?

Well, that was then, and this is now. Unfortunately, there are a lot of things to forget this year for an Orioles team which, at the beginning of the season, was supposed to at least contend for third place in the very tough AL East.

The Orioles brought veterans Vladimir Guerrero, Derrek Lee and Mark Reynolds into the clubhouse in hopes of creating a winning formula of proven veterans and unrealized, young talent. 

But things have not worked out the way the Orioles would have liked. In fact, sitting at the very bottom of the AL East standings with the worst record in the AL, even the most diehard Orioles fans would have to admit at this point that the experiment has been an abysmal failure.

There is no question the job was going to be tough for Showalter, but there is also no question his performance has been completely underwhelming this season.

With the brilliant acquisition of Chris Davis and Tommy Hunter from the Texas Rangers for middle-reliever Koji Uehara, the Orioles may be setting a good foundation to rebuild, but another failed experiment or two and Showalter may be as good as gone.

Probability of Return in 2012: 60 percent

Chicago Cubs: Mike Quade

2011 Team Win-Loss Record: 49-65

Career Manager Win-Loss Record: 73-78

It was a complete surprise for most Cubs' fans last year when manager Lou Piniella up and quit coaching for good. Even more of a surprise was when Cubs GM Jim Hendry extended the contract of then interim-manager Mike Quade through 2012 with a team-option for 2013, passing over highly (fan-)favored, Hall of Famer Ryne Sandberg.

Sure, Sandberg probably didn't have enough coaching credentials to qualify for the Cubs open position, but then again, neither did Quade.

So while Cubs fans sit through yet another fetid baseball season in Wrigley, there seems to be nothing better to do than call for Mike Quade's head.

Seemingly standing in the way of such a firing would be GM Jim Hendry who a couple months ago offered Quade a vote of confidence.

Ironically, however, in recent months, Hendry's name has also been brought up in rumors about who will be gone before 2012.  And if Hendry is out, there won't be anyone else standing in the way of Quade and the back door.

Probability of Return in 2012: 50 percent

Chicago White Sox: Ozzie Guillen

2011 Team Win-Loss Record: 54-58

Career Manager Win-Loss Record: 654-593

Is anybody else sick of the Ozzie Guillen yes he will/no he won't be fired rumors?

Maybe the only ones who aren't at this point are owner Jerry Reinsdorf, GM Kenny Williams, and Ozzie Guillen himself. In fact, the three have seemed to enjoy making a sideshow of their rather tumultuous run as the three major pieces in the Chicago White Sox front office since 2004.

In fact, at times, it appears they are more interested in creating buzz and making headlines than winning any ball games.

Guillen may have extended his tenure by being fortunate enough to win the 2005 World Series, but ever since then his career on the South Side has been more of a jape than serious job.

However, with the White Sox making major signings over the offseason (and not signing a contract extension for Ozzie Guillen beyond 2012) and subsequently severely under-performing this year, Guillen's time in Chicago may finally be up.

Still, the White Sox did exercise their team option to have Guillen return in 2012 before the season started, so apparently they haven't had enough.

But unless the White Sox can pull off a major turnaround over the next year-and-a-half, Guillen will most certainly be looking for work elsewhere. And that may be sooner rather than later.

Probability of Return in 2012: 40 percent

Colorado Rockies: Jim Tracy

2011 Team Win-Loss Record: 53-61

Career Manager Win-Loss Record: 772-754

Jim Tracy is such a nice guy and for a while there in Denver, was such a good story, it's difficult to write that he may be on the coaching hot seat. But it is true.

The fact of the matter is the Rockies have just not played up to their potential for the second straight season.

After an electric second half in 2009, thereby earning Jim Tracy NL Manager of the Year honors, the Rockies have been billed as a "second-half team," but they are disproving that this year and even worse, may be showing that they really are just not as good as advertised.

Despite the Rockies' superb young talent in Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez and recently traded Ubaldo Jimenez, they have continually under-performed, and at some point, the focus is going to land squarely on Jim Tracy.

For now, it appears Tracy's position may not be in imminent danger, as GM Dan O'Dowd has explicitly stated, "Jim certainly will be our manager in 2012 and hopefully beyond. We have a lot of issues to get our arms around and everyone, starting with me, needs to continue trying to get better."

But if the Rockies continue to struggle despite premium talent, there may be nowhere else to look.

Probability of Return in 2012: 70 percent

Detroit Tigers: Jim Leyland

2011 Team Win-Loss Record: 61-52

Career Manager Win-Loss Record: 1,554-1,570

The Tigers are in the thick of a pennant race here in August, Leyland is without a contract beyond 2011, and there still has been no talk of renewing it.

Like Guillen, Leyland has probably extended his tenure in Detroit longer than his up-and-down road in Detroit would have warranted, but in my opinion, Leyland has coached well enough to get a new contract this season.

In all likelihood, Leyland will live to see the end of this season, and if the Tigers can make any headway in the playoffs, he may force the Tigers' hand to resign him beyond the 2011 season. But it is notable that Tigers owner Mike Ilitch has yet to extend an offer to Leyland.

As Ken Rosenthal has suggested, if Ilitch was certain that he wanted Leyland to return, he would have granted him an extension already.

The larger issue, of course, is whether or not Jim Leyland is the right manager for a team that is getting younger. With upcoming stars like Alex Avila, Brennan Boesch and Austin Jackson leading the charge for tomorrow's Tigers, Leyland's old-school approach may not jive as well as it had with aging players like Carlos Guillen, Magglio Ordonez and Jose Valverde.

My feeling is much of Leyland's future will depend on the fate of this season. If the Tigers can win the AL Central and make some noise in the playoffs, he may buy himself more time. If not, the Tigers may be heading in an entirely new direction.

Probability of Return in 2012: 30 percent

Florida Marlins: Jack McKeon

2011 Team Win-Loss Record: 55-59

Career Manager Win-Loss Record: 1,112-1,042

Jack McKeon should be smoking a cigar in celebration of his own retirement by the end of the 2011 season, so it's difficult to qualify what McKeon is currently sitting on as "the hot seat."

Nonetheless, the probability of McKeon returning to manage the Florida Marlins next season is next to zero.

McKeon's role as interim manager has been clear and barring some miraculous turn of events that leads to the resigning of McKeon, his tenure most assuredly ends with the Marlins' season.

Probability of Return in 2012: five percent

San Diego Padres: Bud Black

2011 Team Win-Loss Record: 50-64

Manager Career Win-Loss Record: 366-396

It is a strange world indeed when the reigning NL Manager of the Year is being denounced as one of the next possible MLB managers on the chopping block. But in the case of the San Diego Padres' Bud Black, it is strange but true.

Perhaps more telling than the NL Manager of the Year award Black received last year, the Padres complete meltdown at the end of the 2010 season and subsequent tailspin in 2011 can account for Black's name on this list.

In fact, since Aug. 26th, 2010, when they had a 6.5-game lead in the NL West, the Padres have gone a horrible 64-89. They went on to lose the division to the future 2010 World Series Champs, the San Francisco Giants and have been spiraling to the bottom of the major league heap ever since.

While Black's relative success from last year and in '07 may buy him another year in the San Diego dugout, he is clearly flirting with the hot seat. Look for his name to be more aggressively rumored if the Padres continue to struggle both this and next year—as they probably will.

Probability of Return in 2012: 60 percent