Packers Community Roundtable: Vikings Re-Match

In preparation for Sunday’s rematch with the Minnesota Vikings, I have organized our second Packers community roundtable. Below is the question and answers from the participants, in the order they were received.

The Packers have struggled to stop the run, and face one of the league's most elite backs this weekend. How important is it to stop the run, do you think the Packers will do it, and how?

David Arreola: If you can run the football you will win the game nine out of ten times. On the other hand, if you cannot stop the run you will lose nine out of ten times.

The Packers are one of the worst run stopping defenses in the NFL. However, in the two games that the Packers have played against Adrian Peterson they have done an excellent job of keeping him in check. I believe the Packers defense will stop Adrian Peterson by taking an early lead and forcing the Vikings into passing situations.

The Packers defensive linemen will have to be cautious not to overcommit, as Adrian Peterson has the speed to beat them outside. If the Vikings get up on the Pack early, we could see a heavy dose of Adrian Peterson.

 Aren Dow: Adrian Peterson is an elite running back, without a doubt. The Packers have had the luxury of seeing him firsthand several times, but so far it hasn't helped much. They've allowed two 100+ yard games (minus the one where he was injured), but only one touchdown in his short career. That endzone stat will be very key in the game.

Stopping Peterson will be the number one goal Sunday. When you stop AP, you can stop the Vikings. Will the Packers do that? I don't think so. They haven't done last season nor this one. With Adrian Peterson, I hope to contain him rather than stopping him. The Packers must keep eight in the box and make the passing game a distant second priority. With our secondary, Frerotte is not even on my radar to deal any damage.

Zach Kruse: Run-defense is the most important aspect of any defense. As Packers coach Mike McCarthy has routinely said: "run-defense is the thermometer to a football game," and I firmly agree with him. Effectively stopping the run makes an offense one dimensional, and with the talent in the Packers secondary, that definitely favors Green Bay.

Just look at the stats to see how important run-defense is for the Packers: in Green Bay's four wins, they've given up an average of 103 rushing yards per game; in the four losses, opponents have averaged a staggering 188 yards on the ground. If that isn't a clear indication of what run-defense means to the Packers, I don't know what is.

How will they do it this weekend in Minnesota? In all reality, chances are they won't. The Vikings are too talented rushing the football for the Packers to even consider "stopping" them. Adrian Peterson is probably the NFL's top running back, and their backup Chester Taylor could probably start on half the teams in this league. Combine that with one of the NFL's best offensive lines, and you get a big test for the Packers.

If anything has been consistent for Green Bay this season, it's been how the run-defense has played against good rushing teams. Bad thing is, that consistency shows we've been run over in each and every one of those games. Maybe we can hang our hat on the fact that we gave up 187 yards rushing to Minnesota in week one and still won the game. But If I was a betting man, however, I bet we don't win the game this weekend if we give up anywhere near that total again.

For more on the Packers struggles stopping the run, click here.

Tim Seeman: Winning football teams often have two things in common: They can run the football effectively to stay ahead of the chains, and they can stop their opponents from running to put them in long second and third down situations, so for every football team, stopping the run is critical, from the Packers all the way down to the high school level.

This weekend against Adrian Peterson will be a tough matchup, but Peterson hasn't played up to his lofty standards in his three career games against Green Bay.  He's averaging less than 90 yards per game and has only one touchdown in those three games, which means that the advantage this week goes to Green Bay.

The key for the Packers on the fast surface of the Metrodome this weekend is to keep the defensive tackles fresh.  Rotating Ryan Pickett, Johnny Jolly, Justin Harrell (who made some good plays last week), and Colin Cole should keep the most of the holes plugged. 

If and when Peterson breaks through the front line, it becomes imperative for the linebackers (Nick Barnett, Brady Poppinga, AJ Hawk, Brandon Chillar) to bring him down.  Even strong, physical defensive backs like Charles Woodson, Al Harris, and Atari Bigby will find themselves on the losing end of a collision with Peterson.

MJ Kasprzak: The Packers are the fifth-worst rushing defense in the NFL and the Vikings are the sixth best rushing offense. However, one has to look beyond the numbers to get them in context.

One quarter of the Vikings season to date was played with Tarvaris Jackson under center, and Gus Frerotte does not have Jackson’s rushing ability. On the other hand, he is a much better quarterback, and that means teams have been unable to commit as heavily to stopping the run, and the Vikings have not had to run as often.

In those first two games, Peterson accumulated 263 yards on the ground, but did so against two of the worst rushing defenses in the league. Unfortunately, the Packers were one of them, and while they only yielded 103 of them, it was before they lost Cullen Jenkins for the season. On the other hand, they finally have Justin Harrell in the line-up—hardly an even trade, but at least it helps—and AJ Hawk is healthy.

So all of this is about a wash, meaning the only way the Packers stop the Vikings rushing attack is to get a big lead on them so they cannot run in the fourth quarter, when the Packers usually wear down. In other words, we will not stop the run, but we may force them to stop running.

This is entirely possible, as the Packers have the ninth-best passing attack and the Vikings have the 23^rd-ranked pass defense. Moreover, while Frerotte has upgraded Minnesota’s passing game, he does have as many interceptions as touchdowns. That could spell disaster for the Vikings: the Packers are tied for the league lead in interceptions, and have returned five of them for touchdowns.