Your Houston Rockets Season Forecast

Alright folks.  Lets take a moment to think about this. Ron Artest has come to town.

Should we instantly proclaim the Rockets the next NBA champion?

I don't think so.

No doubt, the addition of Artest makes this team a legitimate contender.  Problem is, there are plenty of other contenders out West.  I don't think Houston has a better chance of winning the title than L.A., New Orleans, or Utah.  If that's true, they couldn't possibly have greater than a 25% chance of winning it all.  And I haven't even included the Eastern Conference's chances.

I'm sure some of what I'm hearing is coming from the heart of Rockets fans, but there should still be a realistic expectation level.  A different Rockets team won 55 games last regular season, including 22 straight.  Yao only played 55 of those games, and there was no Ron Artest or Brent Barry the whole season.

In a narrow-minded view, the Rockets have increased the talent and depth of their roster, so one would expect them to win more than 55 games.

But the NBA and most everything in life are more complicated than that.  Won't the Lakers improve with Andrew Bynum healthy?  When Greg Oden returns, shouldn't we expect the Blazers to be an even more dangerous team?  It's possible Houston will be better than last year but win fewer games.  The strength of their opponents will help decide that.

And besides, when the Lakers had Karl Malone, Gary Payton, Kobe Bryant, and Shaquille O'Neal on the same team, they didn't win a championship.  Malone was hurt a lot, Gary Payton wasn't in all-star form, and Shaq was mad at Kobe for hogging the ball.

So injuries, age, and team chemistry will play their part in whatever the Rockets accomplish this year.  McGrady is dealing with injuries, Barry isn't getting any younger, and it will take time for this team to develop chemistry.

Having said that, Houston seems to have many of the pieces of a championship team.  They have a dynamic scorer (McGrady), a great perimeter defender (Artest), a very talented center (Yao), a three point specialist (Barry), and do-it-all power forwards (Scola and Battier).

So what's missing? 

The play-making point guard.

The success of this team may depend on the consistency of Rafer Alston.  Ron Artest's sanity deserves honorable mention, but they need Alston to play well if they are going to beat teams with superstars like Chris Paul and Deron Williams.

Aaron Brooks looks promising, but in all likelihood it is Alston who will be called upon to run the offense in key moments at the end of games.

Sorry fans, I just don't see this team winning a championship with Alston at the point.

My prediction:  Houston wins 52 games, and once again finds itself with home court advantage in the first round, this time as a fourth seed.  But for once, they won't play Utah in the first round, and they will give T-Mac his long overdue first playoff series win. Their championship dreams will end against whoever grabs the top seed out West, whether it be the Lakers, the Hornets, or the Jazz.

At least that's what you should expect.