Early 2011 NFL Lines Built on Public Perception

Public perception is often an overused term in the world of sports betting, but it definitely plays a big role in developing NFL lines. 

My suggestion to bettors throughout the season is to simply find out when a team's perception is at its highest and lowest point and wager accordingly.

Few games over the course of the 2011 season will demonstrate this concept more than the Thursday night opener in Green Bay. 

Let's take a look!

New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers

The NFL season kicks off in Titletown, and the lines maker has placed a premium on the Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers, currently listed as a 4.5-point home favorite.

Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers led the team to a 9-7 ATS mark during the regular season but ultimately destroyed the Vegas line in covering four straight in the playoffs by an average of 10 points.

New Orleans will be remembered in the public’s mind as an underachiever due to losing as a 9.5-point road favorite in Seattle during Wild Card weekend.  That would be a mistake in examining last year’s numbers that found the Saints ranked in the top 10 in both total offense and defense.

Defending champions are predominately overvalued the following season in terms of beating the spread.  You don’t have to go back very far in terms of proof, as the New Orleans Saints were a cash-burning 7-9 ATS in 2010 after a storybook win over the Indianapolis Colts in Super Bowl XLIV.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens

Pittsburgh is the defending AFC champions, and the public will quickly note that the road team won and covered both regular-season meetings last year as an underdog.

It's always dangerous for a book to send out the Steelers getting points, especially with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger's 15-8 ATS mark in that particular situation.  He also appeared in just two of the three meetings last year due to an early-season suspension in violating the league's personal conduct policy.

The obvious perception is Baltimore is a 2.5-point home favorite, but the reality is the team will likely be considered a slight underdog in betting terms.  Lines in the NFL are often built with an automatic three-point edge favoring the host.

Atlanta Falcons at Chicago Bears

In the eye’s of the public, Chicago quarterback Jay Cutler sitting on the sidelines after suffering a knee injury in the NFC Championship Game is hard to forget.  The lines maker has undoubtedly spoken by making the Bears 1.5-point home underdogs to start the season.

Chicago was given points at Soldier Field three times last year, posting a 2-1 SU record in those games, with the only defeat coming to the high-powered New England Patriots.  That loss was excusable due to the game being sandwiched between two divisional road games.

Atlanta is widely viewed as one of the most talented up-and-coming teams in the league and finished last year with the NFC’s best regular-season record.  The lines maker was on top of this from the get go in 2010, grading out the Falcons as a slight road favorite over the Steelers to open the season.  Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s suspension made the market, and the defense stepped up.

The result of that game was a 15-9 Steelers win, and the books may be setting the bettors up for a serious case of deja vu.