Philadelphia Phillies Trade Rumors: Why Vance Worley Shouldn't Be Untouchable

Much of the back-and-forth on Philadelphia's sports talk radio this week has centered around the man they call "Vanimal:" Phillies starter Vance Worley.

A growing contingent believes Worley is too valuable to deal, and should remain off the trade market. Those beliefs were fueled further by Worley's three-hit, complete game win against San Francisco on Tuesday and the news that Joe Blanton likely wouldn't pitch again this season.

But there are a number of reasons that Worley's potential value in the right deal would greatly outweigh his value on the Phillies roster this season.

The first is that Worley has been playing over his head so far this year. The righthander's ERA stands at a sparkling 2.02. But his xFIP, a measurement of expected ERA that disregards fielders, is a much more mediocre 3.99.

Likewise, his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is an abnormally low .233, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio stands at a measly 1.96.

Taken together, these statistics suggest that Worley is in line for a pretty serious regression, to the fourth or fifth starter-type numbers he was projected to post. Those obsessed with Worley's "potential" should remember that he didn't even rank among the team's top ten prospects at the beginning of the season.

But, for argument's sake, let's assume Worley's got some magic left in that mohawk. Even at his current performance level, how much effect would he have on the Phillies' season from here on out?

Potentially very little. At present, Worley is the fourth-best starter on the team, behind Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels. That's indisputable, despite Lee's sometimes inconsistent performance this season.

If Roy Oswalt, who looked good in a Wednesday rehab start, returns healthy, Worley becomes the fifth starter.

The Phillies are already on pace to win 103 games. As of July 27, they held a six game lead in the division, and a 9.5-game lead over the second-place wild card team (behind the Braves). The fourth and fifth starters are not going to dictate the Phillies' postseason hopes.

Once in the postseason, the fifth starter won't start at all. The fourth starter would start at most four games, one in each series.

That means that Vance Worley isn't a make-or-break player for the Phillies to make the postseason, and would have little to no bearing on the team's chances in the playoffs.

That doesn't mean that Worley absolutely must be dealt. It would certainly depend on what type of improvement the Phillies could make.

Right now, the Phillies rank 13th in the majors in runs scored, and seventh in the National League. That's slightly above average, but there's certainly room for improvement.

A lot of debate is centering around whether Worley should be offered in a package for Hunter Pence. Let's see what type of impact Hunter Pence would have on the Phillies lineup.

The three candidates to play right field for the Phillies on any given night are Domonic Brown, John Mayberry Jr, and Ben Francisco. Those three luminaries have combined to post a .731 OPS over 536 at-bats.

Hunter Pence, meanwhile, has posted a .823 OPS over 393 at-bats, a drastic difference. He is also likely the best defensive outfielder of the four, and would provide balance from the right side of the plate in the Phillies lineup.

Pence would also immediately fill a big hole at the fifth spot in the batting order. That slot is currently occupied mostly by Shane Victorino or Raul Ibanez, neither a prototypical middle-of-the-order hitter.

On top of that, Pence would play every day. That's something we can't say for Vance Worley. Pence's daily regular and postseason at bats would ultimately have a much greater bearing on the Phillies World Series chances than Worley's probable zero postseason starts.

Many have rightfully pointed out that Worley would be under team control, and cheap, for several years to come.

That may be true, but the Phillies are designed to win now. Three years from now, with a nucleus in its mid-30s, there's no telling what shape the Phillies will be in.

One year ago, Phillies fans did the very same song-and-dance with J.A. Happ. GM Ruben Amaro Jr pulled the trigger on a deal anyway, netting Roy Oswalt.

Oswalt was an absolute difference-maker down the stretch for the Phillies in 2010. Nowadays, nobody seems to be clamoring for Happ, currently 4-12 with a 6.12 ERA for Houston.

Memories are short, but history is instructive. Worley won't be the difference between winning a World Series or not in 2011, but the player he could attract in a trade might be.