Fantasy Football 2011: Breaking Down the Top 12 Fantasy RBs for 2011
From Adrian Peterson to LaDainian Tomlinson to Marshall Faulk, since the dawn of fantasy football, one position has stood above all others, making the difference more times than not between mediocrity and fantasy football glory...the running back.
As points-per-reception leagues and those that require three wide receivers become more the norm than the exception, many fantasy football pundits have all but abandoned the strategy of selecting two running backs to begin your draft, but there remain Backaholics (myself included) that maintain that it remains a more than viable draft strategy.
With that in mind, here are the top 12 running backs for PPR leagues in 2011, the bellcows that can carry a squad. Get one, and you have a nice compliment to that shiny quarterback or wide receiver you took early. Nab two, platoon the right quarterbacks, get lucky a bit at wide receiver and roll into the fantasy football playoffs.
12. Peyton Hillis: Cleveland Browns
1 of 12Cleveland Browns running back Peyton Hillis exploded into fantasy football prominence in 2010, coming from nowhere to amass over 1,600 total yards and score 13 total touchdowns. The fourth year pro went undrafted in many leagues, but rewarded fantasy football owners who were smart or lucky enough to acquire him with a runner-up finish at his position last year.
It's true that Hillis wore down some as the season progressed (his last touchdown came in Week 12 and he topped 100 rushing yards only one time after that), and there were several backs considered for this spot, including Rashard Mendenhall of the Pittsburgh Steelers and Ahmad Bradshaw of the New York Giants, but given the additional value Peyton Hillis possesses in PPR leagues (he had 61 receptions in 2010), he's certainly worth consideration as a low-end RB1 or top-notch RB2 for the upcoming season.
11. Steven Jackson: St. Louis Rams
2 of 12It was another strong statistical season for St. Louis Rams running back Steven Jackson, who topped 320 carries and 1,200 rushing yards for the second consecutive year while finishing among the top 15 at his position for the fifth time in a row. The 28-year-old Jackson also chipped in 46 catches for nearly 400 yards, eclipsing the 40 reception mark for the fourth time in five seasons.
Jackson is part of a rare breed in today's NFL, the workhorse running back who is all but assured of a 300-plus carry season. The mileage that those carries have put on Jackson's proverbial tires (1,750-plus touches over the last five years) raise some durability concerns, and Jackson doesn't possess the fantasy upside of some of the other backs on this list, but he remains a more than serviceable RB1, especially for teams drafting toward the end of round one that select a wideout or quarterback with their first pick.
10. Matt Forte: Chicago Bears
3 of 12Matt Forte was a large part of the Chicago Bears run to the NFC Championship Game in 2010, as the former Tulane Green Wave standout topped 1,500 total yards and finished as a top 10 fantasy running back for the second time in his three year career while rushing for a robust 4.5 yards per carry.
There's a lot to like about Matt Forte in 2011. The 25-year-old is entering the prime of his career and has never had fewer than 1,400 combined yards, 50 receptions or finished lower than 12th among running backs in his career, and while he may not be the sexiest running back on fantasy draft boards, he could represent a solid value as an RB1 that can be had towards the end of round one or beginning of round two.
9. Darren McFadden: Oakland Raiders
4 of 12Darren McFadden of the Oakland Raiders had been a disappointment as a pro entering his third year in the NFL, having rushed for less than 900 yards in his first two seasons combined. McFadden erupted in year three, however, as the running back powered his way to over 1,100 rushing yards, 500 receiving yards, an outstanding 5.2 yards per carry and a top 10 fantasy finish.
McFadden did miss three games due to injury (he has yet to play a 16 game season in his career), and it appears that running back Michael Bush will be remain in the silver and black breathing down McFadden's neck, so there's a bit of risk involved in making him your first round pick, but the very real possibility of a top five fantasy season in 2011 makes it a risk worth taking.
8. Maurice Jones-Drew: Jacksonville Jaguars
5 of 12A knee injury limited Jacksonville Jaguars running back to 14 games in 2010, but the sixth-year pro was still able to log a decent statistical campaign, rushing for over 1,300 yards, scoring seven total touchdowns and finishing among the top 15 fantasy players at his position for the fifth consecutive season.
Jones-Drew has declared himself ready to go for the upcoming year, but the reportedly bone-on-bone condition of his knee at the end of last year and the presence of a more-than-capable backup in running back Rashad Jennings (a must-have handcuff for MJD owners) clouds his fantasy future. That said, Maurice Jones-Drew posted top five seasons in 2008 and 2009, and if he can stay healthy, the dual threat back may well make it three years out of four.
7. Frank Gore: San Francisco 49ers
6 of 12Running back Frank Gore of the San Francisco 49ers was well on his way to once again finishing among the top 10 fantasy running backs in 2010, as the 28-year-old was fifth at his position in fantasy points per game before seeing his season cut short by a hip fracture (insert old running back joke here). Gore still managed to tally over 1,300 total yards last year, finishing as the 16th best running back despite playing in only 11 games.
Gore hasn't played 16 games since 2006, so the hip injury and his increasing age are concerns heading into this season. However, Gore has averaged over 1,500 total yards, eight-plus touchdowns, and 50-plus receptions per season over the past five years, and there's little reason to believe that given the lack of another viable backfield option and new head coach Jim Harbaugh's preference for a ball-control attack that a healthy Gore can't hit those numbers once again.
6. Ray Rice: Baltimore Ravens
7 of 12Ray Rice of the Baltimore Ravens had his second consecutive strong statistical showing in 2010, rushing for 1,220 yards and five touchdowns while catching 63 passes for 556 yards and another score. The fourth year former Rutgers star topped 300 carries for the first time in his career and has now logged two straight top 10 fantasy seasons.
Ranking Ray Rice sixth is less an indictment of him than a testament to the players ranked above him, as he represents a fine RB1 option for those unfortunate souls stuck drafting mid-round. Rice, at only 24, may not yet have reached his peak even though he's averaged over 1,900 total yards and 70-plus catches over the past two years. And although he's yet to score double digit touchdowns, it's very possible 2011 could be the year he does, especially should running back Willis McGahee depart, and playing on the run-first Ravens a top five season is well within Ray Rice's reach.
5. LeSean McCoy: Philadelphia Eagles
8 of 122010 was a coming out party for Philadelphia Eagles running back LeSean McCoy, as he notched his first 1,000 yard rushing season, scored nine times and led all NFL running backs with 78 receptions as quarterback Michael Vick's favorite checkdown option. McCoy's 1,600-plus total yards, combined with his healthy touchdown number and sick reception total, were enough to propel him into the top three among running backs last year.
It will be hard for LeSean McCoy to match last year's reception numbers, but with the elusive Vick at quarterback and dangerous wide receivers in DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin, the Eagles possess enough offensive weaponry to keep defenses from keying on the run, and as evidenced by his averaging 5.2 yards per carry a year ago. McCoy has shown himself more than willing to take advantage of that, paving the way for another top five finish at his position in 2011.
4. Jamaal Charles: Kansas City Chiefs
9 of 12The Kansas City Chiefs were one of the National Football League's surprise teams in 2010, and a large part of the credit for their 10-6 record and AFC West title rests with running back Jamaal Charles, who emerged as a young star in the league by rushing for 1,467 yards, scoring five touchdowns and averaging a ridiculous 6.4 yards per carry.
Jamaal Charles actually had fewer carries than veteran running back Thomas Jones in 2010, but Jones wore down badly towards the end of the season and you have to think that Charles will lead the team in carries by a fair margin in 2011. One of the NFL's most explosive young running backs, Charles also had 45 catches a year ago, and with the added value it gives him in PPR leagues, the 24-year-old should be able to duplicate (and possibly improve on) his fourth place finish from last season.
3. Adrian Peterson: Minnesota Vikings
10 of 12The 2010 season was something of a train wreck for the Minnesota Vikings, but one of the few bright spots was the play of star running back Adrian Peterson. The fifth year pro carried the ball 283 times for 1,298 yards and 12 touchdowns (his fourth consecutive double-digit TD season) while averaging 4.6 yards per carry and finishing among the top five fantasy running backs for the second year in a row.
The question marks at quarterback in Minnesota are a bit of a hit to Peterson's PPR value, as is the fact that he doesn't catch a lot of passes (he's topped 40 receptions in a season only once), but the 6'1" pound stud has a nose for the end zone, and it wouldn't be an upset to see Adrian Peterson perched atop the running back rankings at season's end.
2. Arian Foster: Houston Texans
11 of 12Arian Foster of the Houston Texans ruled the running back roost in 2010, as the former undrafted free agent rolled to over 1,600 rushing yards and an eye-popping 16 rushing touchdowns while adding 604 more yards and another two scores on 66 catches. Foster outscored the second-place running back, Peyton Hillis of the Cleveland Browns, by over 90 fantasy points a year ago.
Foster was undoubtedly the steal of fantasy football drafts a season ago, leading many teams to championships with a dominant second season in the NFL. The return to health of tight end Owen Daniels may cost Foster some red-zone touches and a score or two, making it possible that we saw Foster's ceiling in 2010, but even should he regress a bit statistically this year, Arian Foster is still a safe bet to be a top five fantasy running back and will likely be the first player selected in many drafts this summer.
1. Chris Johnson: Tennessee Titans
12 of 12It's hard to call Chris Johnson's 2010 season a failure, as the Tennessee Titans running back tallied over 1,600 total yards and scored a dozen touchdowns, but given his career-low 4.3 yards per carry a year ago after topping 2,000 rushing yards and finishing as fantasy football's top running back in 2009, that's how many owners (who probably used the draft's first pick to acquire Johnson) felt, even though the speedster did manage a sixth place fantasy finish.
Many of Johnson's struggles (if you can call them that) in 2010 can be attributed to poor quarterback play last year in Nashville, and there are still a number of questions surrounding the position for the Titans, but the fact remains that Chris Johnson is an incredible talent who's equally dangerous in both the running and passing games and finds the end zone with regularity, and should the Titans see some improved play under center this season, Johnson should rebound and regain his crown as fantasy football's top running back.
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