Baltimore Orioles: Bold Predictions for the Second Half of the Season

95 down, 67 to go.

It seems crazy that the season is more than halfway done. The Orioles are once again in last place, but there are still some things to look forward to. The trade deadline, milestones and September call-ups will give the Orioles some sort of excitement as the season winds down.

There are also questions that need to be answered:

What ever happened to Justin Duchscherer?

When will Brian Roberts return?

Where did Brian Matusz's velocity go?

These are the answers to those questions and more as I take a look at the rest of the year.

The Orioles Will Have Their 14th Straight Losing Season

Already 17 games under .500, the Orioles are going to lose more than they win once again. The crazy thing is that the Pittsburgh Pirates look like they won't, so the longest streak of losing seasons will belong to the O's.

The Orioles do have the excuse that they are in the AL East, which holds some weight, but this is getting sad. The offseason acquisitions have been major busts and the young players are regressing. The development side of the Orioles is failing and the team suffers as a result.

Derrek Lee and Vladimir Guerrero Are Orioles on August 1

I mentioned that the free agents were failing.

Derrek Lee and Vladimir Guerrero have done nothing to make themselves attractive to the rest of the league.

Derrek Lee is in a tough place because there aren't many teams in need of a first baseman. The only team that is desperate is the Arizona Diamondbacks, but Derrek Lee is not an upgrade at this point. His contract also makes him tough to move.

Vladimir Guerrero is hitting better than Lee, but can't play in the field and is currently recovering from a broken hand. I think that the Orioles may have found a taker before the injury, but it's out of the question now.

It's going to be near impossible for the Orioles to move Lee and Guerrero...

Derrek Lee and Vladimir Guerrero Are Not Orioles on September 1

... at the July 31 deadline. I believe that they will both get dealt after clearing waivers in August.

The veterans are still valuable player that could make a contribution to a club's playoff roster. If they only have to pay for one month, it is a better deal for the receiving team.

I think Derrek Lee is a perfect fit to return to the Atlanta Braves as a right handed bat to go alongside Freddie Freeman. Freeman is hitting just .231 against lefties compared to Derrek Lee's .263. Lee plays defense very well and could be a good option as a pinch hitter as well.

Vlad Guerrero would be good for the Yankees, but the Orioles don't deal with the Yankees. I think Guerrero could surprise people by going to the National League. Guerrero could be a very solid pinch hitter for a team in need of bench help.

Mark Reynolds Avoids 200 Strikeouts for the First Time

Reynolds has vastly improved his patience at the plate. According to projections of his stats on ESPN.com, Reynolds will end with 92 walks and 182 strikeouts, both career bests.

Reynolds holds the dubious record as being the first and only player to strikeout 200+ times in a major league season. In fact, he's done it three times in his first three full seasons. It seems that Jim Presley has helped him in cutting that number down and his power hasn't been affected.

In non-Orioles related predictions, Drew Stubbs and Adam Dunn currently project to join Reynolds in the 200 strikeout club. Stubbs and Dunn have struck out 127 and 124 times, respectively. Those numbers project to 210 and 205. Reynolds seems to be in a good place at just 107 (third in the majors with Mike Stanton).

Matt Wieters Wins a Gold Glove

Matt Wieters has been nothing but spectacular behind the plate this season for the Orioles.

Wieters is tied with Kurt Suzuki for the second most runners caught stealing with 26. Alex Avila has caught two more runners, but has also allowed 20 more steals than Wieters. The simple fact is that coaches have begun to recognize that Wieters shuts down the running game and have stopped sending runners. A good time for a catcher's release and throw has been 2 seconds in the past. Buck Showalter claims that not only does Wieters clock in at 1.8 seconds, but also he throws accurately. That makes the difference.

Wieters also blocks the plate well. His large 6'5" frame is enough to scare runners from trying to barrel through him like they would Buster Posey. Derek Jeter will be the first to admit that he ran into a wall while trying to score in an April 24th game at the Orioles.

There is only one starting catcher in the majors without a passed ball. Would you be surprised if I said it was Wieters?

With Mauer's injury and move to first during Morneau's absence, Wieters has emerged as the AL's best defensive catcher. He may also be challenging Yadier Molina as the best in the majors.

Adam Jones and Markakis Are Snubbed for Gold Gloves

It seems every year that Nick Markakis shows off incredible range and a rocket arm in right, but never wins the Gold Glove. Adam Jones got one two years ago and is playing better defense than he has ever played. Neither will win Gold Gloves though.

Jones and Markakis have 18 outfield assists between them. Nick Markakis' game saving catch against Tampa in game two of the season was nothing less than spectacular. Adam Jones' Willie Mays-style catch in center with a wall climb might be the play of the year. The only problem is: they play in Baltimore.

The voting for the award is skewed and usually favors those who have won it before, play center, or play for winners. Jones is two of three, but it seems much more likely that someone else will take the award. Jacoby Ellsbury seems like a smart pick for one. Franklin Gutierrez and Carl Crawford will probably take the other two as holdovers from 2010.

When the Orioles start winning, the recognition will follow, but these outfielders don't outplay the rest of the field like Wieters, so they have to keep waiting.

Justin Duchscherer Never Throws a Pitch for the Orioles and Retires

This one is a no-brainer. Duchscherer missed all of 2009 and only made five starts in 2010. He has struggled with hip issues and has had surgery on both hips.

When the Orioles signed him to an incentive-laden $700,000 deal, it seemed smart and worth the risk. Unfortunately, it didn't work out. Duchscherer had more trouble with his hips and every time he seemed to be ready to take a step in the right direction, he would have tightness or a flare up.

At this point, Duchscherer has been advised to have another hip surgery. I can't see him coming back again. It's unfortunate to see such a talented pitcher lose his career to injuries, but it's time for Justin Duchscherer to hang up the cleats. Then announcers everywhere can be relieved that they don't have to attempt to pronounce his name correctly.

Repeat of the End of 2010

When Buck Showalter took over in 2010, the Orioles became worth watching again. Showalter won more games in August and September than Dave Trembley and Juan Samuel had won combined and the Orioles had the best record in the AL East in that span. The pitching was magnificent and timely hits seemed like a constant.

In his first full season with the Orioles, Buck has seen the team revert to the same team that threatened to lose 100 games at the beginning of 2010. I feel like that is about to change.

The pitching is beginning to return to greatness. Jake Arrieta, Jeremy Guthrie and Alfredo Simon all turned in seven innings of terrific baseball in the last go around and they seem to have turned the corner. Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman are working hard to make it back up and should rejoin in the August to September range for a repeat attempt. Zach Britton will also be back in the rotation in August. I'll get to them later.

The offense will be the biggest improvement and it will likely be due to addition by subtraction. Derrek Lee and Vladimir Guerrero are holding the team hostage by the fact that they are almost unbenchable and are entrenched in a spot too high in the lineup. When the Orioles get them out of Baltimore, better, younger hitters will be given their chance to shine.

Brian Roberts and Luke Scott are also going to come back from injury which should provide the spark to bring some wins back to the Orioles.

Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman and Zach Britton Return Reborn

Brian Matusz's struggles centered around his velocity issues when he returned from injury. The time in the minors gives him a chance to recondition himself and strengthen himself for the stretch. When he gets the velocity back (which is slowly returning), he will return to his old, ace-like form.

Chris Tillman has struggled with retiring the third out and builds huge pitch counts because of it. He just needs to work on putting away hitters and when he returns (likely in September), he will have enough seasoning to find just that.

Zach Britton will be in Baltimore the soonest and he just needs to shake that bad Boston start. He hit rock bottom, so the only way to go is up for the talented sinker-baller.

Zach Britton Leads the Team in Wins

Britton was dominant in the first few months and will be back at the end of July. When he does return, he will start to get run support because Vlad and D-Lee are gone.

Britton showed great poise when shrugging off questions about his meager run support. He missed a shutout against Seattle because the score was tied until the 12th, but didn't seem phased.

Zach Britton deserves run support and hasn't really been around for the resurgences of Mark Reynolds, Nick Markakis and J.J. Hardy. These bats with Jones and Wieters will propel Britton past Jake Arrieta to lead the team in wins.

Luke Scott Gets Shut Down

Scott's shoulder has been a problem all year because of a tear in his labrum. He finally got placed on the DL for it and will return soon from his rehab assignment.

I think that Scott and the team will realize that it is doing more bad than good to be pushing Scott's shoulder. Rehab or surgery can take care of the problem, so I believe that the Orioles will end Scott's season in late August to make sure that he has enough time to be ready by Opening Day 2012.

Bell to Third, Reynolds to First

If I'm right about Lee and Scott, someone will have to play first.

Reynolds has played first once or twice this year and the switch would serve him well. Reynolds leads the majors in errors and while Josh Bell isn't too much better, he is the lesser of two evils. I think that the overall defense would actually be better in this arrangement.

The other reason it could happen is because Bell needs consistent playing time and this is the perfect way to keep both coexisting in the lineup. This could add more power and versatility with the switch hitting third baseman.