Heating Up: Why Miami Will Win the NBA Championship

So let's get this on the table, for starters:

There's no match in the league for Shaq and DWade.

That's a no-brainer. The two titans of South Beach have no equals in terms of court presence and big-game moxie. Everyone knows that—but everyone also knows that Shaq and DWade can't right the ship in Miami all by themselves.

The real question:

Can the rest of the Heat step up to win another title after a 17-20 start?

My answer:

Damn right they can.

And it all comes down to the wild cards.

Jason Kapono, in his fourth season, has been lights-out from beyond the three-point arc.  If the former Bruin can stay at or near his 56 percent long-range clip, Pat Riley may have to find a spot for him in the starting five. Kapono also takes care of the ball (he only averages one turnover a game), and makes up for his one-on-one defensive shortcomings with a heady grasp of team D.

The flipside to that unexpected success is Antoine Walker, who has struggled with a loss of status in the wake of Kapono's rise. Still, though his 38 percent mark at the free-throw line has evoked memories of Chris Dudley, 'Toine's eight points-per and solid defense are key to the Heat's success. More importantly, he has a solid track record in the postseason—and Riley knows as well as anyone that true champions are made in the spring.

Another player to emerge from the rubble of the Heat's early-season trials is third-year forward Dorell Wright, whose mid-range jumper and solid play has eased the load of Shaq's sabbatical. After starting 19 games, Wright may see his minutes diminish as the playoffs approach—but he's done enough to impress Riley, who doesn't normally favor players without college experience.

And then there's Alonzo Mourning, who has had to carry the burden of Shaq's absence in the middle. The fearless vet has been better than anyone could have expected in the expanded role, notching an inhuman-for-a-36-year-old three blocks a game to go along with 10 points and and six boards. Like Walker, 'Zo is a proven postseason performer—and you can bet he'll be there when the Heat need him come May and June. 

Throw in the steady play of Udonis Haslem, James Posey, and Michael Doleac, and the bottom line is that, yes, the Heat can repeat as NBA champs—provided they continue to come together as they have without O'Neal.

The parity in the Eastern Conference means they're right in the thick of the postseason hunt. With Wade and a healthy Shaq leading the charge—to say nothing of Jason Williams, who's a top-three passer in the league—Miami would be  a nasty draw for any team in the playoffs.

My prediction: The Heat will show their mettle in the coming months and ride the underdog train straight through to the Finals. Expect a showdown with the Suns for all the marbles—and look for some serious fireworks when Wade and Steve Nash go toe-to-toe.

As for the winner, well—I'll defer to Sir Charles Barkley on this one:

"In this decade a team has to have Shaq to win the championship."

So long as the Big Aristotle's knee cooperates, there's no reason to believe 2007 will be any different.