Will the Mountain West Be a Double BCS Buster?

BCS Busters

There is a rule in place that no more than two teams from any one conference can participate in the Bowl Championship Series. Let us take a quick look at the top conferences' top two teams in the most recent BCS Poll.

1. (Big 12) No. 4 Texas and No. 2 Texas Tech
2. (SEC) No. 5 Florida and No. 1 Alabama
3. (Big Ten) No. 11 Ohio State and No. 3 Penn State
4. (MWC) No. 12 TCU and No. 8 Utah
5. (ACC) No. 20 Georgia Tech and No. 19 North Carolina
6. (PAC-10) No. 21 California and No. 7 USC
7. (Big East) only one team in top 25: No. 25 West Virginia

The winners of the six BCS Conferences (those above minus the Mountain West) get an automatic berth, and the top non-BCS Champion gets a seventh automatic berth (unless a miracle occurs). This leaves three of the 10 spots to be given to at-larges. Which teams are poised to get these At-Large positions?

In the top 16, the Big 12 has five teams and the SEC has four teams, which makes it almost a foregone conclusion that two of the at-large positions will be taken from these conferences.

If we look at the chart above, we might think the Big Ten is most likely to receive that last at-large position. In fact, we have to look all the way to the BCS No. 20 spot to see another BCS conference's second ranked team.

But let us look at the teams competing for that last spot. Keep in mind that the highest ranked among these teams (outside of the BCS Big Ten) will receive an automatic berth.

No. 8 Utah (9-0) (MWC)

Utah was the original BCS buster with a No. 6 ranking following the 2004 season. Utah is the highest ranked team outside of the BCS conferences, and if they win against also-ranked TCU (Nov. 6) and BYU (Nov. 22), they will almost assuredly be a lock for the automatic bid.

No. 10 Boise State (8-0) (WAC)

Boise State was the last successful BCS buster in 2006, and their remaining opponents are mostly lackluster. The season finale hosting Fresno State (Nov. 28) will be the most interesting game to watch. As the Big 12 elite continue to knock each other off, Boise State could climb into the top eight.

No. 11 Ohio State (7-2) (Big Ten)

Ohio State is probably in the best position among these teams with a Rose Bowl that could select them should Penn State ascend into the National Championship. However, final games against ranked Northwestern (Nov. 8), dangerous Illinois (Nov. 15), and rival Michigan (Nov. 22) are not all guaranteed wins.

No. 12 TCU (9-1) (MWC)

TCU is also in position to win the Mountain West title, as their only loss comes against No. 6 Oklahoma. Their final games against Utah (Nov. 6) and Air Force (Nov. 22) will both be tough, and winning out could propel them above Boise State for the automatic bid.

No. 15 BYU (8-1) (MWC)

BYU will most likely be on the outside looking in. Their schedule ends with away games at Air Force (Nov. 15) and Utah (Nov. 22). Additional losses from TCU, Utah, and Boise State each would be needed for the automatic berth.

No. 17 Ball State (8-0) (MAC)

Ball State can go undefeated and completely miss the BCS because it would take an absolute bloodbath in the Mountain West and Boise State to obtain the automatic berth, and no self-respecting bowl would pick the MAC champion over an eligible BCS team. The MAC Championship Game (Dec. 2) will be Ball State's last chance at wooing the human pollsters.

No. 18 Michigan State (8-2) (Big Ten)

Michigan State can actually win the Big Ten by winning out as they hold the tiebreaker for any three-way tie with Penn State and Ohio State. The game against Penn State (Nov. 22) would be a de facto Big Ten championship game, and a win here would probably grant Penn State the last at-large spot.

Analysis

The BCS selects its at-large teams from the pool of top 14 ranked teams. Most likely it will be two of the above listed teams (or a non-champion Penn State team), which will round out the 10 BCS teams.

This year there looks like great potential for TWO non-BCS teams to make it. Looking at the current standings, this looks possible if the above teams continue to win and Ohio State takes another loss.

As another or two Big 12 teams fall, there will be increased room for two Mountain West teams and undefeated Boise State and Ball State to all move into the top 14.

Without a second team from the Big Ten in the top 14 and conference runner-ups from the ACC, Pac-10, and Big East far below in the standings, it looks as if the BCS will be forced to open its doors even wider this year.

It is hard to say what the implications of this would be. Certainly with the only Big East team ranked at No. 25, automatic berths to the BCS will again be evaluated. The Mountain West is certainly giving a stronger showing at the top.