Pac-12 or SEC: Which Conference is Deeper?

This fall, the 10 teams who have made up the Pac-10 since 1978 (when Arizona and Arizona State combined with the Pac-8) will be joined by Utah and Colorado to form the new Pac-12.

The expanded affiliation splits the conference into two divisions (North and South), which adds the excitement of a title game to conclusively decide the Pac-12 champion.

So, now that the conference from the West Coast can boast a full dozen teams how to they stack up against the SEC, which has arguably been the biggest, baddest conference over the last several years?

The following slideshow attempts to compare the two associations and gives each conference (first the Pac-12 and then the SEC) five slides to prove that they have more overall depth than the other and then wraps up with a final slide declaring a winner.

It seems prudent to mention that by “deeper,” we mean that the conference in question has, top to bottom, more championship caliber programs (year in and year out) than the other.

We’re looking for the group that’s not only top heavy but one that also is thick in the middle and only has a couple of weak teams at the bottom (consistently).

As another note, to keep things more equitable we will make, in most cases, comparisons based on stats earned in the “BCS era” which started in 1998-99.

Pac-12: BCS Wins

Both the Pac-10 and the SEC have gotten the same opportunity as far as BCS bowl bids are concerned; both have an automatic qualifier in their conference champion and both have an “equal” shot (as “equal” as something as complex as the BCS can be) at an “at large” bid.

So, a fair comparison between the two would not be so much who went to the BCS, but who actually won their BCS games (which is a valuable indicator in that the “best” teams of each big conference are playing one another).

Overall, the teams of the Pac-10 have been to the BCS 15 times, and their combined record is 10-5, which nets a 67 percent winning ratio.

It’s important to note that these figures include USC’s full participation and does not deduct any games that have subsequently been “vacated.”

 You could make a solid argument that the games with asterisks should not be included, but to me, it seems more equitable to include all appearances and wins that actually happened (because, well, they did).

Pac-12: BCS National Titles

The ultimate goal (and therefore, the ultimate power indicator for a conference) in college football is to win the big cheesy (and gravy laden) enchilada.

The Pac-10 has technically made the title game three times and (again technically) gone 1-2 in these games.

This nets an overall winning ratio of 33.3 percent in BCS championships and one actual title won since the dawn of the BCS era (1998).

Again, this number includes USC’s “vacated” championship games, which would be unfair to remove because technically, the Pac-10 would have had another champion and another BCS representative who could have well had the same success ratio (you simply can’t take if’s that far and make it fair).

Pac-12: Spreading the Conference Title

A good indicator of depth in a conference is how the title is spread across the member teams. In other words, if one team normally wins the championship, the conference is not as deep as it would be if the titles were won by a variety of teams.

Another illustration of this concept is by looking at what might be defined a “deep” basketball team, which will always include guys from the bench who contribute in terms of scoring; in other words you don’t have “depth” if all your points are predominantly provided by a couple of guys (and subsequently, the scoring stops of one of the superstars goes down or is off).

Since 1998, seven teams have claimed at least a piece of one Pac-10 crown (UCLA, Stanford, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State, Cal and Arizona State), while Oregon has a claim to four and USC claims at least a part of seven titles.

You could look at this a number of different ways but basically, of the 13 championships awarded since 1998, USC has claimed a piece of 53 percent of them, Oregon has 30 percent, and everybody but Arizona has a claim to eight percent of the championship pie.

The lack of a championship game (and therefore the resulting “shared” titles) obviously make these numbers confusing, but at the end of the day, we’re dealing with a conference that has been dominated in recent years by USC with the Ducks making a strong move to the front in the last couple of years.

Pac-12: Bottom Feeders

Another interesting indicator of “depth” is who and how many programs live at the bottom of the conference.

Though it’s far easier to find the basement in a very tough conference, associations who historically have an abundance of bottom feeders make things easier for the teams at the top, a cycle that greatly reduces the all important depth part of our question.

Pointing out “low lying” teams within a conference is admittedly nothing but subjective, but for this illustration, we’ll count total seasons in which member teams have had four wins or less (below a 34 percent winning ratio) in the BCS era as the “bottom feeders.”

Since 1998, the Pac-10 has produced 28 four win (or less) seasons. The breakdown is as follows; Arizona (4), Arizona State (2), California (3), Oregon (0), Oregon State (0), USC (0), Stanford (6), UCLA (2), Washington (4) and Washington State (7).

Pac-12: the Add-Ons

The previous four slides establishes some depth indicating numbers for the previous Pac-10, but what of the newly expanded Pac-12 with Colorado and Utah in tow?

Again, it’s hardly comparing apples to apples, but here are the same numbers including the Buffaloes and Utes, which gives a better idea of how the new conference looks (statistically).

BCS Wins

Previously: 10-5, or 67 percent

Adding in Colorado and Utah: 13-6, or 68 percent

BCS National Titles

Previously: 1-2, or 33 percent

Adding in Colorado and Utah: 1-2, or 33 percent

It’s only fair to mention that Utah had two undefeated seasons during this same time period and was not afforded an opportunity to play for the national championship.

 

Spreading the Conference Title

Previously: USC and Oregon hold at least a piece of 11 of the 13 conference titles since 1998 (and USC has seven of these).

Adding in Colorado and Utah:  Well, you absolutely can’t say (definitively) that the Buffs and Utes would have won the conference if they had played in the Pac-10, but the two newbies have five conference titles between them during the same time period.

If Colorado and Utah had won even half of these in the confines of the Pac-12, you certainly could argue a better spread could have been achieved (again, wow, that’s subjective and questionable at best).

Bottom Feeders

Previously: 28 teams with four or less wins in a season since 1998

Adding in Colorado and Utah: 32 teams with four or less wins in a season since 1998

SEC: BCS Wins

Moving on to the highly touted conference from the oh so steamy south, the SEC has garnered 21 BCS bids and is 15-6 overall in BCS play.

This means that SEC teams are 71 percent successful in the highest level of postseason play.

SEC: BCS National Titles

The SEC has made it to a whopping seven BCS National Title games and is a perfect 7-0 when playing for the coveted crystal football.

As a side note, how many teams with a perfect record have been left out of the big game while an SEC team has gone on?  That’s an interesting question because opportunity always has a lot to do with results.

That said it’s hard to argue a 7-0 record in 13 seasons of BCS national title games; it’s flat impressive no matter how you slice it up.

SEC: Spreading the Conference Titles

The SEC has been hosting a conference championship game since 1992, which makes calculating how the far the title spreads much simpler.

Since the beginning of the BCS era (again, 1998) six teams have worn the SEC crown (I would say tiara, but that would really get some folks hot under the collar), following is the breakdown; Tennessee, 1 (or eight percent), Alabama, 2 (or 15 percent), Florida, 3 (or 23 percent), LSU, 3 (or 23 percent), Georgia, 2 (or 15 percent) and Auburn, 2 (15 percent).

 This equates to an impressive spread involving 50 percent of the member teams and also is split well between the two divisions (the East has 46 percent while the West has 54 percent of the last 13 titles).

SEC: Bottom Feeders

The SEC has produced teams with less than four win seasons 34 times since 1998. Following is how it breaks out: Alabama (2), Arkansas (1), Auburn (1), Florida (0), Georgia (0), Kentucky (5), LSU (2), Ole Miss (5), Mississippi State (7), South Carolina (2), Tennessee (0) and Vanderbilt (9).

 This number should be qualified by saying that these teams are all forced to play one another each and every year, which means there are no easy seasons in the SEC.

As far as Alabama was concerned, we again went with straight numbers, including “vacated” games and counted wins as wins and losses as losses (as originally played).

 

SEC: Straight up against the Pac-12

Another great indicator of depth and how conferences stack up against each other is counting wins and losses in inter-conference play. 

It’s certainly not an exact science (you can’t necessarily control who plays who and what kind of season their having in a given year), but the randomness of it gives a pretty good indicator of who is more successful.

All-time, the SEC is 69-44-7 against the Pac-10 (or 60.4 percent) and has outscored their western neighbors by 477 points overall.

Colorado is 3-9-1 against the SEC and Utah is 1-6 against the big boys, so if you add them into the equation, the SEC is 84-48-8 all-time against the newly expanded Pac-12.

The Bottom Line

If you look at all the evidence (which can hardly be called “all,” so let’s just call it the evidence that is “here”) the results are as follows:

BCS Wins

Pac-12:  13-6, or 68 percent

SEC: 15-6, or 71 percent

Advantage: SEC by a nose

BCS National Titles

Pac 12: 1-2, or 33 percent

SEC: 7-0, or 100 percent

Advantage: SEC, hands down

Spreading the Conference Title

Pac-12: Two teams account for at least a piece of 11 of the last 13 titles (84 percent)

SEC: Six teams have won the past 13 titles and the highest mark any one team has is three (or 23 percent).

Advantage: SEC

Bottom Feeders

Pac-12: 32 teams with four or less win seasons since 1998.

SEC: 34 teams with four or less win seasons since 1998.

Advantage: Pac-12 by a nose.

 

Straight Up Pac-12 vs. SEC

Advantage: SEC has 84-48-8 advantage over the Pac-12 in head to head match-ups (all-time).

It’s pretty clear that in terms of depth, the SEC has a clear advantage over the expanded Pac-12. They’ve won more BCS games, claimed more national titles (in the BCS era) and spread the wealth more within their own conference (i.e. their bench is super strong). Even though they have a couple more teams who have struggled over the past 13 seasons, they have a clear advantage in head-to-head competition against the new Pac-12.

Though we’ve hardly presented every piece of factual information and certainly haven’t analyzed every angle of this argument (or really compared true apples to apples), the SEC appears to be the dominant conference even with the addition of Utah and Colorado to the Pac-12.

What will be intriguing moving forward is seeing how long the SEC can retain their deep seeded domination of college football. Indeed, who, if anyone, can end the southern gridiron coalition’s reign on the greatest of our team sports?