2011 MLB All-Star Game: Who Should Start?
With the 2011 MLB All-Star game voting ending Thursday night and the updated tallies published yesterday, it's about time to examine what mistakes are being made and who most deserves to be starting.
Unfortunately, as we all know, voting tends to become a popularity contest or whoever has the best baseball card stats (AVG, HR, RBI). This will look past that to who deserves it most.
American League: First Base
1 of 13Updated Voting Results
1. Adrian Gonzalez, Red Sox: 4,014,722
2. Mark Teixeira, Yankees: 3,077,242
3. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers: 2,184,480
4. Mitch Moreland, Rangers: 1,209,258
5. Paul Konerko, White Sox: 932,422
Who Should Start: Adrian Gonzalez
Adrian Gonzalez must be happy he left PETCO Park.
He's responded not only with the flashy baseball card stats, but is dominant sabermetrically as well; hitting .357 with 16 homers and 71 RBI will cause any casual fan to be their top choice.
But his 4.4 WAR (fangraphs' version) leads the competition by a full win over next closest, Miguel Cabrera. Even though Cabrera has a significantly higher on-base percentage, Gonzalez's slightly better power and superior fielding more than make up for it.
Seeing Mitch Moreland fourth is a glaring mistake. He is not close to Konerko or even Adam Lind, who did not make the top five despite being on the ballot at first base.
American League: Second Base
2 of 13Updated Voting Results
1. Robinson Cano, Yankees: 4,724,816
2. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox: 2,979,181
3. Ian Kinsler, Rangers: 1,896,259
4. Orlando Cabrera, Indians: 1,127,840
5. Ben Zobrist, Rays: 963,481
Who Should Start: Ben Zobrist
It was a close choice between Zobrist and Howie Kendrick. While Zobrist leads the position in WAR at 4.0, Kendrick is tied for second with Pedroia at 3.6. Not only is Zobrist's .362 wOBA third at the position, he is also arguably the best defender.
You could also make an argument for voting Kendrick as the starter. Kendrick has played 12 less games than Zobrist. With those extra 12 games, it's very possible Kendrick could be leading the position in WAR. If Pedroia didn't get off to such a slow start, he could also have been the choice, but it still cannot be overlooked.
While Cano is still a great hitter, it hasn't been enough to make up for his very low walk-rate and below-average defense.
Orlando Cabrera at fourth is a joke. Obviously he was getting votes from either big-time Cleveland homers or people who just didn't want to vote a Boston or New York player in because of spite, and he was the next most recognizable name. He currently ranks last among American League second basemen with a -0.4 WAR.
American League: Shortstop
3 of 13Updated Voting Results
1. Derek Jeter, Yankees: 3,392,128
2. Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians: 2,885,778
3. Elvis Andrus, Rangers: 1,971,514
4. Jhonny Peralta, Tigers: 1,178,114
5. Marco Scutaro, Red Sox: 1,099,744
Who Should Start: Jhonny Peralta
Jeter isn't close to an All-Star-caliber player anymore. I hope Cabrera, who is much more deserving, can overtake him in the voting, but I think it's too late to climb over 500,000 votes.
With that being said, it boils down to three guys: Jhonny Peralta, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Alexei Ramirez.
Only a 10th of a win above replacement separates these three at the top. However, I believe Peralta would be at the very top if it wasn't for him playing seven and eight less games than the other two.
Peralta's .379 wOBA is highest among American League shortstops. While Cabrera is close behind him, Peralta's defense is slightly better. Ramirez's defense trumps either one by far, but his .335 wOBA is far behind both players.
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American League: Third Base
4 of 13Updated Voting Results
1. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees: 3,735,406
2. Adrian Beltre, Rangers: 2,935,373
3. Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox: 2,724,286
4. Evan Longoria, Rays: 2,000,379
5. Brandon Inge, Tigers: 633,519
Who Should Start: Alex Rodriguez
If Longoria was healthy all year, this could have been a tough choice, but right now it isn't. Rodriguez leads the position offensively with a .393 wOBA and, surprisingly, has been one of the best defenders at the position.
He's currently on pace for a 21.1 UZR per 150 games, which would be far and above any of his previous seasons. The Fielding Bible also has him saving 5-6 runs defensively thus far.
American League: Catcher
5 of 13Updated Voting Results
1. Russell Martin, Yankees: 2,779,592
2. Alex Avila, Tigers: 2,345,065
3. Joe Mauer, Twins: 1,699,604
4. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Red Sox: 1,505,143
5. Yorvit Torrealba, Rangers: 1,309,802
Who Should Start: Alex Avila
With Mauer hurt most of the year, the field was wide open for the taking. After a very hot start, Russell Martin has came crashing back to earth, posting a .190/.306/.272 line since April 24. Still, you can't discredit the good start that aided in his 1.6 WAR.
However, that's still well behind Avila's 2.6 WAR. Avila's .392 wOBA is well ahead of the next closest full-time catcher, Carlos Santana, who currently sits at .337. While I don't think Avila can continue his pace in the second half, thus far he's been the obvious best catcher for the first half.
American League: Outfielders
6 of 13Updated Voting Results
1. Jose Bautista, Blue Jays: 5,263,840
2. Curtis Granderson, Yankees: 4,582,419
3. Josh Hamilton, Rangers: 3,173,000
4. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox: 3,051,675
5. Carl Crawford, Red Sox: 2,294,337
6. Nelson Cruz, Rangers: 1,912,783
7. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners: 1,912,062
8. Nick Swisher, Yankees: 1,648,599
9. Brett Gardner, Yankees: 1,499,367
10. J.D. Drew, Red Sox: 1,428,367
11. Matt Joyce, Rays: 1,226,439
12. Jeff Francoeur, Royals: 1,061,445
13. David Murphy, Rangers: 1,057,887
14. Grady Sizemore, Indians: 1,033,014
15. Shin-Soo Choo, Indians: 924,326
Who Should Start: Jose Bautista, Curtis Granderson, Jacoby Ellsbury
Jose Bautista needs no explanation.
Granderson is on pace for a career year, hitting 21 homers en route to a .405 wOBA and 4.2 WAR. Hitting a fly ball half of the time he makes contact gives him plenty of opportunity for homers.
Hamilton may be the more talented player, but injuries have cost him too much time.
Ellsbury has rebounded strongly this year; his 3.5 WAR is third among those on the ballot. Most surprising is his increased power. His nine homers already ties his personal best season's total. Hopefully he can make up the small difference when voting ends.
How on earth did David Murphy sneak in there? Crawford and Ichiro are obviously too high as well; they have combined for a 0.0 WAR.
American League: Designated Hitter
7 of 13Updated Voting Results
1. David Ortiz, Red Sox: 4,237,014
2. Michael Young, Rangers: 2,235,504
3. Jorge Posada, Yankees: 1,453,385
4. Victor Martinez, Tigers: 1,234,879
5. Johnny Damon, Rays: 1,028,366
Who Should Start: David Ortiz
Ortiz has been mashing all year. Clearly the best option.
Posada in third is horrible, unless you're picking from the bottom up.
National League: First Base
8 of 13Updated Voting Results
1. Albert Pujols, Cardinals: 3,358,432
2. Prince Fielder, Brewers: 2,903,584
3. Joey Votto, Reds: 2,832,857
4. Ryan Howard, Phillies: 1,881,711
5. Freddie Freeman, Braves: 702,911
Who Should Start: Prince Fielder
With Pujols' injury, Fielder is the current favorite to start the game anyway.
It's hard knocking Pujols off his perch, but even if he didn't have his injury, Fielder would deserve the nod. His .437 wOBA and 3.8 WAR lead the position, slightly ahead of Joey Votto. His dramatic increase in contact percentage has been instrumental in this season's turnaround.
Another random odd-ball in there is Freddie Freeman; I didn't think there would be enough diehard Atlanta fans to do that. Not much respect for Gaby Sanchez out there, I presume.
National League: Second Base
9 of 13Updated Voting Results
1. Rickie Weeks, Brewers: 2,869,583
2. Brandon Phillips, Reds: 2,791,186
3. Chase Utley, Phillies: 2,406,965
4. Dan Uggla, Braves: 1,223,812
5. Freddy Sanchez, Giants: 1,184,145
Who Should Start: Rickie Weeks
It's a shame not to see Danny Espinosa among the top five, especially with Uggla in there.
He's had a tremendous season, but just not good enough to top Weeks.
When Weeks is healthy, he's a stud. His .373 wOBA and 3.6 WAR lead the position comfortably. If Utley was healthy the entire year it could be a different story, but alas, he was not.
National League: Shortstop
10 of 13Updated Voting Results
1. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies: 2,955,609
2. Jose Reyes, Mets: 2,710,777
3. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies: 1,724,166
4. Alex Gonzalez, Braves: 1,142,470
5. Yuniesky Betancourt, Brewers: 1,131,078
Who Should Start: Jose Reyes
A lot of people must not like Jose Reyes. For a New York player having the kind of year he's having and not be the top vote-getter is amazing. He leads the entire National League, including pitchers, in WAR with 5.1.
And Betancourt fifth! Might as well have Wilson Valdez up there. If Hanley Ramirez does not enter beast mode from seeing that, I'll be very disappointed.
National League: Third Base
11 of 13Updated Voting Results
1. Placido Polanco, Phillies: 3,261,718
2. Chipper Jones, Braves: 2,040,594
3. Pablo Sandoval, Giants: 1,584,671
4. David Wright, Mets: 1,497,778
5. Scott Rolen, Reds: 1,417,248
Who Should Start: Chase Headley
It's been a bad year for National League third basemen.
All because Ryan Zimmerman had to get hurt, you actually had to write in one of the most deserving players, Ryan Roberts. After a few beers at the game though, adults will be too lazy for that nonsense. Half of the write-ins probably ended up for Brian Roberts anyway.
Even though Headley currently sits third at the position in WAR with 1.9, he's just behind Roberts and Polanco, who have 2.1 and 2.0, respectively.
However, when you consider Fangraphs' wOBA,which is incorporated into WAR, is not park-adjusted, I have to give Headley the nod. Headley is currently tied for the lead among those with at least 100 plate appearances in wOBA with .362 and would undoubtedly be leading if it wasn't for Petco Park; his .303/.399/.409 would be .316/.412/.428 at a neutral park. If he played in Arizona like Roberts, it'd be even better at .321/.420/.432.
Polanco has fully regressed to the mean following his torrid start. Although he is the best fielder among himself, Roberts and Headley, his .319 wOBA is not quite enough to make up for it, in my opinion.
If you are more into giving guys who missed time some extra credit, Pablo Sandoval attained 1.7 WAR despite playing in half as many games as Roberts, Polanco and Headley. I certainly would not argue against him.
National League: Catcher
12 of 13Updated Voting Results
1. Brian McCann, Braves: 3,062,884
2. Yadier Molina, Cardinals: 2,271,887
3. Buster Posey, Giants: 1,849,984
4. Jonathan Lucroy, Brewers: 1,451,280
5. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies: 1,392,944
Who Should Start: Brian McCann
Clearly the best catcher in the National League with Posey out. Miguel Montero and Chris Iannetta should have gotten in the top five.
National League: Outfielders
13 of 13Updated Voting Results
1. Ryan Braun, Brewers: 3,932,100
2. Lance Berkman, Cardinals: 3,208,183
3. Matt Holliday, Cardinals: 2,935,965
4. Matt Kemp, Dodgers: 2,743,927
5. Andre Ethier, Dodgers: 2,264,640
6. Jay Bruce, Reds: 2,119,267
7. Shane Victorino, Phillies: 1,742,128
8. Carlos Beltran, Mets: 1,639,362
9. Jason Heyward, Braves: 1,302,127
10. Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies: 1,253,728
11. Raul Ibanez, Phillies: 1,239,678
12. Corey Hart, Brewers: 1,217,629
13. Justin Upton, D-backs: 1,141,296
14. Carlos Gomez, Brewers: 1,016,685
15. Martin Prado, Braves: 1,012,084
Who Should Start: Kemp, Andrew McCutchen, Matt Holliday
Kemp is an easy choice. Even with suspect fielding, he's clearly been the best offensive player; his .453 wOBA leads the entire National League.
After that, it gets difficult. McCutchen, Victorino, Holliday, Braun, and Upton all have legitimate claims.
| Player | wOBA | Cumulative UZR | WAR (Fangraphs) | WAR (Baseball-Reference) |
| Shane Victorino, CF | .385 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 2.6 |
| Andrew McCutchen, CF | .383 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 4.6 |
| Matt Holliday, LF | .430 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 2.6 |
| Ryan Braun, LF | .417 | -3.9 | 3.7 | 3.8 |
| Justin Upton, RF | .393 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.0 |
As you can see, both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference agree with McCutchen as the second-best outfielder. Even though he is on the weaker side of hitting compared with the group, he's arguably the best fielder along with Shane Victorino, depending on what fielding metrics you are looking at.
Unfortunately for Victorino, he missed some games, and the defensive metric Baseball-Reference uses for fielding was not particularly fond of Victorino.
But I have a hard time believing Baseball-Reference's fielding metrics used for WAR. They currently have Ryan Braun as an equal fielder as Victorino and better than Holliday. For reference sake, they also had Kemp as an almost average outfielder since 2010.
The reason I'm going with Holliday is that I believe if he didn't miss all those extra games, he'd be atop of that group—or at least in third—in WAR. He's the best offensive player of the five and above average defensively, even if it's left field.
It's a travesty McCutchen is not voted among the top 15. I have no idea what people are thinking when they see a guy like Ibanez, who is currently last in all of baseball in WAR, 11th in the voting.
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