NBA Free Agency: 7 Players Teams Will Overpay

NBA free agency starts on July 1. Or at least it is supposed to. It almost certainly won’t because apparently one league with crippling labor woes just isn’t enough these days. The players will likely be locked out on July 1, but sooner or later players will be offered oversized contracts to join new teams or stay with their old ones. 

Free agent investments can obviously pay off handsomely, but they just as often do not. Here are my NBA picks for seven guys that are going to get some attention in free agency and are almost certain to be paid more than they should be:

Tyson Chandler, C

Chandler was a big part of the championship for Dallas, and he improved his free agent value immensely. He improved it so much, in fact, that he is regularly being talked about as the best of this underwhelming free agency class.

While I respect what Chandler did, I think it would be a horrible mistake to spend a fortune on him—which is what some team will do. He’s wildly inconsistent—if he wasn’t then he wouldn’t have been on three teams in the last three years. Health has been a factor as well, and seven-footers never get healthier as they get older.

Nene, C

When the guy is healthy he is an absolute beast. He’s totally terrifying in the paint. If you could be sure that you were going to see a lot of him then you could easily justify a big contract. You certainly can’t guarantee that, though.

He has played nine NBA seasons, and two of them have essentially been lost to injury, with big chunks of two others missing as well. There is a good chance you’ll pay him to wear a suit and sit in the stands during games. Like Chandler, the problem is that he’s a center in a center-starved league, so a team is inevitably going to overpay for him.

J.J. Barea, PG

Barea’s timing is perfect. He had a very good playoff run—which included strong showings in the NBA Finals—at the time when he just happened to be on the verge of free agency.

Barea was fantastic when he had to be, but I just can’t buy that he can sustain it to the extent that his new contract will likely suggest that he should. One stat stands out to make me nervous. When Dirk Nowitzki was on the court, Barea shot 44 percent from the field, but that percentage dropped off a cliff to 24 when Dirk took a rest.

A good player should not be that dependent on one teammate.

Jason Richardson, SG

When I think of Richardson I can’t help but think of Dan Majerle. The two players are very similar in a lot of ways. That comparison isn’t good news for whatever team signs Richardson here. He’s 30. When Majerle was that age he was a capable and valuable backup, but his days as a consistent backup were mostly behind him.

Richardson could be very valuable guy off the bench, but he’ll likely be paid starter money and be burdened with starter expectations. It seems like too much of a risk to me.

Nick Young, SG

It’s almost certain that someone will badly overpay for Young. He can score, and his 17.4 points per game last year are going to get teams to pay attention and open their wallets.

The problem, though, is that scoring is pretty much all Young can do. He can’t rebound. He is a guard that is totally incapable of dishing out assists. His defense is often indifferent and occasionally awful. He’s a one-trick pony, and some team is going to pay far too much for that trick.

Alexis Ajinca, C

As I said before, teams are starved for centers.

There is a surprising amount of buzz building around this Raptor, and there is talk that he’s a guy with massive upside. There is little in three years with three teams that makes me believe that, though.

The guy has been unremarkable, and has not made big leaps forward over the course of his career. Sometimes centers take a while to develop, but more often a guy who is a project never turns into much more than that.

Greg Oden, C

Some team is going to pay Greg Oden to play basketball. If they pay him more than the league minimum then they have badly overpaid.

He’s a total mess. He can’t stay healthy. He probably needs to get lighter to stand a chance of staying healthy in the future, and lighter is not what you want from a center. Reports have emerged that he’s had trouble dealing with the stress of his situation, so he’s not exactly a pressure performer.

He’s a bust, and a lot of money has been wasted trying to be the team that salvages a bust.