UFC 133 Fight Card: Rashad Evans vs. Phil Davis, Early Head To Toe Breakdown

Poor, Rashad.

Since losing the light heavyweight championship to Lyoto Machida back in 2009, Rashad Evans has defeated top contenders Thiago Silva and Quinton Jackson.

Evans was supposed to face Mauricio Rua in March for the UFC's light heavyweight belt, but an injury forced him to withdraw from the bout.

Then, he was supposed to face Jon Jones for the championship at UFC 133, but Jones was forced to drop out of the fight.

Now, Rashad has lost his shot for the title and instead will face Phil Davis.

This is a high risk fight for Rashad. A win will likely earn him the next title shot in the light heavyweight division. However, a loss for Evans would be devastating. Davis looked relatively unimpressive in his last fight with Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, so if Rashad loses people will seriously begin to question his place in the division.

For Phil, this is a very low risk fight. He is a replacement fighter, so the UFC will be happy with him for helping them out of a tight spot, regardless of whether he wins or loses.

If Davis does lose, it doesn't hurt him too much because most people don't think he is ready for Rashad anyways. If he wins, it'll catapult him into title contention.

Let's see how these two stack up...

Experience

Rashad has been fighting for the UFC for six years. He has fought in two different weight classes, fought some of the best in world and won a UFC championship.

Phil Davis has been fighting the UFC for less than two years and while he has accomplished a lot in that short amount of time, his accolades don't even come close the Evans'.

Evans has faced the divisions' elite and Phil Davis most dangerous opponent has been Rogerio Nogueira, who is no more than a gatekeeper at light heavyweight.

Edge: Rashad Evans

Cardio

This one should be pretty much dead even.

Both Rashad and Phil have proved that they have what it takes to go three rounds in a grueling fight.

Davis did look pretty tired at the end of his fight with Nogueira, but he was still able to perform very well in spite of his fatigue.

Sometimes if a fighter is nervous going into a fight, it can effect their cardio. So, if Davis is nervous for this fight (it is the biggest fight of his career), it could have a negative effect on his performance. That's a touch too speculative for me to consider it a legitimate factor, though.

Edge: Push

Striking

Rashad has a clear cut advantage in the striking department. He isn't really known for his kicks, but he has some of the best boxing in the division. He showed us how quick his hands can be against Quinton Jackson and against Chuck Liddell he showed us that he has devastating power.

Davis' striking is coming along, but he still has a lot of improving to do. Wrestling is Phil's bread and butter and when he can't get the fight to the ground, he doesn't look that great. Rogerio Nogueira was able to  expose Phil on the feet in their fight, but lost the decision because he couldn't stop his takedowns.

The only thing Phil has going for him, as far as striking goes, is a four inch reach advantage. That's something, but it won't be enough to overcome Rashad's superior technique.

Edge: Rashad Evans

Chin

Evan's can take a pretty good punch, but his chin has proven to be a bit suspect over the past few years. Rashad was knocked out by Lyoto Machida and also rocked by Quinton Jackson and Thiago Silva.

Phil took a lot of punishment on the feet against Rogerio, but never seemed like his was in any serious trouble. That's pretty impressive given that Norgueira has shown in the past that he has knockout power.

Edge: Phil Davis

Wrestling

This one is very tough to call.

Both men are NCAA Division I wrestlers and have done an excellent of job of adapting their wrestling for mixed martial arts.

Out of the two, I would say that Rashad is faster and has more explosive takedowns.

However, Davis is the larger fighter and I expect him to have the strength advantage.

All in all, it's pretty much even.

Edge: Push

Jiu-Jitsu

Rashad Evans is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. He mostly uses his BJJ skills to control fighters, which goes along with his wrestling background, rather than going for submissions. It has proved to be a winning strategy.

Whenever Evans gets a fight to the ground he is able to control his opponents and he has never been submitted.

Phil Davis is only a blue belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, but has shown skills beyond his proper rank. He has three submission wins in his short MMA career, one of which was an impressive kimura submission over Tim Boetsch. Like Rashad, Phil is also effective at using jiu-jitsu to complement his wrestling.

Phil might deserve to be above a blue belt, but I don't think he is on Rashad's level yet.

That being said, Davis went three rounds without getting submitted by Rogerio Nogueira, so I don't think Evans will be able to one off.

Edge: Rashad Evans

Winner?

This is a huge test for Phil Davis and I don't think he's quite ready for it.

Rashad has much better hands than Phil and I expect Rashad to expose that as much as possible.

Evans also has very good wrestling defense, so I think he will be able to keep this fight on the feet. He might give up a takedown or two, but I think he'll keep it standing enough to win rounds.

Rashad is going to be worried about the takedown, so he won't be putting everything he has into his punches and probably won't be able to put Davis away, as a result.

I'm thinking the wrestling will pretty much cancel each other out, with each fighter getting a few takedowns throughout the course of the fight and Rashad's superior striking will earn him the decision.

Winner: Rashad Evans via Unanimous Decision