Seattle Mariners Still Lacking Pieces to Actually Compete

Who would have thought that on June 19 the Seattle Mariners would be 1.5 games out of first place in the AL West?

There is more to the story of course than Seattle actually being a playoff-caliber team, like the other three teams in the division having its share of hiccups and disappointments.

This team has had six players make their Major League debut this year—Dustin Ackley being the latest. With most of their top prospects coming into this year already on the team, there is little left to wait for.

Players like Ackley, Justin Smoak, Michael Pineda, and Greg Halman are good starting points to building a team around, but as this team sits now it lacks enough good hitters to actually keep up with the rest of the American League.

With Seattle's current lineup it is hard to envision the average run totals going up that much. Sure, Ackley will hit, Smoak will likely become better than a .254 hitter, but not by much.

Halman is a complete mystery to project.

Franklin Gutierrez hasn’t shown he can be relied upon, and add to that Ichiro Suzuki's recent struggles and lack of assurances he would even be here in a few years.

The Mariners have more good hitters in the minors, but none to the caliber of Ackley and Smoak. It is hard to rely on any of them developing into good hitters in the majors.

With the second-overall pick in the 2011 MLB Draft, GM Jack Zduriencik decided to go with pitcher Danny Hultzen. A top-three rotation of Felix Hernandez/Pineda/Hultzen in a few years could be pretty formidable. Throw in prospects such as Taijuan Walker and James Paxton—who have each gotten off to solid starts—and this rotation could be really nice.

But even with five great pitchers, the odds of winning enough games to make it to the World Series is low when you score fewer than four runs a game. Zduriencik has to get some protection in that lineup for Smoak or risk leaving a lot potential untapped.

I know many people will immediately rebuke the idea of trading Hernandez—I almost don’t even want to say it—but without another big trade, like what happened to get Smoak, I don’t see the Mariners playing meaningful baseball into September and October.

A rotation of Pineda/Hultzen/Walker/Paxton can survive better than a lineup of Ichiro, Ackley, Mike Carp (DH), Smoak, Halman (LF), Miguel Olivo, Gutierrez, Brendan Ryan and Chone Figgins.

I avoided prospects like Carlos Truinfel, Nick Franklin, and others for a reason because it's hard to think of them as Major League starters when most of them haven’t played a full season in AAA.

Being three years into Zduriencik’s rebuild limits the amount of time he has left to actually start competing. And there just isn’t enough top-prospect caliber players coming soon enough to help with this group of players.

They will need to look outside the organization to get this offense to competitive status, and dipping into free agency can be a huge gamble—look at Figgins. Zduriencik went out and got him to play for Seattle and it hasn’t worked out well. Now we are stuck with him through 2013.

How huge a setback would it be to sign a player like Prince Fielder for five years to come here and DH for $20 million a year, and he comes and hits .240 with 35 HR? Many wouldn’t complain with that.

What happens in year two when he is hitting .210 and has 10 HR? You can’t cut him—you still owe him $60 million on a bad deal.

The Mariners just don't have the payroll to make a mistake like this. 

The best way to build this team is through prospects you don’t have to pay much to if they fail.They have to keep doing it the way they have been, and that’s through acquiring young talented players to build around.

That is why the Mariners will ultimately trade Felix Hernandez.

They simply need more hitters.