NBA Preview: Southwest Division

1. San Antonio Spurs (55-27)

Some people hesitate to call San Antonio a dynasty. Call 'em what you want, but you can't argue that the Spurs have been the overall best team in the NBA over the last 10 years. They have more titles, wins, and more playoff berths than any other team.

The Spurs bi-annual title isn't going to be out of reach this year. When the Lakers beat the Spurs in the conference championship last year, a good majority of basketball fans wrote this team off, saying they're too old to get back to the Finals.

Tony Parker is 26, Manu Ginobili is 31, and Tim Duncan is 32. Last time I checked, Kevin Garnett was 32, Paul Pierce is 31, Ray Allen is 33. The nucleus of the Spurs is actually younger than that of the Celtics, who won the title last year.

Never count out Greg Popovich, and never count out Duncan. I think the Spurs still have probably two more title runs in them. 

I think teams like the Hornets and Rockets have a chance to challenge the Spurs in the Southwest. Hell, the Hornets won it last year. However, they also lost to the Spurs in the playoffs. That's where the Spurs have more experience than most teams in the league.

 

2. New Orleans Hornets (54-28)

This team is only going to get better each year. Chris Paul became a premier point guard last year, and missed hoisting the MVP hardware narrowly. 

The Hornets made their first trip to the playoffs since moving to New Orleans. Head Coach Byron Scott has been great, and this team will gain experience throughout this season and into the playoffs.

Picking up James Posey is a move the Hornets won't regret. He's been a sixth man type of player off the bench of championship teams (i.e. Heat in 2005, and Celtics in 2008). Posey, Peja Stojakovich, and Mo Peterson will make this team deadly from the perimeter.

New Orleans shouldn't be left out of title talk this season, but I think it's a little more realistic  a few years down the road. Chris Paul can penetrate better than anybody in the league, and Chandler is an amazing shot blocker and rebounder. This Hornets team is special now, but looking in the future, they'll be amazing. 

 

3. Houston Rockets (54-28)

The interesting thing about the Southwest division is that the top three teams shouldn't be more than four games apart. If you ask me, San Antonio, New Orleans, and Houston all have a great shot at the division crown.

Last year I chose the Rockets to win the Western Conference. Yeah, they had a huge run last season, but I would be surprised to see Houston exceed last season's 55 wins. It's not that the Rockets have gotten worse, it's that the conference has gotten better.

I'm picking the Rockets to win 54 games, and that all depends on a few things. First of all, the health of both Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady are essential. They did go on their 20-something game winning streak without Yao, so I still think they can compete without one of these two stars, but it will be tough. 

Houston's success also relies on the productivity of Ron Artest. Who knows what he'll turn out to be in Rockets duds, but I'm pretty skeptical. As I said on September 26: Artest is a team killer. 

Maybe Artest has changed, maybe the two superstars will stay healthy, and maybe the Rockets will win this division. For now, I'll play it safe and give 'em 54.

 

4. Dallas Mavericks (50-32)

Avery Johnson is out, and Rick Carlisle is in. While I like Carlisle, and he did a good job in Indiana, I can't see the Mavs getting much better than they were last year. 

The jury is still out on the Jason Kidd trade. Kidd and his teammates didn't really mesh last year, and Dallas exited the playoffs early for the second year in a row. However, Dirk Nowitzki and Kidd probably spent a lot of time working together in the pre-season, and they should look better this year than they did last year.

The reason I dislike the Kidd trade is that the future at the point guard position is now playing in New Jersey. Devin Harris could be a star. It would be disappointing if they traded him for Kidd, who is aging and might call it quits sometime soon.

Let's face it. The Mavs are on the decline, and teams like the Blazers, Grizzlies, and Timberwolves will be taking up playoff spots before we know it. Dallas needs Dirk to be in MVP-form like he was in 2006, which might be a stretch.

I don't think a playoff spot is a guarantee for the Mavericks this season. On the other hand, I still think this team has another 50-ish win season or two in them. 

 

5. Memphis Grizzlies (26-56)

The Grizzlies are full of raw talent. Rudy Gay is a leader, while Mike Conley, O.J. Mayo, and Marc Gasol look like future stars. 

Don't expect the Grizzlies to have too many more lame-duck years, because I see this team back at .500 if not better. Perhaps Marc Iavaroni isn't going to be the Head Coach when Memphis makes it back to the playoffs, but they will be there at some time in the relatively near future.

I really like the O.J. Mayo trade. It brings in a superstar, and in the long-run, I see the Grizzlies getting the better end of the deal. Mike Miller was a good player, but Memphis is rebuilding around Rudy Gay, and now Mayo.

I don't see Kevin Love having the same impact on a team that Mayo will have, and I think Mayo is a little more NBA-ready.

As for now, Memphis will be the game that people plan on going to just to see their team win. Memphis will lose a lot, but like their conference foes the Oklahoma City Thunder, they'll be getting better, and closer to being a contender every night.