NBA Draft 2011: Odds for Lottery Teams To Make Playoffs with Right Prospect Pick
The 2011 NBA draft is just over a week away, and everyone is getting geared up for the last exciting thing that will be happening in the NBA for at least the next four months—possibly more if we see a lockout ooze over into the season.
This year's draft has been criticized for being one of the weaker ones in recent memory, but to that I say who are we to judge until they actually play the game in the NBA? Everyone all but crowned the Miami Heat before the NBA Finals started, and three games in they were engraving their name on the O'Brien Trophy, but you can't know the final outcome until games are actually played.
Kyrie Irving is looking like the player with the most potential in the draft, but Derrick Williams is a close second and Enes Kanter and a few other players are a complete mystery at this point.
There doesn't seem to be a player that is going to turn around a team this year, but there are a few teams out there that could get back to the playoffs with the addition of a role player or borderline starter.
So how likely is it that each lottery team make the playoffs with the right pick? That's what I'm here to tell you guys.
Cleveland Cavaliers, 19 Percent
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The Cleveland Cavaliers are a long way off. Even with two picks in this year's first round (possibly three if they get their way) it's quite unlikely that they will be in the playoffs next April.
The best shot they would have would be trading for the Timberwolves pick at No. 2 and take Derrick Williams there, along with Kyrie Irving No. 1, but they would also have a decent shot with Irving at No. 1 and Enes Kanter at No. 4, depending on what he can add to the team.
The problem is that Cleveland will likely be trading away two to three of their best players from last season, as Ramon Sessions is likely on the move, Anderson Varejao's value is still very high and teams would likely want a shot at trading for him and Antawn Jamison has a large expiring contract that Cleveland may be willing to ship.
With that much movement going on, it's going to be nearly impossible for them to get into a good enough groove to make the playoffs.
Minnesota Timberwolves, 30 Percent
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It would be logical to me for Minnesota to take Derrick Williams No. 2, as he is the second-best player available, but they could take a shot at Enes Kanter.
Williams is a similar player to Michael Beasley, but he has the potential to surpass him, so they could try to send him away or put Williams in at the 4-spot.
The problem is, however, that one guy isn't going to do enough to change, but with that Rubio guy coming in that people seem to be talking about, anything is possible.
I would say Enes Kanter would help them more immediately, but Derrick Williams has more potential right now, so he would be the safer pick.
If everything takes perfectly, if Rubio transitions to the NBA game and Williams doesn't hit a big learning gap (which is entirely possible), then they could make a playoff run, but it will take at least 45 wins in the West, which seems unlikely if you ask me.
Utah Jazz, 44 Percent
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Utah is the second team with two lottery picks in this draft, and with Kevin O'Connor gushing about Brandon Knight all throughout the season, it's likely that they will take him and then nab a 2-guard like Alec Burks or Klay Thompson later in the draft.
They would then have a brand new backcourt with Knight and the 2-guard they pick later. Then they would have room to move Devin Harris, who still has some value throughout the league and could give them some improvement at another position.
Utah could put it together on the fly depending on who they re-sign this offseason and what happens with Al Jefferson and how well Derrick Favors and Paul Millsap continue to improve.
Toronto Raptors, 11 Percent
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The Toronto Raptors are pretty far off from the playoffs, and with Andrea Bargnani currently their best player, you can't expect too much out of them in the win column.
Kemba Walker could do two things for them. First, he could give them a future where their best player could potentially be a guy who is a natural-born leader and a hard-working man, rather than a guy who almost refuses to rebound the ball, despite being seven-feet tall. Second, he could give them a guy that could make some impact right away.
I'm convinced that Walker could be starting for them by December, giving them room to trade Jose Calderon who is still quite a good player, but I don't think they have much chance of winning the 38 or so games that would be necessary for them to make the playoffs in the East.
Washington Wizards, 34 Percent
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Washington is a very young team, and they have the ability to break out at any time.
The only player in their starting lineup that I would absolutely not want on my team is Andray Blatche, who needs to learn to play more for the team, not for individual accolades.
Jan Vesely could come in and compete for the starting small forward spot, as they aren't particularly talented at the 3-spot.
John Wall, Nick Young, Jordan Crawford and JaVale McGee are all looking to have breakout years. Adding Vesely would give them another young, athletic player to integrate, plus they have Rashard Lewis and Josh Howard who could come back to half the players they used to be and help the team out.
They have the potential to make the playoffs; they just need to have a little bit of luck on their side.
Sacramento Kings, 29 Percent
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There is no doubt that the Sacramento Kings have a lot of young talent; they just have a lot of young talent with a lot of young man problems.
Tyreke Evans is a borderline head case, DeMarcus Cousins is fine one day and downright crazy the next and without a center returning next year they have very little likelihood of making the playoffs unless they draft a center and he works out.
Jonas Valanciunas could come in and play center for them right away, and he could probably do a halfway-decent job of it, but they'll need the rest of their team to get on the same page for them to even sniff the playoffs.
Detroit Pistons, 2 Percent
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Detroit is a team that is completely in shambles, and they seem to be in worse shape for the future than the worst teams in the league, despite the fact that they can win around 30 games this year.
They have too much money going to veteran players who come off the bench and their young players show the ability to get moderately better at best.
So, with all of that going on, it's kind of hard to expect one guy coming in at the eighth pick in this draft and turn them into a playoff team.
I'll throw a beer in Ron Artest's face if they make the playoffs.
Charlotte Bobcats, 6 Percent
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Like the Detroit Pistons, Charlotte has the ability to win 30 or so games, but they aren't going to get much higher than that—especially after trading away their best player at the trade deadline.
Michael Jordan realized that the team he had on the court had a very low ceiling, which is why he decided to rebuild after making the playoffs for the first time in the team's history.
They should grab a player who has a lot of potential, but not necessarily the skills to make a huge impact right away like Tristan Thompson, who needs to fill out his frame and learn some more low post moves before he can be a huge impact player.
They won't be making the playoffs this year, no matter who they draft.
Milwaukee Bucks, 42 Percent
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Milwaukee may not need to draft anybody to make it to the playoffs if they can get their act together and play like it was the second half of the 2009-2010 season, and not like they did last year.
If they can turn back the clock a bit, which they should be able to do considering they are a relatively young team, then they should be able to make it to the playoffs.
It is for that reason that I think they should draft a guy with potential that is a bit of a reach like Bismack Biyombo, who could spend a year or so in Europe before he comes over to the states, or could come over and learn behind Andrew Bogut, one of the best shot-blockers in the league.
Golden State Warriors, 36 Percent
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The biggest thing that is going to determine if the Warriors make the playoffs is what they end up doing with Monta Eillis, who is almost definitely on the move this summer.
I have the biggest feeling that Mark Jackson is going to be a good coach, so I'm not that concerned about that, but they should aim to get someone who could change the mindset of the team and make them play some real defense, like Andre Iguodala.
If they were to take Alec Burks, they would have someone who can hold his own on offense and could be a very fine defensive player.
Phoenix Suns, 27 Percent
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The Phoenix Suns are another team that really need a change of style of play in order to turn their team around; they need to start playing more defense.
Chris Singleton may be a bit of a reach as a lottery pick, but his draft stock is constantly rising and he is the best pure defender in this draft.
Singleton could give them a basis on which to build their future, or he could just give them a Tony Allen-type player who is one of the best defenders in the league and just good enough on offense to justify having a starting spot.
However, if they trade away Steve Nash there is no way they get to the playoffs this year; they have a better chance of getting the No. 1 pick in next year's draft.
Houston Rockets, 52 Percent
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The Houston Rockets are in need of a true center. Chuck Hayes can get the job done, but there is only so much a 6'9" guy can do against seven-footers.
Hayes will probably start for them again this year, but picking up Donatas Motieunas would give them a seven-footer that could end up being their starter in the next few years.
Motieunas probably won't do too much to make them a better team this year, but he could add a win or two at the very best, which may be just enough for this scrappy young team hell-bent on making the playoffs.
