UFC 131 Fight Card: Bleacher Report MMA Staff Predictions

UFC 131 has a hard-hitting main event in store for everyone, as Shane Carwin takes on Junior dos Santos in a title eliminator fight. 

The winner gets a shot at reigning UFC heavyweight champion in either October or November, accord to a recent statement by UFC president Dana White.

A classic grappling match pitting the jiu jitsu master Demian Maia against the former Oklahoma State National champion wrestler Mark Munoz.

Will Maia’s submission game be able to overcome “The Filipino Wrecking Machine’s” heavy ground and pound and top control?

In a fight that could be a show stealer, former WEC lightweight champion Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone steps in the Octagon against relatively unknown Vagner Rocha. 

Rocha should not be taken lightly though, as his jiu jitsu accomplishments are world class.

Also on the card, Kenny Florian will be making his debut at 145 against highly touted prospect Diego Nunes, and in a heavyweight battle, Jon Olav Einemo will be taking on Dave Herman.

Returning from last time to predict the fight are Dana Becker (2-5), Jordy Nelson (1-5), and me, John Heinis (3-5). The numbers in parenthesis indicate how we fared on predictions for the main card on “The Ultimate Fighter” finale last week.

Joining the B/R MMA prediction team for the first time, are event graphic artist extraordinaire (and MMA featured columnist) Nick Caron, and a fresh face to the community, Jeffrey McKinney.

Take a look and see who we think the winners will be at UFC 131. 

Jon Olav Einemo (6-1) vs. Dave Herman (20-2)

John Heinis: Einemo was set to verse Shane Carwin prior to Brock Lesnar battling diverticulitis for the second time. 

While everyone expected Einemo to get slaughtered in that fight, he may not fair much better in this bout. 

Einemo is 35 years old, has not fought since November of 2006, and while his jiu jitsu is quite impressive, he has no other weapons in his arsenal.

Herman has not gotten his wins against anyone noteworthy (besides Don Frye, but he was way past his prime even in 2009), 19 of his 20 wins have been finishes.

14 of those came via knockout, so expect the heavy hands of the young prospect to leave Einemo mulling over retirement after a four and a half year layoff.

Herman via second-round KO

Dana Becker: Quite a different fight for Jon Olav Einemo this weekend, as the UFC newcomer was slated to fight Shane Carwin before Carwin was inserted to the main event in place of Brock Lesnar.

Now, the Norwegian gets Dave Herman, who is also making his debut for the UFC.

This has the feeling of a fight that is not going to go long, so don't plan any breaks to get food, drink or hit up the restroom.

Einemo (6-1) has not fought since 2006, a year in which he suffered his first and only career lost to Fabricio Werdum. The 6'6" monster won the ADCC Submission Wrestling World Championship in 2003, and is the only man to defeat Roger Gracie in the Abu Dhabi Combat Club tournament.

But, his lack of in-cage fighting will be a problem against Herman (20-2) and his 14 career knockout wins. And Herman is also very efficient with his own submission game, earning five victories with various holds.

The 26-year-old is on his third different opponent for this card, as he was originally slated to meet Rob Broughton. Joey Beltran replaced Broughton late in March before Einemo was finally penciled in as the opponent.

Herman via first round technical knockout

Nick Caron: UFC fans will be exposed to two fighters making their debuts for the promotion in this heavyweight bout.

Jon Olav Einemo was originally scheduled to fight Shane Carwin at this same event, but when Brock Lesnar dropped out of the fight, Carwin was promoted to the main event. Nevertheless, the 35 year old Norwegian stayed on the pay-per-view card, just with a new opponent.

Einemo is truly one of the elite heavyweight submission experts in the world, having won the ADCC Submission Wrestling World Championship in 2003. He is the only man to have ever defeated the legendary (now Strikeforce fighter) Roger Gracie in the Abu Dhabi Combat Club tournament.

Dave Herman is an EliteXC and Bellator veteran, but this will be the biggest fight of his career. He is a definite contrast in style from Einemo as he has finished 16 opponents by way of knockout or submission due to punches.

What may be most interesting about this fight is that Herman made his MMA debut in December 2006—one month after Einemo’s last mixed martial arts fight.

Predicting this one is difficult because we just don’t know how much Einemo’s overall game has developed in the past half-decade, but if we’re going based on what we know, one would have to assume that Herman is the favorite to win this one just based on the fact that he has been competing regularly in MMA.

Dave Herman by TKO in Round 2

Jordy McElroy: This is an intriguing bout for hardcore fans. Dave Herman is a respected heavyweight with a vast amount of worldwide experience.

It's great to finally see him get the opportunity to compete on the big show. The same goes for Jon Olav Einemo, a former 2003 ADCC Champion. When Einemo last competed, George Bush was still in office.

It's asking a lot to be away from the sport for that long and come back to compete at a higher level than when you left. Herman will be huge in his debut as he crushes Einemo and picks up the first round TKO.

Herman by first round TKO

Jeffry McKinney: Einemo 6-1, is a great BJJ practitioner who is the only man to defeat Roger Gracie in the Abu Dhabi Combat Championships.

Einemo was originally matched up against Shane Carwin but now has a new opponent in Herman.

Although his opponent Dave Herman has not faced top competition just yet, he has fought more recently and has a 20-2 record.

Herman has pretty good hands and some submissions up his sleeve as well. He also has a wrestling background.

Although Einemo has trained with great strikers like Strikeforce heavyweight champion Alistair Overeem, he has not fought a pro fight since 2006.

Because of this I believe Herman can win by TKO in the first or second round.

Herman by TKO

Donald Cerrone (14-3-0(1)) vs. Vagner Rocha (6-1)

John Heinis: Cerrone is a notorious fan favorite in the MMA community, and while he came debuted as a highly touted Muay Thai specialist, 12 of his 14 wins have come by submission.

Cowboy may have met his match on the ground though, as Rocha has Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu credentials for days, with his most impressive feat being placing third at the Abu Dhabi World Pros in both his weight class and the absolute limit (no weight restrictions).

Hardcore fans may recall Rocha from his fights in Bellator and Strikeforce, and despite living in obscurity, sounds awfully confident coming into this fight.

The only person to embarrass Cerrone in his career was Ben Henderson, the man who took away his WEC lightweight title in 2009. 

“Smooth” made short work of Cerrone in their 2010 rematch, finishing him with a guillotine in the first round.

The point is, Cerrone can hang with most in the division that don’t possess Henderson’s grappling ability.

Rocha will put up a fight, but Cerrone finds a way to grind out a victory.

Cerrone via unanimous decision

Dana Becker: This is a very interesting fight for the 'Cowboy,' as he takes on a man not many know about.

Cerrone (14-3) has not lost since dropping the WEC title to Ben Henderson in 2010, reeling off three straight victories, two of which have come by submission (both of which earned him Fight of the Night honors).

But, the favored Cerrone will have to be on top of his game to fend off Rocha (6-1), who is making his UFC debut.

Rocha is replacing Mac Danzig for this fight, and the jiu-jitsu teacher knows this is an excellent opportunity to make a name for himself at the expense of Cerrone.

As long as Cerrone can remain focused and not look past Rocha, I don't think he will have much trouble putting together another impressive performance and moving his way up the ladder.

Cerrone via first round submission (rear naked choke)

Nick Caron: Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone makes his second UFC appearance as he faces promotional newcomer Vagner Rocha at UFC 131.

Cerrone is 14-3-1 in his MMA career with his only losses coming against former WEC lightweight champions Ben Henderson (twice) and Jamie Varner. His very entertaining style helped him earn five Fight of the Night bonuses in the WEC in just 10 fights. He also won the Fight of the Night bonus in his UFC debut in February at UFC 126 when he submitted Paul Kelly.

Vagner Rocha is unknown to many UFC fans, but has competed in both Strikeforce and Bellator. He is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt who will be replacing an injured Mac Danzig.

Both of these fighters have won most of their fights by submission by bringing opponents with inferior Jiu-Jitsu to the ground.

But in this fight, given that both men are very good on the ground, I expect this bout to stay on the feet for the most part. If that ends up being the case, look for Donald Cerrone, a Muay Thai kickboxing expert, to win the striking game and frustrate the Brazilian on his way to a decision victory.

Donald Cerrone by decision

Jordy McElroy: The bout between Sam Stout and Yves Edwards would’ve fit nicely in this slot.

Rocha is an accomplished BJJ practitioner, but none of that matters if you can’t get the fight to the ground.

Cerrone is well-rounded enough to stay out of danger and pick Rocha apart on the feet.

Fans don’t normally "hee-haw" in Canada, but they could change their minds after they witness the three round lashing "Cowboy" puts on Rocha.

Donald Cerrone by unanimous decision

Jeffrey McKinney: Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone is known for 3 things: Having great fights, making guys tap, and wearing cowboy hats every chance he gets.

When your opponent is 12 of your 14 wins are submissions, you have to be cautious of anything on the ground.

Rocha has fought in both Bellator and Strikeforce. He is taking on a huge challenge in his UFC debut  but fighting Cerrone.

Rocha , who is 6-1, is a BJJ black belt.  But I don’t believe he is in the same class as Cerrone.

I think this is just a test to see if Cerrone can force a BJJ black belt to tap. Whether he makes Rocha tap or not I expect him to win.

Look for Cerrone to win by submission or decision, and get one step closer to being back in title contention.

Cerrone by unanimous decision or submission 

Kenny Florian (14-5) vs. Diego Nunes (16-1)

John Heinis: I’m basically astonished that people think Nunes will be able to hang with Florian on the ground.  Florian is a second degree black belt in BJJ, while Nunes is a purple belt.

It’s like night and day as far as I’m concerned.  The only way I could see Nunes getting the advantage on the ground was if Florian was completely sucked out at 145.

That won’t be the case, because Florian is too smart to make a mistake like that.  Nevertheless, Nunes is still a very legitimate test for “KenFlo.”

“The Gun” is coming off of an impressive showing at UFC 125, beating Mike Brown by split decision.

Brown holds two wins over Urijah Faber, so he is clearly no joke in the featherweight division.

Neither fighter has great knockout power nor wrestling on their feet, so we could see some interesting exchanges there. 

In the end, I expect Florian to edge out a close one…and then get pummeled by Jose Aldo.

Kenny Florian via Split Decision

Dana Becker: The former lightweight  No. 1 contender, Kenny Florian, makes his debut in a fourth different weight class when he meets Diego Nunes in what should be an exciting contest from the opening bell.

Florian (14-5) is coming off a 2-2 mark in his past four fights, but, with a win, could be the next challenge to Jose Aldo's belt. Florian dropped his last bout to Gray Maynard in a lightweight title eliminator contest.

But, between the Maynard decision defeat and a submission loss to B.J. Penn, the Ultimate Fighter finalist showed just how powerful he can be with victories against Takanori Gomi and Clay Guida by rear-naked choke.

Nunes (16-1) is a very unknown fighter to most, as he earned a split decision win over former WEC champion Mike Brown in January at UFC 125.

Six of Nunes' wins have come by submission, with another five being claimed by knockout. The Team Nogueria fighters lone setback was to LC Davis in 2009.

This is a fight that is very important to Florian, as he is trying to put himself in line for a shot at his first championship gold at 35 years old. His experience in big fights will be important, as 'KenFlo' has shown his tendency to wilt under the lights on a few occasions.

Florian via unanimous decision

Nick Caron: As perhaps the best fighter in the UFC to have never held a title in the organization, Kenny Florian will be making his debut in what is now his fourth weight class. Originally brought in as a middleweight on the first season of The Ultimate Fighter, Florian quickly realized that his small frame made him an easy target to be held on the ground by bigger fighters and dropped down to welterweight.

He moved down to welterweight where he defeated both Alex Karalexis and Kit Cope before the UFC re-opened their lightweight division. A successful run in the division saw some big wins, but frustrating losses when he was fighting for the title. Now with the UFC having opened up the featherweight division, Florian may have found a weight class that he can make one final run at a championship.

Standing in his way, though, will be the 16-1 Diego Nunes who successfully made his UFC debut by upsetting former WEC featherweight champion Mike Brown at UFC 125 by split decision. His fighting style is very balanced as he possesses essentially equal knockout, submission and decision victories throughout his career.

Though his win over Brown was huge, a victory over “K Flo” could really put “The Gun” on the map for the more casual fans.

Florian has said that this was the most difficult weight cut of his career which could very well mean that he comes into the fight with a depleted body. That said, until we see him fight at the weight, we have to assume that he will be his usual self. In 14 career victories, Florian has only won one fight by decision and will certainly be looking to finish yet another fight.

Kenny Florian by TKO, Round 3

Jordy McElroy: If Kenny Florian thought he could solve his wrestling woes by dropping weight classes, he could be in for a shock. The featherweight division has strong wrestlers with the ability to implement a suffocating top game, but luckily for Florian, Diego Nunes isn’t one of those fighters.

Nunes is definitely a competent grappler, but he shouldn’t pose much of threat to Florian in the wrestling department.

This should make for an entertaining bout, and it could easily walk away with honors for fight of the night. While both fighters boast solid Muay Thai skills, Florian is the more refined striker.

Look for him to avoid a multitude of spinning back kicks and best the standup exchanges for the unanimous decision.

Kenny Florian by decision

Jeffrey McKinney: Kenny Florian will become the first man to fight in four different weight divisions in the UFC.

You have to wonder how the weight cut is going to affect the 14-5 Massachusetts native.

Deigo Nunes, 16-1, is looking to continue his impressive run. In his first 10 fights Nunes finished people by submission or knock out.

Since fighting under Zuffa, Nunes has been 6-1, with each fight going to decision.

Nunes can be a dangerous fighter. But I believe Florian is looking to make a statement and prove he can be a serious threat for Jose Aldo.

It may be a close fight but I see Florian winning by decision.

Kenny Florian by decision

Demian Maia (14-2) vs. Mark Munoz (10-2)

John Heinis: This one has huge implications for the middleweight division; there are already whispers that the winner here will face Brian Stann in a title eliminator. 

Whether or not that happens, the winner is easily a top five contender at 185. 

Munoz was carrying a little too much bulk at 205, as his lack of speed allowed Matt Hamill to easily knock him out.

He has looked great at middleweight though, going 5-1 with the only loss being a razor close split decision against current number one contender Yushin Okami. 

Maia’s submission game is incredible, but has never been considered a serious contender due to an unimpressive striking game. 

As odd as the title fight between Maia and Anderson Silva was, there was no question that Silva looked like a skill level above Maia. 

While he has improved greatly on his feet, Munoz is worlds ahead of Maia in terms of boxing, and has some of the most brutal ground and pound in the business.

I like Munoz, who is shockingly not a consensus top 10 middleweight yet, to pull of the upset.

Mark Munoz via unanimous decision

Dana Becker: What a great middleweight battle we have here, as the former No. 1 contender Demian Maia takes on rising prospect Mark Munoz.

Maia (14-2) has reeled off a pair of unanimous decision victories since falling to Anderson Silva in a title fight in 2010, but he has been unable to really impress in either fight.

With submission victories over Chael Sonnen, Nate Quarry, Jason MacDonald and Ed Herman on his resume, many fans have come to expect just that out of Maia each time he steps inside the cage.

Munoz (10-2) has yet to taste defeat by way of submission, so this might be another problem for Maia. The former NCAA wrestling champion while at Oklahoma State University scored a first-round knockout victory over C.B. Dollaway earlier this year.

For Munoz, this fight presents his greatest challenge since entering the UFC. And, at the same time, an excellent opportunity to push himself into the Top-10 of rated fighters with a victory.

The ability for Munoz to control Maia on the ground will be key, as he must be able to avoid getting caught in the guard of Maia and work constant ground-and-pound.

Munoz via unanimous decision

Nick Caron: Perhaps the most interesting stylistic matchup on this entire card features former NCAA Division I National Champion wrestler Mark Munoz as he squares off against the man with perhaps the best Jiu-Jitsu skills in MMA, Demian Maia.

Maia has practically mowed through the UFC middleweight division with the exception of his bouts with champion Anderson Silva and perennial top contender Nate Marquardt. Though he is primarily known for his submissions, Maia showed a much improved standup game in his most recent bout with Kendall Grove, which he won relatively easily by unanimous decision.

But Mark Munoz is a much better fighter on the feet than is Kendall Grove. Though he doesn’t necessarily have the most technical skills there, he possesses some big-time power and that has to be a concern for Maia in this fight.

This fight will very likely end up on the ground where it will be a traditional wrestling vs. Jiu-Jitsu challenge with two of the very best at their respective craft. If this was a five round fight, I might be giving Demian Maia a better chance to secure a submission. Unfortunately, given that it only three rounds, I am expecting Munoz to frustrate Maia and surprise many experts as he wins a tightly contested judges’ decision. 

Mark Munoz by decision

Jordy McElroy: The old cliché of "styles make fights" definitely comes into play when breaking down this bout. Munoz is without a doubt the better wrestler of the two, but don’t expect many takedown attempts.

Unless he’s suicidal, I seriously doubt Munoz wants to test Maia’s guard.

It won’t be the most entertaining fight on the card, but Munoz should be able to avoid the ground and do enough on the feet to net a close decision.

Mark Munoz by decision

Jeffrey McKinney: Styles make match ups, and in this one we will see a submission expert in Maia take on a good wrestler in Munoz.

Munoz has looked great since he dropped to 185. His only loss at this weight class was a close bout with No. 1 contender Yushin Okami.

Maia on the other hand has won his last two fights, both by decision.

Both fighters are willing to stand with the other, but for how long?

I give the boxing advantage to the heavy handed Munoz.

If Maia gets hit hard enough he’ll be looking to take the fight to the ground.

The only problem is can he get the takedown?  I don’t think he can, which is why Munoz will win by decision and continue his run at 185.

Mark Munoz by decision

No. 1 Contender Fight: Junior Dos Santos vs. Shane Carwin

John Heinis: Both these guys have bricks for hands, so it seems to be a consensus pick to say that this one is not going to last for fifteen minutes.

I did a head-to-toe breakdown of this fight earlier in the week, and there seems to be no question that the X factor here could be what wins out between Carwin’s wrestling and dos Santos’ jiu jitsu.

The answer, I believe, is that they will neutralize each other.  Carwin will get some takedowns, but “Cignano” will be able to get back to his feet in a timely fashion.

Despite the recent diet change and weight cut for Carwin, dos Santos is known for having great cardio for a big man. 

Junior is also the more technical boxer, as a lot of Carwin’s game relies on brute strength, not to say that his game is devoid of technique though.

I like dos Santos to end this one in the mid to late second round as Carwin looks like he needs an oxygen tank to survive.

Junior dos Santos via second round TKO

Dana Becker: It doesn't always happen, but, in this instance, I believe the UFC got lucky with Brock Lesnar's unfortunate injury.

While a Junior dos Santos-Lesnar matchup would have been interesting, the insertion of Shane Carwin into this fight leads me to believe we will see some explosive fireworks Saturday night that can rival the bright lights of Las Vegas in Vancouver.

After his stint as coach of The Ultimate Fighter, dos Santos (12-1) is more widely-known around MMA fans as a fighter that takes his job seriously, but also knows how to enjoy life.

Since entering the UFC, dos Santos is undefeated, claiming victories over the likes of Roy Nelson, Gabriel Gonzaga, Gilbert Yvel, Mirko 'Cro Cop' Filipovic and Fabricio Werdum.

The Team Nogueira fighter has eight knockout wins on his resume and three more by submission, including a pair of Knockout of the Night honors.

Carwin (12-1) is returning him his first career loss, a submission defeat at the hands of Lesnar in 2010. Since that fight, Carwin has undergone surgery on his neck that forced him out of a planned bout with Nelson.

The heavy-handed Carwin, who is in the NCAA Div. II Wrestling Hall of Fame, has been very out-spoken leading up to the contest, as he believes a win over dos Santos puts him in line to reclaim the heavyweight title he briefly held after defeating Frank Mir.

While both fighters have solid ground skills, this will be a fight that is won or loss on the feet, as each feel they have the ability to knock the other one out. Many reports have stated that Carwin is in great shape, but the extended layoff from competing in the cage could be a factor.

Dos Santos via second round technical knockout

Nick Caron: The main event for UFC 131 may be disappointing to fans who were looking to see Brock Lesnar compete, but the new fight between Junior dos Santos and Shane Carwin could actually end up being more entertaining.

As perhaps the two most punch-happy fighters in the division, dos Santos and Carwin could put on a slug-fest for the ages in this one. Both men have won the majority of their fights by knockout and they’ve done it against other good strikers.

There are a couple wild cards in this fight that could very well determine the outcome.

The first is 100-percent on Shane Carwin and that is how much his cardio has improved between this fight and his previous, disappointing loss against Brock Lesnar. After completely gassing in the Lesnar fight, Carwin has changed his training regiment and looks quite a bit more trim coming into this fight. At the time of this writing, we have not seen how much weight he has lost, but the increased effort on diet and cardio could come into play.

The second wild card is the potential battle between Shane Carwin’s wrestling versus Junior dos Santos’ Jiu-Jitsu. We have seen Carwin use his wrestling successfully in the past to inflict some huge damage from the top with his ground-and-pound, but dos Santos’ ground game remains largely a mystery.

We know that he trains with the Nogueira’s and perhaps the world’s top group at Black House, but “Cigano” hasn’t really been tested on his back in a real MMA fight. It will be interesting to see how he handles it if the fight gets there this Saturday night.

Shane Carwin by knockout, Round 1

Jordy McElroy: These two should bring enough power to the octagon to light up an entire city. Since his UFC 116 collapse to Brock Lesnar, Carwin is leaner and 25 pounds lighter, but it still may not be enough to derail dos Santos.

The Brazilian is arguably the best boxer in the heavyweight division, and he sports a granite chin. Carwin lacks the boxing chops and footwork to hang with dos Santos in the open.

 People will be quick to point to Carwin’s dominant wrestling, but outside of shoving off a few telegraphed takedown attempts from Lesnar, we haven’t seen anything.

Dos Santos is simply too athletic and technical for Shane Carwin. Look for a dos Santos hook to sing Carwin his lullaby in the first round.

dos Santos by first round KO

Jeffrey McKinney: Shane Carwin steps in as Brock Lesnar’s replacement to fight Junior dos Santos.The winner is bound to get a shot at Cain Velasquez

This is a tough fight to call. Carwin and dos Santos are two of MMA’s most dangerous strikers meaning someone will go down.

Both Carwin and dos Santos are 12-1. They both also have a highlight reel of KO’s and have never been knocked out.

It is a tough one to call because of this. Carwin claims to have his cardio in check this time around and I can’t wait to see if this holds true.

Despite both fighters being out a long time, Carwin’s absence was due to injury. He may feel the ring rust a little bit more.

Although I think Carwin has the power advantage, I believe dos Santos is more technical and has more speed.

Because of this I give the slight edge dos Santos gets the TKO in the first round. I would not be surprised if it went the other way around though.

dos Santos by first round TKO