AL East: Boston Red Sox, Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees Keys to a 2011 Pennant
In 2006, the Detroit Tigers took the American League Wild Card. This was the first time since 2002, and one of only three times in the whole decade that a non-AL East team took the fourth playoff spot.
The explanation for this is simple: The AL East is the most competitive, and possibly, the outright best division in all of baseball.
Up until 2008, it was a two-horse race, but with the emergence of the Tampa Bay Rays, the division has gone from overbearing to downright dominating.
In a world with only one AL Wild Card team, at least one playoff-worthy team is going to be out in the cold—or should I say at home in the warmth—come playoff time.
As the records stand, the Red Sox are in position to take the AL East crown; the Yankees the wild card yet again. The Rays are happy to sit in drafting position, waiting for their moment to slingshot a la Ricky Bobby and take the division themselves.
Here are three keys for each contending team: one pitching, one hitting and one X-factor. If these things come to fruition, that team will be in prime position to take one of the two spots. If they don't, two of these teams may end up watching come September.
For the purposes of this slideshow, we will pretend the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays do not exist, because for all intents and purposes they don't anyway.
Yankees Pitching: Phil Hughes Needs To Find His Form
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The last time Phil Hughes was seen on the field for the Yankees, he was departing the mound with his head down much like in this picture.
The Yankees hit the lucky team's time warp and received otherworldly contributions from the likes of Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon. This, however, can not continue for the whole season.
If Garcia's 1.2-inning effort against the Red Sox Tuesday was any indication, that can't keep up for much longer at all. Hughes' dead arm is said by many to be all in the 24-year-old right-hander's head. Unfortunately for Phil and the Yankees, the 16 runs and 19 hits allowed in just 10.1 innings are very, very real.
If Hughes (18-8 in 2010) goes the Chein-Ming Wang route (19-7 in 2007) and is never able to return to his 2010 form, CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett will have a very difficult time carrying the Bombers to the playoffs.
Red Sox Pitching: John Lackey Needs to at Live Up to at Least Some of His Hype
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John Lackey came off the DL Monday and threw 5.2 innings allowing three runs while earning his third win of the season.
Lackey's 14-11 2010 record left a lot to be desired. Many in Red Sox Nation wanted to believe this was a fluke year. This may have been wishful thinking. No one wants to admit that the five-year $82 million contract was akin to the Daisuke Matsuzaka flub.
Lackey's gas tank is not yet on "E," and he considers himself a second-half pitcher. With Matsuzaka having pitched what may be his last game in a Red Sox uniform and done for the season, Lackey must return and be at least a .500 starter.
The Red Sox will likely be shopping for a pitcher at the trade deadline, with someone like Jason Marquis getting a few calls. They have gotten their spot contribution out of veteran Tim Wakefield, but it is only a matter of time before his back begins to act up.
Rays Pitching: Jeremy Hellickson, Can He Avoid the Second-Half Rookie Slide?
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It is not uncommon for a rookie pitcher to have a strong first half, and Hellickson at 7-3 with a 2.64 ERA is doing just that.
The issue most rookies run into in the second half, is the workload. Just last year, Phil Hughes—admittedly not in his rookie season, but in his first season as a full-time starter—ran into a similar roadblock, falling off dramatically in the second half.
Hellickson has thrown 72.1 innings on the season, in 2010 Hellickson threw a total of 117 innings for the Durham Bulls, Tampa's triple-A affiliate.
It will be interesting to see how Hellickson holds up if he gets into the 140-plus inning range, or the Rays go late into the playoffs.
David Price and James Shields are both having very strong seasons, but without Hellickson's strong performance, the Rays would be having trouble keeping up with the other two pillars in the division.
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Yankees Hitting: Can Jorge Posada Adjust to His DH/Utility/Backup Catcher Role?
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Jorge Posada asked to be taken out of the lineup last month against the Red Sox, but that is old news. Posada is a class guy, and he has earned the right to have some say about how he is handled. I am not saying he is right to have caused unnecessary drama, but it is not what is going to impact the yankees most going forward.
Posada had been 1-for-14 until going 2-for-4 against The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Monday, and then going 3-for-3 Tuesday against the Red Sox after Mark Teixeira was hit by a pitch and left the game.
While Posada may not be the answer at catcher anymore, he is still a solid backup, but he will need to hit in order to justify his position in the lineup. He is currently hitting a meager .195 with six home runs and 18 RBI.
As the Yankees do not have the solid pitching they would like, they will need to win a lot of games with their offense. With the recent 5-for-7 tick, Posada is showing life, but going forward, the Yankees will need solid production from his bat to avoid sliding out of the AL East race.
Red Sox Hitting: Dustin Pedroia Is Still Struggling in Front of Adrian Gonzalez
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The Boston Red Sox made the surge that most thought them capable of and probably expected them to jump out of the gate with. Surprisingly enough, they have done so without the usually steady bat of Dustin Pedroia.
The former league MVP started out the season with a bang—in fact, he was the only player on the team who really did. Pedroia was hitting .348 with two home runs and six RBI through April 15. The team was 2-10.
As of today, he is hitting a over 100 points less at .247, with just four home runs and 22 RBI. The team is 35-26.
With Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Jacoby Ellsbury and David Ortiz all raking at the same time, it is easy to lose track of the 5'9" Pedroia. It is also scary to think about what the team could do if he was to get going.
Gonzalez currently leads the majors with 53 RBI, if Dustin Pedroia could get on base at anywhere near the clip he has become accustomed to, Gonzalez's year-end RBI totals could be scary.
Rays Hitting: Can Evan Longoria Get Back to His 2008-2010 Numbers?
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The Red Sox have Adrian Gonzalez and David Ortiz. The Yankees have Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira. The Rays have Evan Longoria and Casey Kotchmann? Johnny Damon? Anyone?
In case you didn't notice, the Rays' lineup doesn't exactly have the kind of pop as the rest of their AL East competition. Carlos Peña may have been in the top 10 for strikeouts every year, but he at least provided a little protection for Longoria.
Now, he is exposed and coming off an oblique strain which caused him to miss 26 games earlier this season. He is yet to really catch his stride, maybe due in part to the fact that pitchers no longer have to go after him. His four home runs, 13 RBI and .246 average have me amazed the Rays have been able to do what they have.
Kotchmann, Damon, Matt Joyce and Sam Fuld—in the beginning of the year—have done far more than expected. Those players, combined with the starting pitching and surprisingly strong bullpen, have led to success thus far.
One has to think, however, the Rays will need Longoria hitting at the top of his game if they expect to make a serious run at the division or Wild Card crown.
Yankees X-Factor: Can Joba Chamberlain Shut It Down?
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Joba Chamberlain is not a starter and should never be looked at to do so.
The hefty-hurler has the makings of a shut-down reliever and future closer. I know for yankees fans it seems as if Mariano Rivera will pitch for the rest of his life, but you and I both know that's not true.
Eventually he will retire, and when that happens someone will need to step in. That someone should be Chamberlain, provided the Yankees don't ruin him by throwing him in the starting rotation time and time again.
So far this season, the league has seen a pretty consistent Chamberlain. The Yankees will need that bullpen stability down the stretch if they want to stay viable. With 28.2 innings on the season, he has pitched the most of any non-starter for the Yankees. His numbers are good: 2-0, 2.84 ERA and 24 strikeouts.
The Yankees know what to expect out of Rivera, but it will be the work of David Robertson (38 strikeouts, 1.16 ERA) that decide a lot of close games down the stretch.
Note: I was close to making this Rafael Soriano, but he has not done anything to this point to prove to me he is anything but a bust.
Red Sox X-Factor: Can Jed Lowrie Rectify Fielding Woes and Keep the Hot Bat?
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Now it would be almost too easy to have a Joba "the Hut" and Jed"i" Lowrie showdown here, but I can't resist.
"These aren't the pitches you are looking for," says Lowrie as he waves his hand at Joba.
I'm sorry.
In all seriousness, Jed Lowrie burst on the scene with the kind of bat only Mrs. Lowrie and my second cousin Alberto expected. He was batting close to .500 for a long stretch and even showed some pop. He has a solid swing from both sides of the plate, and his patient approach fits in perfectly with the Red Sox and the rest of the AL East.
Lowrie's batting average has dropped to .292 and his strikeouts began to pile up (35), but part of that was due to a recent slump after a collision with Carl Crawford.
He is currently listed as day-to-day which will give Marco Scutaro a chance to get some playing time, but Lowrie has emerged as the clear bridge to Jose Iglesias in a couple years.
Lowrie's big negative is his subpar defense at shortstop—he has already committed eight errors on the year—which has many wondering if that is his ideal position. Unfortunately for the Red Sox, Dustin Pedroia has a lock on second base, and Kevin Youkilis isn't moving back to first base any time soon.
Most Red Sox fans will take the occasional error to gain the major boost he provides at the plate, and if he can get going again like he did earlier in the season, it will be well worth it.
Note: Lowrie also sports the dual-flap helmet, not a common sight in the Majors.
Rays X-Factor: Can Kyle Farnsworth Continue To Save the Day?
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The mass exodus of the Rays bullpen following the 2010 season—which included quality setup men Joaquin Benoít, Dan Wheeler and Grant Balfour, along with closer Rafael Soriano—had many wondering who was going to lock it down at the end of the game for the Rays.
The answer: journeyman Kyle Farnsworth.
Farnsworth, who had two stints with the Yankees in his career, stepped in. Joe Maddon suggested they might go with the closer-by-committee approach at the start of the season, but with Farnsworth saving 12 of 13 opportunities, no one else has even gotten a chance to blow one.
The fairly eccentric Farnsworth and his glasses are as important as anyone to the Rays pennant chances. This is a team that even during their World Series run, never had a true closer. David Price closed out Game 7 against the Red Sox in 2008, if you need any more proof of that. Soriano's 45 saves last year is a Rays record.
If Farnsworth can continue to be the rock in the ninth, and the Rays find enough ways to get to him, they should be able to stick around and compete for the division. If they don't and fall into their pre-2008 ways of blowing late leads, it could be a long second half.
Note: Remember when Lou Piniella though it would be a good idea to start the game with relievers, and work in the starters?
What Could Be More Exciting?
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The Yankees/Red Sox rivalry has always been heated, and now with the addition of a consistent third team, things could get more interesting than ever.
My predictions for the season have the Red Sox winning, going away, while the Yankees and Rays battle for the wild card down to the wire.
Predictions:
Boston: The team will continue to improve, Pedroia will hit his stride, and they will rake in Fenway Park.
Record: 100-62
New York: Phil Hughes will come back strong after the All-Star break, and the team will make a run, but they will have too much ground to make up.
Record: 93-69 (wild card winner)
Tampa Bay: They will stay consistent for most of the year, Longoria will come on strong in the second half and they will lead the Wild Card for most of the season. Unfortunately, their shaky bullpen will cause them to falter down the stretch and be overtaken by the Yankees.
Record: 91-71
Follow me on Twitter @JeffNowak
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