2011 NFL Predictions: Setting the Odds of Every NFL Rookie Holding Out
Holdouts have become an unfortunate part of negotiating between NFL teams and incoming rookies.
There is a slim chance that the new collective-bargaining agreement will eliminate holdouts by implementing a rookie wage scale, but as of this writing, the NFL lockout is currently in a stalemate and any optimism regarding a wage scale has to be considered dim.
Once the lockout is lifted, and we do believe it will be, each rookie must negotiate through an agent with the team that drafted them, which means holdouts.
Which players are most likely to sit and wait for the perfect deal? We have the odds you can take to Vegas on which rookies will holdout.
32. Derek Sherrod, Offensive Tackle, Green Bay Packers
1 of 32
Chances of a hold out? 0 percent
As the last pick in the first round, there is no incentive for Sherrod to hold out. In fact, it's more likely that he will be the first of the first-rounders to sign an NFL contract. His deal is largely in place based on a general increase over last year's No. 32 pick.
Signing for Sherrod should be a walk in the park.
31. Cameron Heyward, Defensive End, Pittsburgh Steeleers
2 of 32
Chance of a hold out? 0 percent
Cam Heyward has been around the NFL most of his life. His father, Craig, played in the league for 10 years and was himself a first-round pick in the 1988 NFL Draft.
The younger Heyward has too much respect for the NFL and for a high-class organization like the Pittsburgh Steelers to even consider a holdout.
30. Muhammad Wilkerson, DE, New York Jets
3 of 32
Chances of a hold out? 5 percent
Every year, there is one player who holds out that completely surprises everyone. This year it could be Muhammad Wilkerson. And it may not even be his fault.
For rookies to sign, it would mean the NFL lockout has ended, which also means the Jets will be scrambling to sign their own free agents and picking up undrafted players.
All of this activity could push negotiations for Wilkerson's rookie deal closer to the starting point of the season (depending on when that is).
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29. Gabe Carimi, Offensive Tackle, Chicago Bears
4 of 32
Chances of a hold out? 0 percent
The great thing about late first-round picks is that their pay is largely slotted from the previous year's rookie contracts.
The biggest question for Carimi is how the Bears choose to pay him in comparison to his 2010 counterpart, cornerback Kyle Wilson.
The pay for cornerbacks and left tackles is not that different. The pay for cornerbacks and right tackles is quite different, though.
If the Bears see Carimi as a left tackle, this should be an easy deal to do.
28. Mark Ingram, Running Back, New Orleans Saints
5 of 32
Chances of a hold out? 20 percent.
At one time, Emmitt Smith, who was the No. 17 pick overall, sat out all of the preseason and signed with Dallas just five days before the team's first game.
We see the same possibility in Mark Ingram.
Ingram will want to be paid on the same level as the first running back taken in the 2010 draft (C.J. Spiller, No. 9 overall) or at least on par with No. 12 pick Ryan Mathews.
27. Jimmy Smith, Cornerback, Baltimore Ravens
6 of 32
Chance of a hold out? 15 percent
The actual contract for Jimmy Smith should be pretty straightforward.
In the 2010 draft, the Patriots used the No. 27 pick on cornerback Devin McCourty. You would think that the contract would largely be written already using the logic that, from year-to-year, you simply increase the contract by "x" percent.
The unknown factor here is how much of a turd will Jimmy Smith be?
This is a player who was arrested at Colorado and failed a drug test this offseason. Hopefully he has wisened up and will avoid controversy for a long, long time.
26. Jonathan Baldwin, Wide Receiver, Kansas City Chiefs
7 of 32
Chance of a hold out? 25 percent
Looking at the 2010 draft, the Arizona Cardinals selected defensive tackle Dan Williams with pick No. 26. Williams did not sign his rookie deal until August 2.
The Williams contract may not be the best for either party to work off of, and it could spark tough negotiations between Baldwin and Kansas City.
If you are looking for a late first-rounder to hold out, we'll put our money on Baldwin.
25. James Carpenter, Offensive Tackle, Seattle Seahawks
8 of 32
Chance of a hold out? 10 percent
James Carpenter had to be surprised to hear his name called in the first round of the 2011 NFL Draft.
He will also be happy to see so many commas in the salaries displayed on his rookie contract.
Carpenter and his agents will be working off of the Tim Tebow contract, which should offer him a great start to his career.
24. Cameron Jordan, Defensive End, New Orleans Saints
9 of 32
Chance of a hold out? 35 percent
Why the big number for Cam Jordan?
This is a player whose dad played in the NFL and who has been vocal about his views on how current and former NFL players have been treated. That's strike one.
Strike two is that the Saints must negotiate with two first-round picks. Cam Jordan will not sign his contract until Mark Ingram does, as his agents will want to make sure he is paid more.
23. Danny Watkins, Guard, Philadelphia Eagles
10 of 32
Chance of a hold out? 0 percent
In the 2010 NFL Draft, the Green Bay Packers drafted offensive lineman Bryan Bulaga.
In the 2011 NFL Draft, the Eagles chose Danny Watkins.
The two deals should be nearly identical expect for a small increase over the 2010 deal.
22. Anthony Castonzo, Offensive Tackle, Indianapolis Colts
11 of 32
Chance of a hold out? 0 percent
Why can we say with absolute certainty that Anthony Castonzo will not hold out?
At the first hint of a hold out, Manning will call Castonzo and remind him that he was drafted to protect the blindside of perhaps the best quarterback of all-time. That's not something a rookie can mess with.
The Colts have a real chance to win a Super Bowl this season if Castonzo can hit the ground running. And Manning knows this.
21. Phil Taylor, Defensive Tackle, Cleveland Browns
12 of 32
Chance of a hold out? 15 percent
Phil Taylor is a rare nose tackle drafted in the first round. He will be able to ask for more money based on the nature of his position and also as he carries more value than 2010's No. 21 player, tight end Jermaine Gresham.
The Browns are also a young team with a good track record of signing rookies, like Joe Haden and Joe Thomas, in Round 1.
20. Adrian Clayborn, Defensive End, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
13 of 32
Chance of a hold out: 15 percent
As with any draft pick near the top half of the first round, there is a fair chance that Clayborn could hold out before signing his first deal.
The fact the the Buccaneers have negotiated with so many high draft picks gives us faith in their ability to sign the No. 20 pick before he misses any games.
19. Prince Amukamara, Cornerback, New York Giants
14 of 32
Chance of a hold out: 50 percent
Every season, there is one rookie who thinks he should have been drafted much higher and chooses to hold out in an effort to be paid at a higher rate than his draft position.
It never works, but that won't stop Prince Amukamara from trying.
18. Corey Liuget, Defensive Tackle, San Diego Chargers
15 of 32
Chance of a hold out? 40 percent
Corey Liuget seems like a great person, so we do not mean to cast a negative light on him as a person.
Chargers' general manager A.J. Smith, on the other hand, is a stubborn negotiator who will simply shut down talks if he is not getting his way.
Ask Vincent Jackson.
17. Nate Solder, Offensive Tackle, New England Patriots
16 of 32
Chance of a hold out: 10 percent
See slide No. 22.
Much like Anthony Castonzo in Indianapolis, Nate Solder will be urged to sign on time by the 2010 MVP, Tom Brady.
The Patriots are the Vegas favorites to win Super Bowl 46. To do so they need Solder contributing early on.
16. Ryan Kerrigan, Outside Linebacker, Washington Redskins
17 of 32
Chance of a hold out? 0 percent
How can we be so sure that Ryan Kerrigan will not hold out?
Redskins owner Daniel Snyder loves spending money.
It will be hard for Kerrigan or his agents to argue with that logic.
15. Mike Pouncey, Center, Miami Dolphins
18 of 32
Chance of a hold out? 25 percent
Mike Pouncey will be anxious to get his rookie deal done, if only to show brother Maurkice how much more he is making than his twin.
Once you get in to the top 15 picks, there is always a chance that agents and contract negotiators will disagree on the percentage that should be marked up, or that their player should be paid at a higher rate than the player ahead of him.
14. Robert Quinn, Defensive End, St. Louis Rams
19 of 32
Chance of a hold out: 40 percent
Robert Quinn was at one point talked about as a potential No. 1 pick.
That's something his agents will remember.
It's possible the Rams will be able to negotiate a fair market deal for the defensive end, but it is also possible Quinn's agents will ask for top 10 money.
13. Nick Fairley, Defensive Tackle, Detroit Lions
20 of 32
Chance of a hold out: 75 percent
If I were the agent for Nick Fairley, the second defensive tackle drafted, I would copy the contract of 2010's second defensive tackle (Gerald McCoy) and ask the Lions to match it.
The difference? McCoy was the No. 3 overall pick.
Depending on if there is a rookie wage scale or not will heavily affect Fairley's first contract. Without a wage pool, he could hold out for big money.
12. Christian Ponder, Quarterback, Minnesota Vikings
21 of 32
Chance of a hold out: 40 percent
It is always tough to sign a rookie quarterback drafted in the first round.
Ponder will have to compare his deal with 2010's No. 12 pick, a running back, Ryan Mathews.
It will be fair for Ponder's agents to ask for a sizable increase from Mathews deal last year.
11. J.J. Watt, Defensive End, Houston Texans
22 of 32
Chance of a hold out? 50 percent
In 2010, the 49ers drafted offensive tackle Anthony Smith, who was a late-July signee of his rookie deal. While it is normal to not have many first-rounders signed early in July, most deals are done in the middle of the month.
This could cause problems for Houston and Watt.
There is also the issue of his position. Is Watt a defensive end or defensive tackle?
10. Blaine Gabbert, Quarterback, Jacksonville Jaguars
23 of 32
Chance of a hold out? 80 percent
If you've been keeping score at home, Blaine Gabbert is by far the early favorite through the bottom 22 picks of Round 1 to hold out.
Why?
Quarterbacks always ask for more money. The Jaguars are a team with a bad financial situation. They also do not need him in camp right away, as they can start David Garrard and wait for Gabbert to sign.
9. Tyron Smith, Offensive Tackle, Dallas Cowboys
24 of 32
Chance of a hold out: 10 percent
Jerry Jones loves his football players, and he pays them well because of it.
Tyron Smith is a Jones favorite and will have a favorable negotiation with Jerry in signing his rookie deal early on.
8. Jake Locker, Quarterback, Tennessee Titans
25 of 32
Chance of a hold out? 20 percent
When John Elway was drafted by the Baltimore Colts, he threatened to quit football and play baseball, which led to his being traded to the Denver Broncos.
Jake Locker is good enough at baseball to walk back to the diamond, but he won't have to. The Titans need Locker, and they'll open up their checkbooks to prove it.
7. Aldon Smith, Outside Linebacker, San Francisco 49ers
26 of 32
Chance of a hold out? 20 percent
The 49ers are still stinging from Michael Crabtree's 2009 holdout, which lasted until October 7 of that same year.
While new management is in place, the 49ers have to be careful with how they pursue Aldon Smith.
Smith is a young player who will be heavily influenced by his agent. The good news is that Smith shares an agent, Tom Condon, with free-agent quarterback Alex Smith.
6. Julio Jones, Wide Receiver, Atlanta Falcons
27 of 32
Chance of a hold out: 40 percent
The Falcons gave up four draft picks to move up and select wide-out Julio Jones. Owner Arthur Blank will not let Jones miss any time in the Falcons season.
Atlanta is too close to a Super Bowl berth to lose any key player for any length of time.
That doesn't mean the team is out of the woods entirely. The top-five picks are always the hardest to sign and there is a chance Jones will want top-five money.
5. Patrick Peterson, Cornerback, Arizona Cardinals
28 of 32
Chance of a hold out: 30 percent
The Cardinals have an advantage in signing Patrick Peterson.
The 2010 deal they will be mirroring from the No. 5-overall pick was also for a defensive back. Arizona can easily add a predetermined percentage and call it a deal.
The only sticking point will be if the Peterson camp argues that the 2010 pick, Eric Berry, was worth less since he plays safety.
4. A.J. Green, Wide Receiver, Cincinnati Bengals
29 of 32
Chance of a hold out: 75 percent
Would anyone blame A.J. Green if he did not want to play for Mike Brown's Bengals?
I, for one, would not.
The good news is that the Bengals need Green on board if they are going to get rid of Chad Ochocinco and move past Terrell Owens.
We are still talking about the Bengals, though, a team that is traditionally very, very cheap.
3. Marcell Dareus, Defensive Tackle, Buffalo Bills
30 of 32
Chance of a hold out: 25 percent
Marcell Dareus seems like the happiest person in the world now that he is close to being part of an NFL team.
That giddiness expressed by Dareus is the reason we do not see him as a potential holdout.
Playing in Buffalo will not be easy, but the chip on Dareus' shoulder after Carolina and Denver passed on him is sufficiently large.
2. Von Miller, Outside Linebacker, Denver Broncos
31 of 32
Chance of a hold out: 50 percent
There are two schools of thought here.
1. John Elway as a former player will be fair in negotations and get Miller in camp early.
2. Von Miller, as part of the Tom Brady lawsuit against the NFL, will dig his heels in and hold out.
Your guess is as good as mine.
Hence the 50 percent odds.
1. Cam Newton, Quarterback, Carolina Panthers
32 of 32
Chance of a hold out? 99 percent
Can we all agree that Cam Newton, or his father Cecil, will hold out?
Newton's camp will ask for a considerable difference between what Sam Bradford agreed to last year with the Rams. He will also be asking an owner, Jerry Richardson, who has been a key figure in the NFL lockout talks.
Richardson is likely to have little patience for Newton's demands.
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