NFL Power Rankings: Ranking the Warmth of Every NFL Coach's Hot Seat
Professional sports is as high-pressure an environment as you can possibly imagine. The number of NFL head coaches that are fired each year is proof that this is not a job for the faint of heart.
Of the 32 NFL teams, 25 percent will have a new head coach in place for the NFL 2011 season that did not open up the 2010 season as the head coach. That means that there are eight coaches that should have some degree of job security for their first year on the job.
But after that rookie season has come and gone, all bets are off. In fact, some organizations don't even allow the rookie coaches to come back for year two. That is just plain cruel, but that is life in the NFL, or as Jerry Glanville used to say: "The NFL stands for Not For Long."
We are going to look at all of the 32 current head coaches in the NFL and determine how much job security they are currently enjoying.
2010: A Brief Review of the Departed Eight Head Coaches
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The eight head coaches that no longer are employed by the team that had them serving as head coach in 2010 are:
Jeff Fisher, Tennessee Titans
Mike Singletary, San Francisco 49ers
Tom Cable, Oakland Raiders
Josh McDaniels, Denver Broncos
Eric Mangini, Cleveland Browns
Wade Phillips, Dallas Cowboys
Brad Childress, Minnesota Vikings
John Fox, Carolina Panthers (now employed as head coach by Denver Broncos)
Will There Be a 2011 Season for the Head Coaches to Actually Coach?
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While the NFL lockout of the players continues to drone on and on, the actual 2011 NFL season continues to get a little more cloudy with each passing week.
OTAs have already been missed. Unsigned rookie free agents are finding other lines of work to support themselves. Players are getting together in groups around the country waiting for word that they can begin practicing as a team in front of their coaching staffs.
But will there be a 2011 season? What will it look like when it arrives? A full 16-game season, an eight-game modified version or something in between?
This article is written on the premise that there will be a full slate of 16 games to be played in 2011. If in fact the end product turns out to be something substantially less, then it would seem like the owners have too small of a sample size to justify a firing, unless this was a coach that was already on the way out (Tony Sparano comes to mind here).
As it is, it will be very difficult for coaches to be able to get in their full complement of system improvements and plays over a shorter summer training camp. The rookies will have less impact due to less time in practice and less time to get acclimated to the pro game. There are ramifications to all of those issues, depending on the team in question.
32) Bill Belichick
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Bill Belichick, head coach of the New England Patriots, to my way of thinking currently has the highest degree of job security in the NFL.
The Patriots have either finished in first place in the AFC East or tied for first throughout the 1990s. They are a virtual playoff team every year and are a threat to be Super Bowl champions as long as Tom Brady stays healthy.
While other playoff-caliber teams can drop out of the playoffs the following year after winning it all, Belichick finds a way to keep his teams hungry and motivated. He restocks the team each year with his ability to move up and down the draft and continues to excel at that unique skill.
Job security rating: Extremely high
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31) Mike McCarthy
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With two-straight playoff appearances and a Super Bowl championship to his credit, Mike McCarthy is also in a very stable position as head coach of the Green Bay Packers.
The Brett Favre situation is now far behind him. His biggest challenge in 2011 is going to be how to work back all of the players that had to leave on injured reserve and then who to cut from the free agents or reserves that stepped up to play key roles in the Packers' stretch run in the playoffs.
Every coach should have so many problems.
Job security rating: Very high
30) Rex Ryan
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By taking his New York Jets to two consecutive AFC championship games, Rex Ryan has solid job security.
The way that you can start to make that job security less solid is to start making predictions and guarantees that you can't keep. Somebody needs to advise Ryan that he has done very well for himself so far in raising the level of the Jets team to be a serious contender.
If they don't win the Super Bowl this year, how much of his bubble will have burst? How many years in a row will he keep making proclamations before he has lost all credibility with Jets fans and his team?
Job security rating: Very high
29) Sean Payton
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One year removed from a Super Bowl championship, Sean Payton was able to guide his New Orleans Saints back to the playoffs again, but a Wild Card round exit to the likes of the lowly Seattle Seahawks (7-9 regular-season record) must have been a humbling experience.
With the arrival of Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram and Reggie Bush appearing to be still on board, Drew Brees should have enough of a running attack to keep defenses honest and throw the ball to his stable of wide receivers.
With each passing year, the Saints will have to prove that the Super Bowl win was not a fluke, so if they get bounced again in the first round or fail to make the playoffs, it will take some of the shine off this coaching star.
Job security rating: Very high
28) John Harbaugh
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John Harbaugh, head coach of the Baltimore Ravens, has been at the helm for three years. He has been consistent with three second-place finishes in the AFC North, three trips to the playoffs and three playoff defeats.
Harbaugh has been defeated twice by the Pittsburgh Steelers and once by the Indianapolis Colts in the postseason. The defense still seems to be playing spirited ball; Harbaugh just needs the offense to carry more of the load.
Now with his brother among the ranks of the NFL head-coaching fraternity, perhaps that will spur Harbaugh on to having his best year yet. The Ravens would like to win their division and gain home-field advantage.
Job security Rating: Very high
27) Mike Tomlin
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With two Super Bowl appearances in the last three years, Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin has done a solid job of keeping his Steelers in the hunt. The only real blemish to speak of was the failure to follow up the Super Bowl win by failing to qualify for the playoffs the following season.
Now that the Steelers are following up a Super Bowl appearance, it will be interesting to see if Tomlin can keep the team motivated enough to bring it back for another second-season appearance.
Job security rating: Very high
26 to 20) The New Head Coaches
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There are eight new head coaches in the 2011 NFL season, and we are going to give seven of the eight free passes for this year. How can we do that? The first year for a new head coach is generally thought to be a chance to get your feet wet and show that the team can compete, and then the screws are tightened in Year 2.
Especially with the way that the 2011 NFL offseason is playing out, it would almost be unthinkable for any owner or general manager to be so inclined as to fire their rookie head coach with so little time to do any amount of significant coaching. There is one rookie coach we can't include in this group, however, and we will explain that later on.
The seven new coaches that get a pass this year are John Fox (Denver), Jason Garrett (Dallas), Ron Rivera (Carolina), Jim Harbaugh (San Francisco), Pat Shurmur (Cleveland), Leslie Frazier (Minnesota) and Mike Munchak (Tennessee).
If any of these guys are fired this year, it would be an outrage.
Job security rating: Moderately high
19) Jim Caldwell
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Jim Caldwell, head coach of the Indianapolis Colts, has turned in two strong seasons with the Colts from a regular-season record standpoint.
But his strange timeout call in the playoffs last year against the New York Jets that allowed them to regroup and call for a long pass that set up a much shorter field goal is something that will hang over his head.
He had the Colts off to a 14-0 start two years ago, and after resting their starters they failed to find either the chemistry or momentum again to win the Super Bowl.
His job is probably pretty safe, but I like what he does in the regular season better than what he does in the second season so far.
Job security rating: Moderately safe
18) Andy Reid
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Philadelphia Eagles head coach Andy Reid continues to lead his team to the playoffs year after year. From the Donovan McNabb trade to the rise of Michael Vick, to Terrell Owens and now the Kevin Kolb situation, Reid deals with whatever issues come up and keeps things operating smoothly.
Three straight years in the playoffs and five-straight years without a losing record. Those are things that buy you additional years on your contract.
The lack of Super Bowl success is the only thing left for Reid to accomplish, but he has proven repeatedly that he is a winner. Is that good enough for Philadelphia? How many more years will he be allowed to run this show if he can't deliver the big prize?
For the near term, I suspect his job security is fine. After a couple or three more years of close but no cigar, we might need to consider downgrading his job security.
Job security rating: Moderately high
17) Raheem Morris
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Raheem Morris has been calling the shots as head coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the past two years. He took the team from 3-13 to 10-6 during that span, which is an amazing accomplishment.
He has the young Buccaneers believing that they are a talented team and that they can win on any week, which is half of the battle.
Now that we are coming into 2011, it will be very interesting to see if Morris can repeat a double-digit win total. Teams were caught by surprise somewhat last year, so the Bucs will not be taken as lightly in 2011. If Morris can duplicate the feat or even get his team into the playoffs, it will elevate his ranking in the coaching profession even more.
Job security ranking: Moderately high
16) Mike Smith
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Mike Smith, the head coach of the Atlanta Falcons, was able to take his team from a 9-7 record in 2009 to 13-3 in 2010. That four-game improvement was good enough for the best record in the NFC, but unfortunately the Falcons expected to go much deeper in to the playoffs than they did.
Some teams are just better regular-season teams than they are in the postseason. Can that be a label to place on the Falcons? They seemingly have the talent there to compete, so many more sets of eyes will be watching Atlanta this year to see if it can start winning some games in the playoffs or not.
You would think by the way the Falcons treated the 2011 NFL Draft that they are of the opinion that they are ready to win now. The big trade they pulled off with the Cleveland Browns to acquire Julio Jones demonstrates that they think they are close. But by giving away so many top picks from the 2011 draft as well as limiting their future drafts, they failed to address all of the defensive shortcomings that Green Bay exploited in the playoff game.
Smith has done a solid job so far in Atlanta, but his biggest challenge will be to shore up the defense and remove all doubts that the Packers playoff loss was simply a mirage.
Job security rating: Moderately high
15) Todd Haley
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Todd Haley is the head coach of the Kansas City Chiefs. Haley guided the Chiefs to a surprise AFC West division title last year and with it an appearance in the playoffs.
While the Chiefs were good enough to win the AFC West, the Baltimore Ravens proved that the Chiefs have a long way to go before they are considered a serious challenge. Losing at home 30-7 is about as embarrassing a playoff loss as you can have. It was a good learning experience for Haley and his team, but if they were cocky prior to the game, they came out of it with a dose of humility.
So where do they go from here? Surely the rest of the AFC West will be gunning for them in 2011. Do they have the talent and moxie to repeat, or do they drop back down to resemble the team that went 4-12 in 2009? If the latter happens, then we would have to change Haley's job security status, but for now we think his job is pretty safe.
Job security rating: Moderately safe
14) Jim Schwartz
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Jim Schwartz has turned the bumbling Detroit Lions into a team that people are starting to look at as the media darlings of the NFL. Schwartz will need to be careful, however, as that can lead to a false sense of self-worth. Just ask the teams that fell into that same category in the last few years—the Houston Texans and San Francisco 49ers—how their 2010 seasons turned out.
The Lions improved under Schwartz from 2-14 to 6-10. Okay, those aren't earth-shattering numbers, but we are talking about the Lions after all. Every season that shows a leap in improvement of three or four more wins than the year before is something to celebrate.
If Schwartz can lead the Lions to a .500 record or better this year, it is very possible that the Lions will turn the corner and become a contender in the NFC North. If they fall back down to a two- or three-win season, then his job may be on the line. How could that happen, you ask? My answer: When is the last time you saw Matthew Stafford play in more than 10 games in a season? Exactly.
Job security rating: Moderately high
13) Steve Spagnuolo
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From a 1-15 start to a 7-9 record in 2010, Steve Spagnuolo has done an admirable job of bringing the St. Louis Rams team back to respectability.
With their franchise quarterback in Sam Bradford now entrenched, the Rams can focus on improving the level of talent around him on offense and keeping up the pressure on defense.
With Josh McDaniels as his new offensive coordinator, Spagnuolo is hoping that the change will keep the Rams offense productive and allow them to take the next step up and win the NFC West division title.
If that happens, you might see the Rams offer Spagnuolo a contract extension.
Job security rating: Moderately high
12) Lovie Smith
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From a losing season in 2009 to taking his team to the NFC Championship Game in 2010, Chicago Bears head coach Lovie Smith did a nice job of securing his near-term future with the organization.
The Bears were just one game away from the Super Bowl, and if it weren't for the injury to Jay Cutler, the Bears might have been in the Super Bowl.
The Bears still have some holes they need to address, but Smith seems like he has a good handle on the Bears team and is running a solid team. If for some reason he turns in another losing season, then all bets are off.
Job security rating: Moderately high
11) Hue Jackson
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Earlier in the presentation, we mentioned that there was one new NFL head coach that we probably couldn't give a one-year exemption pass to. Now is the time to bring up the name of Hue Jackson, the new Oakland Raiders head coach.
Why can't we possibly give Jackson the benefit of the doubt and give him one year to get established and get his feet wet? Two-word answer: Al Davis.
As long as Davis continues to call the shots in Oakland, there is no way of knowing which way the wind will blow from one month to the next, much less one year to the next.
From what city he wants to play in to suing the NFL to falling out of interest with his own players and coaches, Al Davis is just as unpredictable an owner as you can imagine. With that assessment, we can now go ahead with our job security rating on Hue Jackson and wish him the best of luck.
Job Security Rating: You're kidding, right?
10) Chan Gailey
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Chan Gailey is the head coach of the Buffalo Bills. Brought into the organization with general manager Buddy Nix, it was a widely accepted notion that the duo were hired to construct a major rebuilding effort to bring the Bills back to respectability. The idea that it would take at least three years and probably four was shared with the media up front.
For those fans patient enough to realize that what the Bills had previously wasn't working, they are smart enough to realize that it will take time to turn the roster over. For Gailey, he will be allowed to finish off this year and probably next year as well. When that third year is completed, the team better be showing some positive results, or his job will be on the line.
Gailey did breathe life back into the Buffalo offense with his new schemes. The Bills competed with the likes of Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Kansas City but still showed that they are not yet close to the likes of New York Jets and New England Patriots. With those two foes in the AFC East, the Bills will continue to have one of the hardest schedules in the league. Just like in 2010, the 2011 Bills face the NFL's second-hardest schedule.
With the influx of new defensive talent, the defense should improve in 2011. The win total should improve as well, but the Bills still have a lot of work to do.
Job security rating: Moderately safe
9) Pete Carroll
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Pete Carroll had better hope that the Seahawks improve in 2011. The former USC head coach has seen more fallout from the USC program, as its national championship was stripped this past week. That means that if he ever needs to find future employment at the college level, he might find some athletic directors being very wary about wanting to sit down for an interview.
Can the Seahawks improve from the 2010 season that saw them win the NFC West with a losing record, yet somehow win a first-round playoff game and knock the defending Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints out of the playoffs? That is a good question, but when you reflect on the reactions of everyone in attendance at the NFL draft, you wonder if that is even possible.
A big key factor will be if the Seahawks can bring back free agent Matt Hasselbeck for one final hurrah. If not, the team might take a major dive in the 2011 season, and then people will start questioning Carroll in a whole new light.
Job security rating: Only average at best
8) Mike Shanahan
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Mike Shanahan's return to coaching in the NFL in the 2009 season didn't exactly go exactly as he was hoping for. He started off with major communication issues with star defensive lineman Albert Haynesworth, and the problems then transferred to quarterback Donovan McNabb.
Coming back for his second year at the helm of the Washington Redskins team, the good news is that team owner Daniel Snyder is prepared to spend big in free agency (how is that even possible?), and that fact will help to fix a number of holes on this team.
However, when you are faced with the prospect of starting John Beck at quarterback, how good can your team really be? This probably is not what Shanahan envisioned, but then again, are there that many NFL fans that will be crying a river for him? Somehow this seems like it all fits under what we like to refer to as karma.
Job security rating: Another bad year and this situation could blow up in his face.
7) Norv Turner
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I have to admit, I am somewhat stumped by the enigma that is Norv Turner. He has a sub-.500 record NFL record at 99-105-1. He has the No. 1-ranked NFL offense and the No. 1-ranked NFL defense, yet the team finishes 9-7?
It seems like he is on one year and off the next year. During the last four years at San Diego, the record reflects that feeling: 11-5 (good), 8-8 (average), 13-3 (very good) and then 9-7 (okay).
Yes, the Chargers had a number of holdout issues in 2010, but it is not like the Chargers didn't know they were going to happen. There wasn't a surprise in those events taking place. What also is not a surprise is that the Chargers get off to so many slow starts to their season. That is something that comes back to Turner, and he has to do a better job of getting his team ready from Week 1.
Job security rating: One bad season away from the unemployment line.
6) Ken Whisenhunt
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After four years at the helm of the Arizona Cardinals, Ken Whisenhunt is looking at a .500 record (32-32). He does have one Super Bowl appearance to show for his efforts so far.
But entering the 2011 NFL season, Arizona is one of the teams that has a huge question mark regarding who its quarterback will be this year. As the NFL lockout continues week after week, the window of time needed to implement an offense with its new quarterback continues to shrink.
As great as Larry Fitzgerald is, he alone is not able to save this team from another disappointing season. The fact that Whisenhunt was extended by Bill Bidwill means that he probably has at least one more year left on the job, because Bidwill hates to let someone walk away with lots of money being owed to him.
For that reason alone, he is safe in 2011. 2012 is a different story.
Job security rating: Tenuous
5) Tom Coughlin
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Some people may be upset that I have Tom Coughlin rated so low here, but there are reasons behind this ranking.
For starters, the Giants have missed out on the playoffs two years in a row. If it happens for a third straight year, I predict that the Giants will fire him.
Next, we have the New York City media mentality of "What have you done for me lately?"
Third, we have the Bill Cowher waiting in the wings factor. It has long been rumored that Cowher would love to coach the New York Giants, and a perceived upgrade in coaching may be exactly what the Giants front office thinks the team needs to turn things around.
The victory in Super Bowl XLII bought Coughlin a grace period, but that has worn away by now. It is sink or swim time.
Job security ranking: Shaky ground
4) Jack Del Rio
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Care to take a guess as to who is the longest-tenured NFL head coach not to have won his division title? The correct answer is Jack Del Rio.
Just like Norv Turner, he is somewhat of an enigma. He keeps his job in Jacksonville but really hasn't produced any kind of amazing playoff track record, so I see this experiment as coming to a close somewhere in the very near future.
Nothing against Del Rio personally, but when you fail to get your team to jump up to the next level year after year, there starts to be the perception that the players or the team is okay with that, because the owner doesn't seem to mind either. That is why he lets Del Rio continue to call the shots.
Job security rating: Getting weaker with each passing year
3) Marvin Lewis
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Pity Marvin Lewis. He works for a stubborn owner that finds a way to alienate his players. The owner won't make the necessary changes to allow the team to improve, yet Lewis decided to come back for more of this cruel and unusual punishment.
Many people expected Lewis to leave the Cincinnati Bengals after the disappointing 2010 season. In fact, most experts thought it was a forgone conclusion. But for some reason, Lewis decided to sign on for more mental anguish and return to the team.
With Carson Palmer looking to retire, Chad Ochocinco riding bulls, trying new sports and trashing the team via his Twitter account, and the Terrell Owens show leaving town, the Bengals are looking like 2011 could be another long year. All of this after winning the AFC North division just two short years ago (2009) with a record of 10-6.
Can't predict if he will be fired or if he will resign out of sheer frustration, but I can't see how this arrangement can last for any longer than one more year.
Job security rating: Fading away
2) Gary Kubiak
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Gary Kubiak has been running the show for the Houston Texans as their head coach for the past five years. How many times have the Texans appeared in the playoffs under Kubiak? Try none. How many head coaches are still employed by the same team after no playoff appearances in five years? Few and far between.
So, for starters, Kubiak should feel fortunate to still be employed by the Texans organization. The team was thought to be on the cusp of taking the jump up to playoff caliber as we entered the 2010 season, but something funny happened on the way to playoff fame and fortune: The Texans secondary disappeared. Houston, we have a problem. The secondary has split. It is nowhere to be found.
Being a former quarterback, you would have thought that Kubiak should have had a better handle on how bad the secondary was looking and taken the necessary steps to do whatever it took before the season started. But somehow the whole situation eluded him, and that is why I have him firmly in the crosshairs of the bottom two coaches for job security in the NFL.
Job security rating: Time to start packing your bags.
1) Tony Sparano
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Tony Sparano. One look at this picture and I can almost read his mind. You really think the team is going to respect me when my owner is flying around the country trying to recruit Jim Harbaugh while I am still under contract?
For Sparano not to be considered a lame duck is to think that there is still lots of great swamp land available in South Florida to build your retirement home on.
It just doesn't look very good for Sparano this year. With Chad Henne at the controls, the offense will go nowhere. They face the New York Jets and the New England Patriots in the top-heavy AFC East. Hopefully there will be other jobs for him to consider in 2012.
In parting, we can only wish that when it is time to be told his services are no longer needed, the one to drop the bomb is not Stephen Ross, but minority owner Jennifer Lopez, to soften the blow.
Job security rating: Have some good real estate agents on speed dial.
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