NBA Trade Rumors: What Would Milwaukee Bucks Gain by Trading Brandon Jennings?
The Milwaukee Bucks offense this past season was—to put it bluntly—absolutely terrible.
The Bucks were dead last in effective field goal percentage (FG percent weighted to account for threes), offensive efficiency, assists per game and points per game.
Like I said, terrible.
With offensive numbers this bad, most of the finger-pointing is directed at the point guard, in this case Brandon Jennings. Jennings also didn't help his case by criticizing teammates and management, questioning whether or not they had "the mindset of winning."
Add these factors in with Jennings perceived "sophomore slump" and you have all the ingredients needed for trade speculation to erupt. Which is of course what happened, as the Cleveland Plain Dealer reported that the Bucks would be open to trading their 21-year-old point guard.
But before we put Jennings' head on the chopping block, let's take a deep breath and look at the realities of this situation.
Did Jennings really regress last year? How much blame should fall on the supporting cast? And how much could the Bucks expect to get back if they traded their young point guard?
Did Jennings Really Have a Sophomore Slump?
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The common perception is that Jennings took a step back in his second season, suffering from the dreaded, yet somewhat common "sophomore slump." The slump generally occurs because of increased focus from opposing defenses, a growing scouting report on the player, and an increased role within his own team.
But did Jennings really struggle that much from the extra attention?
When comparing his rookie year to sophomore season, we see that his field goal percentage actually increased from 37 percent to 39 percent, his points per game raised from 15.5 to 16.2, and his Player Efficiency Rating elevated from 14.5 to 15.62. He also slightly decreased his turnovers, from 2.4 per game to 2.3.
Looking at his shot locations, Jennings actually got to the rim more (2010 - 3.5 attempts, 2011- 4.0 attempts) and converted at a higher rate (2010 - 42.7 percent to 51.4 percent).
Jennings also cut down on his long twos, which is widely regarded as the worst shot in basketball.
His shots from the 10-15 feet range decreased from 1.5 to 1.3 per game, while his percentage raised from 29.9 percent to 37.6 percent. And he lowered his attempts 16-23 feet away from the basket from 3.6 to 2.8 per game, while again raising his percentage from 34 percent to 35 percent.
So did Jennings really regress in his sophomore season? Based off the numbers above, I'd have to say no.
Of course, critics would like to point out that his assists dropped from 5.7 per game his rookie year, to 4.8 this past season.
But this is not entirely his fault. Some of the blame must fall on the abysmal shooters that Jennings' is feeding the ball to.
John Salmons and Corey Magette
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Before we criticize Jennings for his lack of assists, let's take a look at the guys he's passing the ball to.
John Salmons, brought in two years ago for his ability to score, shot just 41.5% last season. That was his lowest total since 2004-05.
Corey Maggette, signed last off-season to lift some of the scoring bunch off of Jennings, shot 45.3%, his lowest total since 2005-06.
But what's more troubling than the relatively low percentages is where the shots are being taken. Salmons averaged 6.6 attempts per game from 16 feet and beyond, but just 5.6 from 15 feet or closer. Similarly, Maggette took 4.9 shots per game from 16 feet or further, and only 3.5 from 15 feet on in.
Also, Maggette's reputation within the league is that he is a strong, physical forward who will relentlessly attack the rim and get to the free throw line. But last season he attempted just 2.3 shots at the rim per game, down from 5.0 in 2009-10. His free throw numbers reflect this lack of aggression: 4.9 attempts per game this past year, down from 7.9 the year before.
Does Jennings deserve some of the blame for Milwaukee's offensive inefficiency? Absolutely. He's the point guard, and it's his job to get guys the ball in a position where they can be effective.
But he can't force guys to be aggressive, and he sure as hell can't make the shots for them. That falls squarely on the shoulders of Maggette and Salmons.
Is Trading Jennings Worth It?
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I don't believe it would be worth it for Milwaukee to trade Jennings, certainly not at this point in his career. He is only 21, meaning he is younger than about half of the prospects in this year's draft.
He is an incredibly gifted, athletic point guard, which don't exactly come around often. Over the next ten years, the Bucks will be playing against Derrick Rose, Rajon Rondo, John Wall, and Russell Westbrook on a nightly basis. Might be good to have an athletic point guard around to go against those guys.
Also, Jennings still has three years remaining on his rookie contract, meaning that he is an absolute steal at just over $2.3 million per year. It also means it is highly unlikely that Milwaukee could get equal value for him at such a cheap price.
Bucks fans, just be patient with Brandon Jennings. You are inevitably going to hit some speed bumps with a young starting point guard, but it will all be worth it. Jennings has enormous potential, and it would be a shame to see him blossom into a top-5 point guard while wearing another team's uniform.
Is Jennings a little inefficient? Sure. Does he need to mature and grow as a leader? Absolutely. But the dude is young enough to still be in college, and he's already accomplished some amazing things on an NBA court. Give him time and you will reap the benefits.
