Elite Eight: Big-Name Cinderellas in the NCAA Tournament

Sure, teams like George Mason, Bradley, Northwestern State, and Wichita State are fun to root for in March—even if they doom you in your pool. But mid-major squads aren't the only ones who can score upsets in the spring. Often, low-seeded schools from big-name conferences stage improbable runs through the tournament—and can turn an average bracket into an extraordinary one.

 

Last season, it was LSU, West Virginia, and Georgetown who foiled the experts. Two years back, it was Louisville, Michigan State, and Wisconsin. Who's it going to be in 2007? Without further ado, and pending their eligibility as at-large bids or conference champions, I present to you eight major-conference Cinderellas with a chance to turn heads in the NCAA Tournament.

 

1.  Villanova

Conference: Big East

Overall Record Prior to February 12^th: 17-7

Conference Record Prior to February 12^th: 5-5

Significant Wins: at Georgetown, vs. Notre Dame, vs. Texas

Poor Losses: vs. DePaul, vs. Drexel, at Xavier

Notes: Curtis Sumpter is back! After missing all of the 2005-2006 season with a significant knee injury, he's posting a career high 17.7 PPG to go with 7.0 RPG. Villanova's weakness is that they only go six deep, and don't have a player who averages significant minutes listed over 6'8". A week ago this team looked like it was going to be in a position to grab anywhere from a 12 to a 9 seed, but recent projections have them climbing as high as 6. As an 11 or 12 seed the Wildcats definitely have the potential to make a two-game run to the Sweet 16, but their lack of height will likely prohibit them from advancing much further than that.

2. Arizona

Conference: Pac 10

Overall Record Prior to February 12^th: 17-7

Conference Record Prior to February 12^th: 8-5

Significant Wins: vs. (18) Memphis, at (20) Washington, at (15) Oregon

Poor Losses: vs. (4) UNC

Notes: Five weeks ago, Arizona was 11-1 and ranked seventh in the nation in the AP Poll. Now, they're being talked about as a possible 7 seed in the tournament. Their big win over a plummeting Oregon squad helps their standing, but their in-conference record is still a pedestrian 8-5. Yes, the Pac 10 is the best conference in the nation, but a national championship contender should be able to distance itself from its regular competition. Instead, the Wildcats find themselves currently tied for fifth in the league. They do boast an outstanding starting five, and freshman Jordan Hill may step up to give them an imposing six-man rotation come March. Whether they can reel off a six-game tear remains to be seen.

3. Florida State

Conference: ACC

Overall Record Prior to February 12^th: 17-8

Conference Record Prior to February 12^th: 5-6

Significant Wins: vs. (4) Florida, vs. (25) Virginia Tech, at (10) Duke

Poor Losses: at Georgia Tech, at Clemson

Notes: The loss to BC on Sunday was a setback—but not a backbreaker for Florida State's at-large hopes. For the first time in several years, their Strength of Schedule is out of the lower 100s, ranking at an impressive thirteenth in the nation. Given the Seminoles' remaining schedule, it wouldn't be a surprise to see them finish 4-1, which would leave them at 21-9 (9-7) entering the ACC Tournament and on firm footing for a tournament bid. In FSU's favor: Seven players on their roster have knocked down at least 10 3-pointers this season, giving them a strong underdog pedigree. They only boast one player taller than 6'9", so outside shooting—and superb play from ACC Player of the Year candidate Al Thornton—will be vital to their postseason success. 

4. Stanford

Conference: Pac 10

Overall Record Prior to February 12^th: 15-8

Conference Record Prior to February 12^th: 7-5

Significant Wins: vs. (24) Washington, vs. (23) Washington State, vs. (2) UCLA

Poor Losses: vs. Air Force, vs. Santa Clara, vs. California

Notes: The thought of the brothers Lopez patrolling the lane is a scary one for any opposing coach. Few teams have one, much less two seven-footers who can crash the boards, block shots, and score with as much frequency as this tandem. Combined, the twins are good for 20 points, 11.5 boards, and 4.5 blocks a game—and they're picking up steam as the season progresses. Throw in sophomore forward Lawrence Hill with his 16-and-6 numbers and you've got the makings of a possible Final Four squad in Palo Alto. Like other teams in the country (including Texas, Ohio State, and UNC), the Cardinal's top scoring threats are underclassmen, so their success will invariably hinge on the poise their youngsters can show under the pressure of the tournament.

5. Texas

Conference: Big XII

Overall Record Prior to February 12^th: 17-6

Conference Record Prior to February 12^th: 7-3

Significant Wins: vs. (11) LSU, at Texas Tech

Poor Losses: vs. Villanova, vs. Kansas State

Notes: In 2003, Syracuse won the national championship riding the broad shoulders of then-freshman Carmelo Anthony. At that time, the pundits made a big hullabaloo about a freshman-led team winning the title—and I can only imagine the uproar that would ensue if these Longhorns make a run in March. And it's certainly possible. Texas is nationally ranked in the Top 25, so they aren't exactly a Cinderella team...but they do have six freshmen and two sophomores all averaging more than twelve minutes a game. With that in mind, Texas will be one of the most intriguing teams in the tournament—picked by some insiders to go all the way and by others to lose in the first round.

6. Washington

Conference: Pac 10

Overall Record Prior to February 12^th: 16-8

Conference Record Prior to February 12^th: 6-7

Significant Wins: vs. (15) LSU, vs. (7) Oregon

Poor Losses: at California, at USC

Notes: By no means are the Huskies a lock to make the tournament, but their case is looking significantly stronger than it did even a week ago. They were ranked thirteenth in the country entering Pac 10 play, but a 1-6 start had them dead in the water with no obvious hope of righting the ship. Lorenzo Romar has made some adjustments over the past few weeks, though, and his team is now 6-7 in the conference with five opportunities in its final six games to make upset statements over ranked opponents. It'll be an uphill battle, but if a young (notice a trend yet?) seven-man rotation—led by freshmen Spencer Hawes and Quincy Pondexter, sophomores Jon Brockman and Justin Dentmon, and junior Ryan Appleby—can find a way to finish the regular season 4-2, UW should crack the field of 65.

7. Alabama

Conference: SEC

Overall Record Prior to February 12^th: 18-6

Conference Record Prior to February 12^th: 5-6

Significant Wins: vs. (18) LSU

Poor Losses: at Vanderbilt, at Auburn, vs. Arkansas, at Arkansas

Notes: They're still sitting atop the SEC West—but for how much longer? Though they haven't shown it lately, the Crimson Tide are a potent team. With four players averaging over 12 PPG and Jamareo Davidson and Richard Hendrix each grabbing nearly 9 RPG, 'Bama has the weapons to make a push for the Sweet 16 or the Elite 8. Like Arizona, however, they rely on a six-man rotation, and their depth has come into question over the past month. In a week's time, we should have a firmer grasp of the Tide's real character; over the next few days, they take on (1) Florida in Gainesville and (18) Kentucky in Tuscaloosa. If they win one of those two (and especially if they knock off the Gators), the Tide should have an at-large berth waiting for them at the end of the season.

8. Providence

Conference: Big East

Overall Record Prior to February 12^th: 15-8

Conference Record Prior to February 12^th: 5-5

Significant Wins: vs. Boston College, vs. (21) Marquette, at Connecticut

Poor Losses: at Seton Hall, vs. Brown

Notes: Making the tournament will take great feats from the Friars from here on out. Their final six games of the regular season are as follows: at Notre Dame, vs. St. John's, vs. (22) West Virginia, vs. Syracuse, at South Florida, at St. John's. None of those games are gimmies, but the schedule does give Providence a realistic chance to build its record to 20-9 before the Big East tournament. With a two-game run there, the Friars would make it awfully hard for the selection committee to turn them down. They don't have much depth—four players on the roster average more than 31 MPG—but in a one-and-done tournament the Friars are the type of team who can cause problems for opponents. Keep an eye on them as they jockey for an at-large bid to close out the season.