2011 NFL Preview: Bold Predictions for Every First-Round Rookie
The 2011 NFL Draft class features several prospects with high expectations in their rookie season. Likewise, there are a few high draft picks that aren't likely to make any impact at all in the pending season.
Post-draft analysis showed a wide array of opinions on several first round selections. One thing everyone can agree on is we hope the "pending" is changed to "upcoming" season sooner as opposed to later.
32. Green Bay Packers: Derek Sherrod, OT
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The Packers have some issues on their OL. They addressed an immediate need later in the draft at the guard position.
Sherrod will likely serve as depth and learn the position in 2011. Chad Clifton will likely be starting ahead of him at LT, with Bryan Bulaga holding down the other side. Starting in 2012 the two should make solid bookends for the Packer OL.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers: Cameron Heyward, DE
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Heyward moved up and down draft boards as much as any player in the 2011 draft. He was expected to be taken in the first half of round one, but an up and down season in 2010 left him on the board at the end of the first round.
He is entering a great situation in Pittsburgh. He'll be surrounded by talent, and won't be pressed into a starting role until 2012. He'll be able to fill situational roles and learn the position and speed of the NFL.
Expect Heyward to put up a few numbers in 2011, as he'll be given the opportunity to rush the QB. However, a backup role will keep him from making too big of a splash.
30. New York Jets: Muhammad Wilkerson, DE
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The Jets first round selection was possibly only outdone by the Arizona Cardinals. They drafted one of the best players available and filled a hole that will likely be left by Shaun Ellis.
Wilkerson will be stepping into a familiar defense, and will be playing next to a rotation of Sione Pouha and Kenrick Ellis at nose tackle. He should be dominant on this defense, and his versatility will make him valuable to the Jets at the three or five technique.
Wilkerson won't post gaudy sack numbers but he'll be a great run-stuffer.
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29. Chicago Bears: Gabe Carimi, OT
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Wow. That is exactly what the Chicago Bears' front office must have said when Carimi was still on the board.
Olin Kreutz will be be the leader of this unit so long as he is re-signed by the Bears, but Carimi could likely be the best blocker on this line. He'll step in at LT, and as long as he has adequate time to develop with his new coaching staff, he will be a solid blocker.
28. New Orleans Saints: Mark Ingram, RB
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While it may be fair to question what the Saints gave up to get Ingram, it is hard to ignore his potential. He will step into a crowded backfield...at least for now.
The Saints already have Chris Ivory, Reggie Bush, and Pierre Thomas on their roster, amongst several others. They've had health issues, though, which led to the pick of another RB with an injury concern.
Ingram should figure to be the featured back for the Saints, but he will share carries. He should get 200 carries for 900 yards, and with enough early success he will command more opportunities and a shot at a 1,000 yard rookie season. The Saints only had nine total rushing TDs last season; Ingram figures to challenge that mark as a rookie.
27. Baltimore Ravens: Jimmy Smith, CB
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The Ravens managed to fill their biggest need in round one with an incredible talent. Smith has vast potential, and his ultimate success will likely be tempered only by his off-field concerns.
I think the character concerns with Smith are over-blown, and he is entering a great situation in Baltimore. He's joining a solid defense that will be able to utilize his press coverage skills.
The Ravens are able to provide solid pressure from their defensive line anchored by Haloti Ngata, whom they put the franchise tag on this offseason. Their linebacking crew can also assist with rushing the QB, and their run support will take some pressure off Smith in the weak part of his game.
It is difficult to know whom he'll be starting opposite of, as Chris Carr, Josh Wilson and Fabian Washington are all free agents. Smith could end up being the top CB on the team, but will likely be challenged by QBs because of his rookie status. This could allow him to put up some decent interception totals and he will compete for Defensive Rookie of the Year (DROY).
26: Kansas City Chiefs: Jonathan Baldwin, WR
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Expectations for Baldwin will be low in 2011. He'll be on a team that places emphasis on the run game with Jamaal Charles and his 6.4 yards per carry average in 2010. Oddly, Thomas Jones had more carries but significantly fewer yards. He isn't likely worth the $3 million he is owed in 2011, and the Chiefs drafted Shane Bannon as his likely replacement.
The passing game will continue to focus on Dwayne Bowe and a significant side of Charles. There will still be some targets left for Baldwin, but look for the Chiefs to not lean on him too heavily.
Last season Chris Chambers and Dexter McCluster were the second and third WRs, and they both had just over 20 receptions and 200 yards. Look for Baldwin to take over those touches.
25. Seattle Seahawks: James Carpenter, OT
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Carpenter is the one definite "oops" selection from the 2011 draft. Either the Seahawks will be saying "oops" for passing on Gabe Carimi, or their critics will stammer over the word for their harsh judgement with this selection.
I do believe it will be the latter. This was the guy that Pete Carroll, John Schneider, and Tom Cable all wanted for their offensive line. He brings a nasty streak, and is a punishing run blocker...just ask that Ingram kid what he thought about following Carpenter's blocks.
Carpenter will also be solid in the passing game even though he didn't garner much pre-draft hype, likely because of a slow 40 time (5.28 seconds). He was also down-graded by some analysts for his run blocking. This makes little sense, though, as that is where he excelled for Alabama, and is what Cable really likes about him.
Look for Carpenter to pull the starting RT spot away from Stacey Andrews and Ray Willis. Carroll said he will push Russell Okung for starting LT duties, which is significant praise for the rookie. Those two will create the best young bookend tandem in the league in 2011.
Despite becoming one of the best OTs in this draft, I do not predict Trent Dilfer retracting his tirade on the Seahawks' draft decisions.
24. New Orleans Saints: Cameron Jordan, DE
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The first of what ended up being two picks late in the first round, the Saints snagged a top-15 prospect for their defensive line.
Jordan not only fills the biggest weak spot for the Saints, as they had issues pressuring and sacking the QB in 2010, but he is also the biggest steal of the first round. He figured to be taken in the first half of the draft, but teams passed on him in favor of Smith, Watt, Quinn, and even Kerrigan. At a minimum, the Redskins and Rams will regret their decisions.
Jordan immediately steps into a position where he can make a run at DROY. He should be a sack machine and a solid run stopper. Look for him to lead all rookies in sacks in 2011 and help improve a Saint defense that allowed Matt Hasselbeck ample time to post two amazing performances against them in 2010...not to mention giving up one of the most incredible runs in NFL history.
23. Philadelphia Eagles: Danny Watkins, OG
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The Eagles have put Watkins in a tough position. He may be the best OG in the draft, and he should have a great season. However, he'll be under tremendous pressure to perform as a veteran because of his age.
Watkins looks to be the starting RG, but won't be getting much help at the RT position unless they are able to upgrade via free agency. The Eagles draft was difficult to follow, as they ignored needs at RT but drafted three guards.
Look for Watkins to be a solid guard, but his lack of experience will create a significant learning curve in the NFL. He really would have benefited from OTAs and mini-camps.
22. Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Castonzo, OT
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OT is a huge need for the Colts, as they need to replace Charlie Johnson and upgrade Ryan Diem. They only drafted one, though, so it looks like Castonzo will be getting a crack at protecting Peyton Manning's blind side.
I couldn't quite make my mind up on Castonzo. While Tyron Smith was my preferred OT in this draft, going back to February before he became the en-vogue selection for the Cowboys, I commented early on that a team needing a LT that can start right away should be looking at Castonzo or Carimi.
The best news for Castonzo is that while he'll have to face Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis early and often, it won't be in game situations. They will be invaluable in his learning and growth, and they will help make Castonzo a solid pass blocker.
Look for him to surrender three QB sacks as a rookie, but that figure would be higher if he had a different QB behind him.
21. Cleveland Browns: Phil Taylor, DT
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Taylor will take over for Shaun Rogers after the Browns shed him and his $6 million salary for 2011. He is versatile enough to move up and down the line, and will be a solid run-stopper in the AFC North.
Rogers had 17 tackles and 2.0 sacks in 2010. The same production would have cost the Browns $285,000 per tackle, plus an extra $500,000 per sack. I predict Taylor will cost them less than half that for his production in 2011.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Adrian Clayborn, DE
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The Buccaneers are working in earnest to improve their defensive line. While Clayborn didn't follow up his amazing 2009 campaign as strongly as most expected, he does have the physical tools to be solid against the run and disruptive in opposing passing games.
Look for Clayborn to play a mix of DE and DT. The Buccaneers could have one of the better defensive fronts in 2011, so long as Clayborn shows up ready and nasty every game.
Eight sacks and 50 tackles are within his reach as a rookie. Reminiscent of a Buccaneer predecessor, anything less would be too civilized. My apologies to readers that are too young to remember Warren Sapp doing Right Guard commercials.
19. New York Giants: Prince Amukamara
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In one of the more surprising draft-day falls, Amukamara ends up landing on a solid team. CB wasn't a need for the Giants, but they drafted based on best player available.
Amukamara will be the second CB, provided he wins a starting job as a rookie. The Giants already have established CBs, so it will be interesting to see how he is used.
He will get more targets because he's a rookie on this defense. This will be bad news for opposing QBs, but good news for Giants fans.
Terrell Thomas had five INTs last year, with Corey Webster picking off four. I'm predicting Amukamara will have more sacks than the zero INTs he had in 2010, but he won't surpass Thomas' 2010 figure.
18. San Diego Chargers: Cory Liuget, DT
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The Chargers already had the top-ranked offense and defense. Given a team can't really draft a standout special teams player in the first round, they settled for Liuget.
He will be a big plug in the middle of the Chargers defensive line, and will somehow manage to make them better against the run. There were three teams that were better in 2010, so there is marginal room for improvement.
Despite his relative height issues, Liuget will transfer well to a 3-4 run stopper, and offer some help with QB pressure. He won't be an every-down player, but I predict he will spend some time tinkering with the DE position, particularly on running downs.
17. New England Patriots: Nate Solder, OT
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The expectations for Solder in 2011 are minimal...at best. He needs to be able to sit and learn for a year or two and grow into his frame. However, Matt Light's issues in 2010 may press Solder into the starting lineup.
Should this happen, I predict Ryan Mallett will see starting time much earlier than the Patriots had planned. This won't be a good thing for Mallett. While he is big enough to take a few hits, he lacks the mobility to extend plays when blocking assignments are blown.
Obviously, I'm not a fan of Solder, and didn't feel he belonged in first round discussions. He was abused by fast, small, and big DEs in college. Despite his athleticism, he needs time to become a starting-caliber OT in the NFL. This pick was a much bigger reach than any other OL.
16. Washington Redskins: Ryan Kerrigan, DE
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The Redskins picked up a pass-rushing force with Kerrigan. He is explosive off the edge, and has the speed to get around OTs and chase down most of the QBs in his division. There is one guy a little north of DC that will be problematic, though.
Playing opposite of Brian Orakpo will give the Redskins a dominant pass rush. Look for the Redskins to be near the top in total sacks in 2011, with the two totaling 20 sacks. That is a bit of a leap, as Orakpo only had 8.5 in 2011. But the overall defensive line will be improved in 2011, allowing the LBs to be a bit more opportunistic.
15. Miami Dolphins: Mike Pouncey, G/C
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Pouncey will feel some pressure to live up to the standard set by his brother, but that will be a tough standard. Despite being identical twins, Mike doesn't have the same abilities as his brother.
Dolphin fans are expecting to get a run-blocking stud in Pouncey, but my prediction is he will have a tough time transitioning to the size and strength of NFL nose tackles. He will be a disappointment in the run game and will give up four sacks.
14. St. Louis Rams: Robert Quinn, DE
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Quinn isn't likely to see extended work in 2011, as he will be working in the Rams' rotation. This season will be all about preparing to take over duties for James Hall in 2012.
Quinn will still get some opportunities, and could pick up five sacks. However anyone expecting him to play a significant role as a rookie will be disappointed.
The Rams made a smart decision here, as they are setting up their team for the long-term. Quinn will be better off spending a season learning from Hall, and it will make the Rams a better team in 2012.
13. Detroirt Lions: Nick Fairley, DT
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Fairley was projected as high as the top pick in the NFL Draft. While falling to the 13th slot will cost him some salary, it does set him up to play for an emerging defensive line. The Lions drafted the best defensive lineman two years in a row.
Detroit was in the bottom third in the NFL in run defense last year. Fairley will help them move into the top third of the league. I'd say a little higher, but they still have to play against Peterson twice a year.
At least five teams will be scratching their heads trying to remember why they decided against drafting Fairley after his rookie season...starting with the Denver Broncos.
12. Minnesota Vikings: Christian Ponder, QB
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Some considered Ponder to be the stretch pick of the draft, but with the number of teams that could have been looking at him, the Vikings had to strike with their pick to get what they feel will be their franchise QB.
The biggest concern with Ponder has been his health, but he is about as close to an NFL-ready QB as there was in the 2011 class. Assuming the Vikings bring back Sydney Rice and Stephen Burton or a free agent WR who can step up, Ponder could have a rookie year that would rival Sam Bradford's.
I'm not saying Ponder is as good a QB, but he has a much better supporting cast. He will also need his aging line to give him time...a luxury afforded to Bradford last season.
11. Houston Texans: J.J. Watt, DE
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Watt will be a pressing pass rusher from the five-technique, giving the Texans the push they want and need against opposing passing games. He'll likely be lining up against a few other rookies this year, which could help his stats a bit.
Watt will have solid production so long as the middle of the defensive line can do what is expected of them. That is uncertain, though, as they don't have an experienced 3-4 DT on their roster.
I predict Watt and the Texan pass rush will still suffer in 2011 unless they address the DT position in free agency.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars: Blaine Gabbert, QB
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Gabbert worked a spread offense in college, and wasn't exactly successful doing it. Yes, he was adept at hitting receivers on quick, short passes, and could hit a RB in the flat with the best of them. However, he struggled with the vertical passing game.
Gabbert isn't going to press for playing time in 2011. If David Garrard gets hurt he may see some playing time, but even then I'd expect Gabbart's impact in 2011 to be non-existent.
9. Dallas Cowboys: Tyron Smith, OT
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Smith will be stepping into a great position. He'll be playing opposite Doug Free on an OL that has some talent, but is lacking a few pieces. They still need some help at guard, but the OT positions will be set.
Smith will make a push for pro bowl consideration in 2011, but will fall short. He will be one of the better RTs in the NFC, though, and will help ensure Tony Romo can go all 16 games. Not 17 or 18 or...just 16.
8. Tennessee Titans: Jake Locker, QB
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While he doesn't seem to be ready to start in the NFL, that is the position Locker is likely in. I don't see Kerry Collins beating him out for the starting position. Unless they grab an experienced QB in free agency to help bridge the gap, Locker will be given an opportunity to start in 2011.
The main thing Locker will show in 2011 is his accuracy is much better than what it was made out to be in college. He was playing behind a weak offensive line, causing too many balls to be thrown away. He was also throwing to young WRs that couldn't handle the velocity on his passes.
The Titans don't have the best WRs in the NFL, but they are adequate. They'll also benefit from having a QB that can air the ball out a bit, and Locker could double Nate Washington's TD total from 2010 (six).
7. San Francisco 49ers: Aldon Smith, DE
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This seemed a bit high for Smith, and there seemed to be better options on the board. However, I am not one to question who is the best fit for Jim Harbaugh's new team.
Smith will take some time to adjust from a 4-3 DE to a 3-4 rush LB. He has plenty of speed and athleticism to pressure the QB. He'll also be surrounded by a lot of talent.
I predict Smith will lead the 49ers in sacks in 2011, and anything short of that will be a disappointment...unless someone else manages to step up their game. Justin Smith held that honor last year, but the 49ers would likely prefer a DE or OLB hold the title of sack leader.
6. Atlanta Falcons: Julio Jones, WR
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Fortunately, I get to ignore discussions on if the price the Falcons paid was worth the value they will get from Jones.
His athletic prowess is well established. However, I've been concerned with his tendency to drop passes that should be caught. Once he steps up a level to the NFL, he'll no longer have the extra step to wrap the ball up. Further, CBs in the NFL are adept at going after the ball and separating it from receivers hands.
Jones will need to improve his focus and concentration to have the success the Falcons envision with him. Playing alongside Roddy White will certainly help.
5. Arizona Cardinals: Patrick Peterson, CB
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I mentioned earlier how much I liked this selection. Partly because he will fill a big hole in the Cardinal secondary, and partly because it made me look like I knew what I was talking about (for a change) relative to Gabbert NOT being the guy here.
Peterson is my preliminary pick for DROY, and that is my prediction for him...shocking as that is.
4. Cincinnati Bengals: A.J. Green, WR
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The Bengals showed with their first pick they are planning for the transition from Chad Ochocinco. Round Two showed they are looking at life beyond Carson Palmer.
Green's performance is contingent on the QB that is throwing him the ball, but it is hard to ignore what the second WR behind Ochocinco has been able to accomplish with the Bengals. Be it TJ or TO, both have put up fantastic numbers with defenders focusing on the other side of the field.
Expect the same from Green in 2011. Anything short of a 70 Rec, 1,000 yard, 8 TD season will be a surprise and likely a disappointment for the Bengals and their fans. However, if it is Andy Dalton throwing the ball, these numbers aren't likely to materialize.
3. Buffalo Bills: Marcell Dareus, DT
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Buffalo's defense was dead last against the run in 2010 (2,714 yards, 170 YPG). They fared significantly better against the pass (third), but there is some debate on how much of that was a reflection of teams not needing to pass on them. After all, teams did complete over 62 percent of their pass attempts, and only the Raiders were thrown on less than the Bills.
Regardless, Dareus is exactly the player they needed to anchor their defensive front. He will immediately upgrade their run defense, which is exactly what they need. As a bonus, he should be able to apply interior pressure and help collapse the pocket on passing downs.
My bold prediction for Dareus is he will move the Bills out of the last spot in rushing defense. That is actually saying something, though, as Denver was the closest team to them and they surrendered about 250 fewer yards on the season. Dareus will help them shave 20 yards per game in 2011.
2. Denver Broncos: Von Miller, OLB
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While this pick was a forgone conclusion after Newton was taken first overall, I was still surprised at making a LB that doesn't look to be a good system-fit the second pick in the draft.
The Broncos need help as they convert to a 4-3 defense, but most thought they would look at the interior of their line. Dareus looked like a better fit, but the Broncos decision to take the person many believe to be the best pass rusher in the draft shows where their priorities lie.
The problem is, they were second to last defending the run last year. A pass rusher doesn't help if teams don't need to throw the ball. I'm on a bit of a limb here, but I believe Miller will be a bit of a disappointment in 2011. The Broncos don't seem to be the right system for him, and their lack of a run defense will play right into Miller's weakness. He isn't stout against the run.
1. Carolina Panthers: Cam Newton, QB
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Newton's supporting cast is still an uncertainty, as is his status as a backup or starter with Jimmy Clausen and Matt Moore on the roster.
Most analysts expect him to be on the field when the Panthers face the Cardinals to open the season. However, the offense he ran...and I do mean "ran"...at Auburn was hardly complex and did little to help get him ready for the NFL. Newton needs to prove he is up for the task, and his high draft status may be the only reason he gets the nod.
If Newton is going to stay out of the bottom five in QB performance in 2011, he'll need some help. Young QBs usually like to lean on a TE, but the offseason signing of Jeremy Shockey isn't likely to fix their issues at the position.
The Panthers are also thin at WR. Steve Smith is hardly the type of player to step up and help a rookie QB develop, and his speed and production are not exactly on par with a number one WR. Brandon LaFell isn't likely going to pick up the slack, either.
Newton could very well pick up almost as many yards with his feet as he does with his arm in 2011, and I predict he'll lead all QBs in rushing yards. The team still has several holes on the offensive unit, which will make it difficult for Newton to thrive in the passing game.
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