Philadelphia Eagles DeSean Jackson: Is He Worth Top Wide Receiver Money?

How much is DeSean Jackson worth to the Philadelphia Eagles?  That is the question the Eagles’ front office must answer in the near future.  It is well known that he wants a new deal and for the most part has been professional about his situation. 

In other words, he’s not doing sit-ups in his driveway and complaining to the media ala one Mr. Terrell Owens.  Jackson is a dynamic player, a game changer and someone that defenses must account for at all times.

He is a speed demon that can stretch the field and is a threat to score any time he touches the ball.  Jackson has scored on long receptions, end-arounds and punt returns.  I’m sure we all remember his electrifying punt return that won the Giants game last season as time expired. 

And who can forget the first play from scrimmage against the Redskins on Monday Night Football when he hauled in a 88-yard bomb for a touchdown while leaving the Redskin defenders in the dust.  He is a graceful athlete and makes it look easy.  DeSean has also brought out the playful side of Andy Reid as evidenced by the memorable "jump bump" (where Reid actually got about one inch of air under his feet).

There is no doubt that Jackson is a valuable player.  But, for those of us who follow Eagles football, he has also seemingly disappeared at times.  Either through long stretches of a game or over multiple games, I have found myself wondering, "Where's Jackson?"

To put this in boxing terms, he is like the big hay-maker that will knock the opponent to the canvas and have him seeing stars for a few minutes.  But he is not the consistent jabs and body blows that wear you down over the duration of the fight.

Jackson is a big play guy but not the guy who will make the big catch in a clutch situation.  As the offense moves closer to the opponent's end zone, he becomes less of a factor because there isn't as much field to work with.  He is not a physical threat and certainly won't "out muscle" a defender for the ball.  At 5'10", 175 lbs, he is not much of a red-zone target.  Plus, he has shown vulnerability to concussions from big hits.  With a guy his size and weight, it is certainly fair to wonder about his longevity in this league.

All of this leads to the question what is he worth?  Does he deserve to be paid among the top five players at his position?  Is he worth Larry Fitzgerald or Andre Johnson-type money?  An even better question is will the Eagles offer him that kind of money? 

I'm sure DeSean feels he's worth top five money at least.  So, let's do some statistical comparisons to who I consider to be the top five wide receivers in the league.  Since Jackson has only played three years so far, I will compare his first three seasons to their first three seasons, then look at 2010 stats and finally note the contracts they signed.

DeSean Jackson
5' 10", 175 lbs
Receiving: 171 catches for 3,124 yards and 17 TDs, 18.3 YPC  (yards per catch).
Rushing: 44 rushes for 337 yards and 3 TDs, 7.7 YPR (yards per rush).
Punt Returns: 99 for 1,112 yards and 4 TDs, 11.2 YPR (yards per return).
2010: 47 catches for 1,056 yards and 6 TDs, 22.5 YPC.  1 rushing and 1 punt return TD.

Larry Fitzgerald
6'3" 218 lbs
230 catches for 3,135 yards and 24 TDs, 13.6 YPC
2010: Age 27, 90 catches for 1,137 yards and six TDs.
In 2008, he signed a four-year, $40 million deal that included $30 million guaranteed.

Andre Johnson
6'3" 225 lbs
208 catches for 2,806 yards and 12 TDs, 13.4 YPC
2010: Age 29, 86 catches for 1,216 yards and eight TDs, 14.1 YPC
In 2007, he signed an eight-year deal for $60 million with $15 million guaranteed.  Then in 2010, he received a two-year extension worth another $38.5 million with $13 million guaranteed.

Reggie Wayne:
6' 198 lbs
144 catches for 1,899 yards and 11 TDs, 13.2 YPC
2010: Age 32, 111 catches for 1,355 yards and six TDs, 12.2 YPC
In 2006, he signed a six-year, $40 million deal with a $13 million signing bonus.

Roddy White:
6' 212 lbs
142 catches for 2,154 yards and nine TDs, 15.6 YPC
2010: Age 29, 115 catches for 1,389 yards and 10 TDs, 12.1 YPC
In 2009, he signed a six-year, $50 million deal with $18 million guaranteed.

Calvin Johnson
6'5" 236 lbs
193 catches for 3,071 yards and 21 TDs, 15.8 YPC
2010: Age 25, 77 catches for 1,120 yards and 12 TDs, 14.5 YPC
He is still on his rookie deal he received as the No. 2 overall pick in 2007. A six-year, $64 million deal with $27.2 million guaranteed.

The first thing that jumps out to me is that Jackson's YPC (yards per catch) is significantly better than the others.  He also has just as many touchdowns in his first three years as Fitzgerald had (though seven are from rushes and punt returns).  Statistically speaking, he looks just as good as the other five receivers, if not better. 

The only stat that shows where he trails the others is in receptions.  That coincides with the fact he is the home run hitter and not the possession receiver.  The other guys can be both, which is the main thing that separates them from DeSean, besides the obvious size differences.

Does size really matter?  (Where have I heard that question before?)  Well, for comparison's sake, lets find another wide receiver of similar size...Carolina Panthers' Steve Smith.  He is now a 10-year veteran, so lets take a quick look at his stats:

Steve Smith
5'9" 185 lbs
1st 3 years of career:
Receiving: 152 catches for 2,136 yards and 10 TDs, 14.7 YPC
Punt returns: 133 for 1,273 yards and four TDs, 9.5 YPR
Kick returns: 93 for 2,311 yards and two TDs, 24.8 YPR
2010: Age 31, 46 catches for 554 yards and two TD's, 12 YPC
In 2007, he had three years added to a six-year, $27 million deal he signed in 2004.  The new total became $45 million with an unknown amount guaranteed. Though, it was noted he did become the second highest paid receiver in the league that year.

Smith is slightly shorter and a little heavier which makes for a more compact build.  He looks "built" whereas DeSean just looks skinny.  Will that make a difference?  Possibly.  Smith has held up well physically and has only missed one season due to a broken leg.  His best years were 2003 to 2008, his third through eighth years when he was ages 24 to 29. 

Smith is the best comparison I can think of in terms of size, speed and explosiveness.  New England's Wes Welker is about the same size as Smith and has held up well.  But he is a great possession receiver and not the explosive threat like the other two guys.  The one thing about Smith is that he is both explosive and a go-to kind of guy.

Jackson is 24 and will be entering his fourth year and prime of his career.  A key factor the Eagles will look at when projecting his value will be his future as a punt returner.  You usually don't see star players being put at risk for injury in that manner.  Brian Westbrook used to return punts, but they took him off that duty once he became the featured running back. 

You have to figure that Jackson's role as a punt returner will be significantly reduced if not cut out all together within the next year or two.  With that said, we have to project his future worth as a receiver only.  That's what the Eagles will most likely do, and that's what they're fairly good at...projecting a player's worth.

So what is an explosive, home run hitting, one-dimensional (going forward), and a perpetual injury concern wide receiver worth?  There is no doubt that if Jackson were to hit the free-agent market, he would hit the jackpot.  However, if I'm going to pay Fitzgerald/Johnson-like money I'm going to want Fitzgerald/Johnson-like production, but that seems to be unlikely given his small stature. 

The Eagles will certainly offer him what they feel is a "fair" contract, probably something like a six-year, $45 million deal with around $15 million guaranteed (purely a guess on my part).  The problem might be that Jackson will want more, and that's where things will get dicey.

When looking at his stats, it's hard to argue that he doesn't deserve to be paid as a top-five receiver.  But when you think about his potential future production at the wide receiver position only, it's hard to envision him ever becoming a go-to kind of player.  He is what he is...a field stretcher and home-run threat...and that's what he'll always be. 

It's easier to pay big money to the other guys I've mentioned because they bring the total package at the receiver position.  Jackson, unfortunately, does not.  If you take away his deep routes you minimize his threat.

At best, I can't see the Eagles offering him any more than what Roddy White received in 2009.  Last year, Miles Austin received a six-year deal with $18 million in guarantees.  But there you go again, Austin brings the whole package as a receiver.  If Jackson wants to become the highest paid receiver in the NFL the Eagles will say goodbye, and he will become a free agent after next season, and that would be unfortunate for us fans.

I hope Jackson stays because I love seeing the big plays and how it energizes the team.  He and Jeremy Maclin complement each other well and make an excellent tandem.  As long as DeSean doesn't get greedy or let Drew Rosenhaus brainwash him into thinking he deserves the moon and the stars, I believe they'll get a deal done, and we'll be seeing Jackson for the next several years in an Eagle uniform.