2011 NBA Mock Draft: Prediction and Analysis of Every First Round Pick
While the Miami Heat and Dallas Mavericks prepare to commence the 2011 NBA Finals, the rest of the league's 28 teams are busy rummaging through film and scouting reports in preparation for the 2011 NBA Draft.
This year's draft class has been ridiculed as an extraordinarily thin one, and deservedly so. The draft is abnormally top heavy with European prospects, who, despite the hype and promise they present now, only rarely fulfill their potential overseas. Meanwhile, none of the American collegiate prospects appear poised to become the superstars we are accustomed to seeing atop the draft.
However, there is still a rich abundance of potential stars studded throughout this 2011 class, and here's a look at how the 30 first round selections might unfold.
1st Overall: Cleveland Cavaliers: Kyrie Irving, PG
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What the experts are saying: "As a freshman, PG Kyrie Irving proved he is a dynamic playmaker and facilitator capable of leading a team on both ends of the court. Fears about his toe injury are overblown, as he has no history of injuries nor does the injury appear to be lasting. With Byron Scott's track record of developing PGs, the Cavs would be foolish to pass him up." -- Joe Kotoch, Probasketballdraft.com
The Cavs won't be able to replace LeBron in a draft class devoid of a standout superstar; however, Irving might be the closest thing. Furthermore, Cleveland is in dire need of a point guard, and they can address their low-post game with their second lottery pick.
2nd Overall: Minnesota Timberwolves: Enes Kanter, C
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What the experts are saying: "It should surprise no one that Minnesota is entertaining offers for this pick. (Arizona forward Derrick) Williams is considered by most teams (including Minnesota) to be the best player available after Irving, but it’s hardly a fantastic fit. Michael Beasley has a similar skill set, and forward Kevin Love and swingman Wesley Johnson don’t appear to be going anywhere. One source says the Wolves have considered moving down a spot or two to take Enes Kanter while getting additional assets in a trade."--Sam Amick, Sports Illustrated
Trade rumors aside, Enes Kanter makes the most sense for the T-Wolves. Adding a premier center gives Minnesota a starting five comprised of five young, promising players who could grow together into a playoff caliber squad. Derrick Williams might be the best player on the board, but the last time David Kahn took a best player available approach, he ended up with Johnny Flynn and Ricky Rubio.
3rd Overall: Utah Jazz: Derrick Williams, PF
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What the experts are saying: A solid NBA player who will start, but not star in the NBA. He will struggle at times being a power forward in the NBA, but is not a small forward. Will give teams a terrible trouble with his ability to play on the outside and his good rebounding will cover for lack of size. Any open space and he will make the play."--David Locke, NBA.com
With Paul Millsap, Al Jefferson and Derrick Favors already in the fold, the Jazz are not in the market for another big man to further crowd and complicate their rotation. However, Williams' athleticism, sheer shooting skills and size (6'8") should allow him to play small forward in the NBA. Utah would not only benefit greatly from an upgrade at the three, but would have to jump at the chance to grab a player with All-Star potential.
4th Overall: Cleveland Cavaliers: Jonas Valanciunas, C
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What the experts are saying: "The Cavs would be fortunate to have C Jonas Valanciunas fall to No. 4 on draft night. At PBD (probasketballdraft.com), we believe Valanciunas has the most upside of any international player in this draft. Roughly 7-0 with a reported wingspan of 7-6, Valanciunas is a pesky defender who has drawn comparisons to Joakim Noah, but his offensive repertoire is much more sophisticated."--Joe Kotoch, Probasketballdraft.com
Now that the Cavs have locked up Kyrie Irving, they need to address a gaping hole at center. Valanciunas is a physical specimen who, while carrying the classic European buyer's beware tag, has the makings of an NBA stud. He plays with a feistier and more aggressive style than the average European prospect, and that bodes well for his NBA prospectus.
5th Overall: Toronto Raptors: Tristan Thompson, PF
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What the experts are saying: "Tristan Thompson is from the Toronto area. He played with the Canadian Junior National Team. He could go at five...I know they have Ed Davis, but [Thompson] is a better pro prospect than Davis. I think Thompson goes at five."--Doug Gottlieb, ESPN
Sometimes, a team's basketball outlook has to take a backseat to marketability and the good will of a franchise as a whole. This is one of those scenarios. The Raptors have been anonymous and irrelevant for years, and the departure of Chris Bosh will only depress a tortured fan base. Sure, Toronto is deep at power forward, but bringing in a Canadian native would ignite a spark and give the Raptors a true face to their franchise. Plus, Thompson has uncanny versatility and athleticism for a 6'8", 225 pound forward.
6th Overall: Washington Wizards: Jan Vesely, PF
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What the experts are saying: "I think the Wizards have to take a real good look at these bigs from Europe. There are a number of skilled forwards and centers who could be available at six... John Wall has already thrown his support for Kanter, but I've heard that the Wizards have been high on Vesely for some time. It'll be interesting."--Michael Lee, Washington Post
With budding superstar John Wall in the fold, the Wizards' primary focus and intent will be constructing a playoff caliber supporting cast. Outside of Wall (point guard) and center JaVale McGee, Washington needs to upgrade the rest of their starting five. San Diego State's Kawhi Leonard is an attractive option here, but Jan Vesely's upside is greater. He has tremendous size—6'11", 240 pounds—yet is freakishly athletic. He has a deadly jumper that will have some compare him to Dirk.
7th Overall: Sacramento Kings: Brandon Knight, PG
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What the experts are saying: "NBA execs seem to be leaning toward Brandon Knight over Kemba Walker when asked which point guard they prefer. I spoke to dozens of scouts and executives over the weekend and the majority of them had Knight ranked slightly higher because of his size, shooting ability and upside...Sources said if Knight slips to No. 5, the Raptors are likely to snag him there and there's no way he slides past the Kings at No. 7, I'm told."--Chad Ford, ESPN
Brandon Knight definitely deserves to go higher than seven, but based on the depth and desire for big men, he may slip to Sacramento. The Brandon Knight-Kemba Walker debate will rage until draft night, but Knight is a far better fit for the Kings. Sacramento already has a scoring assassin in Tyreke Evans, so they might prefer a savvy floor general like Knight who will yield to Evans and play more of a distributor role.
8th Overall: Detroit Pistons: Kawhi Leonard, SF/PF
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What the experts are saying: A power forward in college, he’ll likely be a small forward in the League, though his length and toughness should allow him to see some time at the 4-spot as well...The only downside is that he’s as raw as sushi on the offensive end. But between Gordon, Stuckey, Will Bynum and Charlie Villanueva, somebody will find a way to shoot...The Pistons are trying to rebuild, so the last thing they want to do is draft another Darko—someone whose game is based entirely on potential. Leonard can help right away and won’t do anything but improve on offense. They still have plenty of other issues to address, but that’s what free agency is for."--Quinn Peterson, SLAM
Kemba Walker and Bismack Biyombo are both enticing options for the Pistons here, but they are in desperate need of a big man capable of making an immediate impact, and Leonard fits the bill. He has only started to scratch the surface of his potential, and a 7'3" wingspan will allow him to fight for rebounds with the league's best.
9th Overall: Charlotte Bobcats: Kemba Walker, PG
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What the experts are saying: "One team reportedly very intrigued by Walker is the Charlotte Bobcats. According to ESPN.com, Bobcat owner Michael Jordan is a "big fan" of Walker's...The Bobcats have deeply missed Raymond Felton, who they let walk in free agency, handing the reins to D.J. Augustin who has been decent, but not consistently effective. Walker would seem to be a great fit because of his ability to score one-on-one (something Charlotte really needs), create (something Charlotte really needs) and shoot (something Charlotte really needs). He'd likely fit right in as the team's starter from day one."--Royce Young, CBS Sports
Considering Kemba Walker might be the most NBA-ready prospect in the 2011 Draft class, it's tough to envision him dropping all the way to nine; however, it's entirely plausible. He does not project as a pure point guard, but his 6'1" frame might restrict him from succeeding at the 2. Kemba could put a face to a largely irrelevant team, and more importantly, add a player with a Jordan-like killer instinct and scoring prowess.
10th Overall: Milwaukee Bucs: Bismack Biyombo, PF
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What the experts are saying: "The question for NBA teams is: Is Biyombo more Saer Sene (who once blocked nine shots in a Hoop Summit game and ended up as a top-10 pick) or is he Serge Ibaka? Given the evidence both in Portland and in Spain, where he's been playing significant minutes in the best pro league in Europe (the ACB), they're leaning strongly toward Ibaka."--ESPN
Biyombo might be the draft's fastest riser. At this rate, he could end up going as high as fifth overall to the Raptors. However, Biyombo is extremely raw, and teams will take a prudent approach to the African prospect due to the continent's small sample size of exports. A team like Milwaukee, on the cusp of becoming a playoff contender, can afford to develop Biyombo. He is one of the most sublime defensive prospects in years, and plugging him in alongside Andrew Bogut and Brandon Jennings could give the Bucks' their playoff formula.
11th Overall: Golden State Warriors: Marcus Morris, PF
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What the experts are saying: "The Warriors have a lot of front court needs, especially at the 5. But without a legit center available at this point, Morris is a serious option for them. His ability to play multiple positions and score the basketball both on the perimeter and in the post, plus his maturity level, make him a great fit in Golden State."--Chad Ford, ESPN
In a draft so loaded with foreign (hence very risky) big men, it wouldn't be a surprise if former Kansas star Marcus Morris emerges as the best of the class. Morris played at one of the nation's finest programs for three years, allowing him to hone and develop his skills against elite competition. The Warriors are only a handful of players away from the playoffs, and plugging a duel threat big man like Morris into the lineup next to the likes of David Lee, Stephen Curry and Dorrell Wright makes Golden State a threat in the West.
12th Overall: Utah Jazz: Jimmer Fredette, PG
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What the experts are saying: "This entry comes somewhat reluctantly, but a source who has spoken to the Jazz insists that they are seriously thinking about taking the BYU product this high. The departures of coach Jerry Sloan and Williams mean the business folks want a new addition about whom the fans can get excited. The basketball part would be challenging for new coach Tyrone Corbin, as the pressure to play Fredette even if he didn't always want to would be significant."--Sam Amick, Sports Illustrated
Sam Amick really sums this situation up perfectly. Even if Fredette is a major gamble who has 'bust' written all over him, Utah won't be able to resist his marketability. Jimmer would put thousands of butts in the seats—the ultimate goal of every franchise. And hey, maybe Jimmer will pan out. After all, he is one of the most dominant college basketball players of this era.
13th Overall: Phoenix Suns: Alec Burks, SG
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What the experts are saying: "The Suns are in that awkward spot between pushing for the playoffs and rebuilding. Burks takes them decidedly on the rebuilding track. He is one of the best athletes in the draft and should be a good long-term replacement for Vince Carter if he continues to work on his jump shot."--Chad Ford, ESPN
Amazingly, the Suns plummeted from Western Conference runner up to bottom feeder in the course of just one year. Steve Nash appears to be in the initial stages of his decline, but Phoenix still has a handful of valuable assets in Aaron Brooks, Jared Dudley and Robin Lopez. The Suns' primary need is a young scorer who can get to the rim, much like Nash has over the past few years. Burks averaged 20 points for Colorado last season and is definitely the best option for Phoenix here.
14th Overall: Houston Rockets: Markieff Morris, PF
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What the experts are saying: "Houston has depth at the 2 and 4 spots, which are the positions likely to have the most talent available at their pick. A trade is certainly a possibility. Markieff Morris would give them a Carl Landry type of PF to add depth. The Morris Twins have built a reputation for bringing intensity and toughness every time out. As long as no concerns arise about character, look for both twins to end up in or just outside the lottery."--Aran Smith, NBADraft.net
It will be very difficult to Daryl Morey to pass up lockdown defender Chris Singleton here. He could replace Shane Battier and provide an offensive upgrade for the team as a whole. But with Yao Ming possibly on the outs, Houston should make bolstering depth down low their top priority. Markieff is not regarded as highly as his brother Marcus, but with appropriate grooming, he should be a very solid player in the league.
15th Overall: Indiana Pacers: Klay Thompson
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What the experts are saying: "Klay has an NBA skill with his ability to shoot the ball. Lacks elite level athleticism but his length helps to make up for his lack of speed and leaping ability. Has a polished all around game. His marijuana charge at the end of the season isn't considered to be a huge detriment to his stock."--Aran Smith, NBADraft. net
The Pacers could use some front-court help here at 15, which makes trading up for a player like Markieff Morris plausible; however, a spot-up shooter in the back-court may be a greater need. Paul George has shown promise as a lethal perimeter shooter, but Indiana would benefit greatly from adding a Kyle Korver-like prospect in Klay Thompson.
16th Overall: Philadelphia 76ers, Donatas Motiejunas, C
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What the experts are saying: "Motiejunas might not be the prototypical big man the Sixers are looking for, but he's a good value this deep. There are questions about the 20-year-old's drive and lack of progress that appear to be pushing him in the wrong direction on the draft board."--Sam Amick, Sports Illustrated
Few players are tougher to gauge than Lithuanian center Donatas Motiejunas. No two mock drafts seem to have him landing in the same city, but many experts to seem to concur that Motiejunas has some kind of character and passion concerns. Despite his wild card status, Motiejunas is a seven footer with a deadly jump shot that would make him a very welcome addition in Philadelphia. He might not have the physicality they're looking for (also makes him a bust candidate), but the Sixers need to jump at the opportunity to land an elite prospect.
17th Overall: New York Knicks: Chris Singleton, SF
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What the experts are saying: "The Knicks will look to address their hole in the middle via free agency but Singleton adds much needed defensive intensity to the wings."--Ben Golliver, CBS Sports
"The Knicks are another team desperate for a defensive presence in the middle. Maybe Singleton can turn into a Tyson Chandler type. Then again, maybe not."--David Del Grande, CBS Sports
Mike D'Antoni has chosen to ignore the old "defense wins championships" adage in favor of a run 'n' gun offense for the duration of his career. And thus far, it has brought him zero championship rings. Even in such a high tempo offense, defense is an absolute necessity. Fortunately, Chris Singleton provides not only a lockdown defender, but also a very consistent perimeter shooter. Singleton might not be a deadly scorer, but the Knicks have Carmelo Anthony and Amar'e Stoudemire to take care of that.
18th Overall: Washington Wizards (from AtL): Jordan Hamilton, SF
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What the experts are saying: "I expect we'll be seeing Texas' Jordan Hamilton rising on boards in the next few weeks. NBA scouts have always loved his talent. They believe he's one of the few guys in this draft who could average 20 ppg in the NBA. He measured well for a small forward (6-8 with an 8-8 standing reach) and I'm told he was very good in interviews."--Chad Ford, ESPN
If the Wizards are lucky enough to scoop up Jordan Hamilton this late, they could boast an extraordinarily promising nucleus of talent. John Wall is the unquestioned focal point of the franchise, but Washington still needs another player who can score on demand. Jan Vesely could provide an excellent option in the post and on the perimeter, but Hamilton gives the Wizards another pure scorer who can get to the rim and finish.
19th Overall: Charlotte Bocats (via NO): Tyler Honeycutt, SF
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What the experts are saying: "Honeycutt was ranked in the high 20s at the start of the year, but sank on our big board after he struggled to really break out. He had a few big games for UCLA, but a lot of underwhelming ones as well. But NBA GMs and scouts have had a harder time scouting players in Ben Howland's system. Considering that virtually every prospect he's produced has gone on to have success in the NBA and when you factor in Honeycutt's significant skills, there's a very good chance Honeycutt ends up going somewhere in the first round."--Chad Ford, ESPN
With Kemba Walker in the fold, the Bobcats will have to begin building a strong supporting cast around him. Adding a complementary scorer would be an ideal first step, and although Tyler Honeycutt averaged only 12 points for the Bruins last season, he has the potential to become more potent in the NBA. Honeycutt specializes in distributing and creating plays for others, which could make him and Walker a deadly duo.
20th Overall: Minnesota Timberwolves (from MEM): Davis Bertans, SF
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What the experts are saying: "The Timberwolves opt for the draft's deadliest European shooter in Davis Bertans. Although he's a few years away, he could be a very intriguing option to stash overseas with the uncertainty regarding next year's season. Bertans impressed scouts with his feel for the game and desire on top of his tremendous shooting ability at the 2011 Hoop Summit."--Aran Smith, NBADraft.net
Like seemingly every white European prospect, Davis Bertrans is drawing Dirk Nowitzki comparisons. In all likelihood, he'll never achieve such success. Similarly, we probably won't see him in the states for a few years. At only 18, the Latvian forward will have to hone his skills in Europe for a few seasons before making an NBA impact. If his shooting prowess holds true, then Bertrans could be a great role player for Minnesota in the near future.
21st Overall: Portland Trail Blazers: Kenneth Faried, PF
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What the experts are saying: "The Blazers fell in love with Faried last year before he withdrew from the draft. If they are fortunate enough to get a second chance at him this year, they'll grab him. His relentlessness on the boards is a nice complement to LaMarcus Aldridge's more offensive-minded style."--Chad Ford, ESPN
Kenneth Faried became the darling of the NCAA Tournament after Morehead State shocked Louisville. The dread-locked forward put his defensive dominance on display for the entire country, and his draft stock catapulted. Faried is a rebounding machine who could help alleviate the slack left behind by Greg Oden.
22nd Overall: Denver Nuggets: Tobias Harris, SF/PF
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What the experts are saying: There aren't many freshmen, much less players, in the nation with the polish and feel for the game that Harris possesses. Tobias can do a little of everything with good vision, passing and ball handling abilities...His body needs better definition and his lateral speed isn't ideal. But he is an extremely bright kid with has a professional demeanor."--Aran Smith, NBADraft.net
Denver already has a few budding stars in Raymond Felton and Danillo Gallinari, so they don't need to acquire a stud in the draft. Instead, they need a versatile role player who can step down and play the 4. Harris has received wide praise as an extraordinarily well rounded player, and his skill set will be a welcome one in Denver.
23rd Overall: Houston Rockets (from ORL): Josh Selby, PG
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What the experts are saying: "After moving Aaron Brooks during the season, the Rockets find themselves weak at the PG position. Nolan Smith and Shelvin Mack are options, but Selby offers them a player with much more upside. He's a combo rather than a true point...Selby struggled to live up to his hype, but got caught in a situation where older players received playing time over him and could never get into the rotation."----Aran Smith, NBADraft.net
Even though Rockets point guard Kyle Lowry enjoyed a breakout season in 2010-2011, Houston needs to add depth at the position. Selby can not only do that, but he can also play the 2, providing the Rockets with plenty of versatility. Given ample grooming, Selby could grow into the dominant player Kansas hoped he would be.
24th Overall: OKC Thunder: Nikola Mirotic, PF
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What the experts are saying: "With a beautifully constructed rotation, the Thunder have the luxury of snapping up the best available European without worrying about the contract situation that could keep him overseas for awhile."--Ben Golliver, CBS Sports
Oklahoma City can essentially afford to go after anybody they choose here. The Thunder are stacked at virtually every position, so the most sensible move is a long-term, high reward developmental project such as Mirotic. He is under contract in Spain for another two seasons, so we won't hear from Mirotic for a while. But, based on the Thunder's incredible draft success, expect to see him making an impact once he comes overseas. The rich get richer.
25th Overall: Boston Celtics: Nikola Vucevic, C
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What the experts are saying: "The Celtics need size and Vucevic was one of the players who helped his draft stock the most the past week in Chicago. His measurements were off the charts and gave teams hope he could be a legit NBA center. Given his skill in the post, he could be a steal at this point in the draft."--Chad Ford, ESPN
Neither Shaq nor Jermaine O'Neal will be around for much longer, and Glenn Davis is slated for free agency. Naturally, adding youth in the front court must be the Celtic's top priority. Southern Cal's Nikola Vucevic is a massive seven-footer who has the kind of grit that would suit Boston well.
26th Overall: Dallas Mavericks: Reggie Jackson, PG
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What the experts are saying: "Reggie Jackson is a vocal floor general who can dominate games with his all-around play. His size, strength, athleticism, and rock solid fundamental skills set him apart...Defensively, Jackson is constantly coming up with big hustle plays, such as deflections and close-out blocks on perimeter shooters...As for intangibles, Jackson appears quite confident and always plays under control."--Andrew Hanson, MyNBADraft.com
An overall lack of big game experience and a failure to lead Boston College anywhere significant might have cost Reggie Jackson the chance to land in the upper half of the first round. However, Jackson is still a handsome prospect, especially for a team with a rapidly aging frontcourt like the Mavericks. Jason Kidd and Deshawn Stevenson will be on the outs soon, so drafting and grooming a guard like Jackson is the no brainer move for Dallas.
27th Overall: New Jersey Nets (via LAL): Justin Harper, PF
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What the experts are saying: "Harper fits a need for New Jersey. He is big and athletic and can shoot the ball with range. After experimenting with guys like Yi Jianlian and Troy Murphy in this role over the past few years, Harper is cheaper and has more upside."--Chad Ford, ESPN
With such a dearth of talent—and now a dearth of draft picks after the Deron Williams trade—the Nets must decide whether to take the best player available or draft for need. Or, perhaps they should draft whichever player they feel will persuade Deron Williams to sign a long term deal. Justin Harper might be the ideal prospect for this scenario. He would give Williams an offensive threat to resort to in the post, but can also contribute defensively.
28th Overall: Chicago Bulls (via MIA/TOR): Marshon Brooks
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What the experts are saying: "The Bulls have two picks at the end of the first and a need at the wing position. Brooks proved to be a deadly scorer this year at Providence and a handful to guard with the ball in his hands. He would get a lot of easy scoring opportunities playing next to the league's top point guard and MVP."--Aran Smith, NBADraft.net
In what might be the biggest steal of the draft, the Bulls scoop up Providence guard Marshon Brooks. He was unstoppable for the Friars in 2010-2011, averaging nearly 25 points and seven rebounds per game. Brooks is an aggressive player who could eventually dethrone Keith Bogans and provide Derrick Rose with some much needed complementary scoring.
29th Overall: San Antonio Spurs: Kyle Singler, SF
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What the experts are saying: "Incredibly intelligent, competitive forward who would kill to have the opportunity to play for Gregg Popovich."--Ben Golliver, CBS Sports
Kyle Singler just looks like a San Antonio Spur, doesn't he? A stud collegiate player who falls down draft boards for petty reasons only to surface as an unstoppable force in Greg Poppovich's system. Singler is potent from beyond the arch, but also plays with a fire and tenacity that could have him making an early impact for an aging Spurs squad.
30th Overall: Chicago Bulls: Nolan Smith, PG
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What the experts are saying: "Many NBA evaluators get caught into the "sexy" of a player's game rather than what he brings to the table in terms of production. That is where Nolan comes into conversation, to me, this kid has been one of college basketball's premier players from the last two seasons. I know he can be a asset to a NBA team if given a chance. No, he won't blow your mind with elite level athleticism but he has surprising play making skills that he has shown while leading the ACC in assist distributing the rock at a high volume."--Monta Williams, Blueprintscouting.com
Within all of the chatter about European prospects and their untapped potential, American collegiate stars such as Nolan Smith often get lost in the shuffle. He is a proven player—battle tested and developed. So while his ceiling might not be as high as some of the other guards, Smith will probably make for a great role player and maybe a starter one day. The Bulls need to add depth at guard behind Derrick Rose, and Smith might provide an upgrade over C.J. Watson.
