2011 NBA Draft: Jimmer Fredette and the 10 Riskiest Players with Bust Potential
Every NBA Draft is filled with its share of stars, sleepers and dreaded "busts." There’s no telling of where they will come from, but you can make an educated guess about who carries the shakiest game entering the league right off the bat. It may be that they are unproven, lack physical build, proper athleticism, size, basketball IQ or a combination of all the above. "Bust" is usually reserved for highly touted players in the top of the draft who don’t pan out and fail to live up to expectations, but it can come in the form of second rounder for a franchise for which a team is high on as a "sleeper," but never really achieve that potential.
This list is based on what players who are on the shakiest ground being drafted. I am going to get a lot of questions about why Enes Kanter is not on this list, so let me go ahead and tell you he’s proven. I saw his epic 34 point, 13 rebound performance in person at the Nike Hoop Summit back in 2010, and you don’t just dominate Jared Sullinger and many highly touted recruits in a fluke. He has all the tools to be a very good NBA player and relatively underrated prospect in this draft just because he was ineligible for NCAA play this season.
That said, SwishScout.com presents “The Riskiest Players in the 2011 NBA Draft.”
Note: On every player, you can click their name or country to take you to a more detailed profile for an extensive scouting report and highlights on the respective prospect.
Honorable Mention: Darius Morris (Michigan), Iman Shumpert (Georgia Tech), Andrew Goudelock (Charleston), Chandler Parsons (Florida)
10. Jeremy Tyler (Japan)
1 of 10
No one doubts his natural size, athleticism or talent, but maturity issues are going to factor in the most as to if a team is willing to select him. Went from relatively unknown to a potential first rounder after the Draft combine and is a player generating a fair amount of intrigue. All signs point to his character heading in the right direction and appear to have said all the right things in interviews. We won’t know for sure until he takes the court for an NBA team and interacts with teammates, but he’s a steal, even in the late first round, in my mind.
9. Bismack Biyombo (Congo)
2 of 10
Questions have arisen about his age, but whether he’s as younger or older than we think, he has an NBA skill set rebounding the ball and playing tough defense that translates at any level. He couldn’t hit the backside of a barn shooting the ball or put the moves on a player in the post, which is what makes him a work in progress. I have little doubts he can be effective in the NBA based on what he did to the top prep players in the 2011 Nike Hoop Summit, who will potentially populate a good portion of the 2012 NBA Draft in a deep talent pool. Still a risk and may take a years to get there like Serge Ibaka, but he’s a high caliber talent who will get there like Serge has, and then some.
8. Josh Selby (Kansas)
3 of 10
Another player with a world of talent, athleticism and potential, but had a nightmare season at Kansas that impressed no one. You could argue that he made the right choice leaving early, considering he wasn’t a great fit at KU, and with the potential strength of the 2012 Draft, he would have likely fallen. Questions arise as to if he has the mind set and game to manage a team at the point, or if he’s more of a true scorer. At worst, I think he’s an Eric Bledsoe type player with his explosive athleticism and scoring ability, but can give you contributions on the defensive end as well.
7. Lucas Nogueira (Brazil)
4 of 10
I’ve seen him play dominant against a group of prep standouts one night in the Nike Global Challenge and then completely fall flat against them the next. Nogueira has great size and length, but is very young and still experiencing the usual growing pains in his game. He’s a project at the next level who’s a few years away from being a contributor, but if a team can afford to patient with him, then it shouldn’t be a problem. Tremendous upside, but always the chance he doesn’t reach it. Subpar performance in the 2011 Nike Hoop Summit, but scouts still very high on him in the late first, early second round.
6. Davis Bertans (Latvia)
5 of 10
Another European player with incredible size and shooting fundamentals, Bertans is a youngster who is still developing physically and in terms of skill set. His upside is very high, but shot selection is sketchy, body needs time to fill out and needs more experience in game to grasp how to play within the team. The 18-year-old Bertans is a talent worthy of a late first round selection, but the team that takes him would be better served letting him develop overseas instead of riding the bench.
5. Scotty Hopson (Tennessee)
6 of 10
When an NBA team official warns his scouts at the NBA combine last week not to fall too in love with Hopson’s talents during workouts, you know something is up. Hopson is a natural scorer, but beyond that, he leaves a lot to be desired. There are a number of red flags on his game spanning from turnovers, selfishness and lack of defensive effort. He’s a player that doesn’t seem to get how to play within the team concept yet and never really reached his potential as many had hoped he would be know. If ever there was a question mark in the draft, Hopson is it, and he will pay for it by going in the second round.
4. Jimmer Fredette (BYU)
7 of 10
Some are very high, others not as much, and I am starting to fall in the latter of those two opinions. We’ve already taken an in-depth breakdown of his game earlier in the year and established he has talent to be a contributor as a shooter and instant scoring off the bench, but beyond that, it's up for debate. There’s no doubting he has a high basketball IQ, incredible shooting range and a killer crossover, and all of those translate. What makes him a potential "bust" is his high projected position in the draft (late lottery, mid-first round), limited upside, lack of athleticism, being undersized, adjusting to a lesser role, taking tamer shots and what position a team will team to use him at. That’s a lot of questions to address and he won’t "Jimmer" teams on a nightly basis in the NBA like he did in the NCAA, which is what many fans seems to be hoping for from him.
3. Cory Joseph (Texas)
8 of 10
I am just as puzzled as anyone that Joseph decided to enter the draft this season but have to assume he thought his stock would take a shot with Myck Kabongo filling in at PG for Texas next season and outshining him. As is, he does have a little bit of intrigue with his game in terms quickness, shooting and potential, but is years away from being ready for league play and looks destined for considerable time in the D-League. Honestly don’t see him being better than a role player or occasional fill in at starter for a team with injury problems. Projected to go in the mid-late second round, but he’s a risk that some teams can afford to take a chance on that late.
2. Jonas Valanciunas (Lithuania)
9 of 10
Jonas is an extremely intriguing yet very volatile big man in the 2011 Draft. The young Lithuanian prospect has unbelievable size and length for a post player, appealing to many teams because of his solid mobility, rebounding talents, shot blocking prowess and plentiful upside. Barely 19 years of age and a very raw player, Valanciunas could really end up being a shade below a Pau Gasol caliber post player or as underwhelming as Jason Smith. He plays in a European system that heavily utilizes the pick and roll, but his post up game is far below par for a player of his caliber. In addition to that, he could stand to add about 10 to 15 lbs. of muscle and needs to develop a reliable face up jumper. There’s also the ‘contract buy-out’ issue that lingers and makes drafting him, especially in the lottery, a big risk with an unknown timetable of when he can come over and play.
1. Jereme Richmond (Illinois)
10 of 10
If ever a player looked like he didn’t belong in the draft, JR is it this year. Tremendously raw on both ends of the floor, Richmond will be taken almost exclusively on athleticism and potential. He was an unproven player in the NCAA and really didn’t do much to impress scouts with his play. There are numerous questions ranging from shooting consistency, shot selection, inconsistency, creating ability and motives more making the jump so early.
Richmond is a former McDonald’s All-American and highly touted recruit, but during NBA combine workouts last week, he looked like he didn’t belong. His body is still maturing and basketball IQ is still developing, which he will need considerable time to arrive at. Looks bound for some serious time in the D-League and may have severely limited his growth in terms of skill set in the long run, as the NCAA is the ideal setting to foster player development for players who aren’t ready, which he isn’t.
If ever a player were a gamble and if I were to pinpoint a prospect in the draft with the least likely chance to make it and be in the league five years from now, my money is on Richmond, unfortunately.
