NBA Playoffs 2011: If Bulls Lose Game 4, Miami Heat Series Victory Guaranteed

When  the Chicago Bulls annihilated the Miami Heat 102-81 in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals, heavy criticism of the Heat began to spring up for the first time since their tough runs during the regular season:

Miami's not big enough.

Joakim Noah is going eat this team alive.

The Bulls' defense is too much for the Heat's simple offense to handle.

The MVP is going to will Chicago to the championship.

It turns out the Bulls didn't need LeBron James, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade after all.

So much can change in a week.

Miami stole home-court advantage from the Bulls with an 85-75 Game 2 victory and then won the first game back at the American Airlines Arena 96-85. The Heat are suddenly up 2-1 in the series and appear to be on cruise control with their past two wins against the upstart Bulls.

The two consecutive losses were the first for Chicago since early February, and their Game 2 loss was only their second loss at home all postseason.

One telling sign this series could begin to get out of hand has been the recent play of MVP Derrick Rose, who has not been able to penetrate the Heat defense.

Aside from his 28-point outburst in Game 1, he struggled to score 21 points (7-23) in Game 2 and 20 points (8-19) in Game 3. Despite being defended by Mike Bibby for the latter part of the game, Rose has been defended well up top and hasn't been successful in using pick and rolls. He also hasn't been able to shake Bibby—or any other players—who have defended him.

Nearly every Bull player has struggled since their Game 1 blowout.

Noah secured 14 rebounds in Game 1 and combined for only 13 in Games 2 and 3.

Luol Deng has a combined 27 points in Games 2 and 3 after scoring 21 in Game 1.

Not only that, but the entire Bulls' team has lost the ability to shoot three-pointers.

They had 10 in Game 1 and have combined for only eight in the last two contests.

Miami winning these battles has not stemmed only from the boost Udonis Haslem has provided, Bosh having his best games in a Heat uniform or even because of the Big Three's balance.

It's been more about the Heat defense.

Miami allowed the Bulls to shoot 44 percent in Game 1, 34 percent in Game 2 and 42 percent in Game 3.

Defense has been a key against a dynamic team like the Bulls. 

All season long, Rose found ways to slash through the toughest defenses, but he has not been able to break through a defense that runs Bosh, Joel Anthony and Haslem as its centers. The bigs in the middle converge on every Rose attempt, trying to make contact at the rim and throw him off without fouling—something Atlanta and Indiana previously couldn't do.

Of course, the series is still young and we can be singing a completely different tune by Tuesday's end.

Chicago will get another chance to take home-court back from Miami with a Game 4 win.

However, with Miami's lockdown defense and fluent offense featuring the slashing prowess of James and Wade—and Bosh hitting from just about anywhere—a Bulls' win is going to be extremely difficult on the floor of a team that has yet to lose a home postseason game.

The Bulls are going to need a team effort if they want to top the Heat at home.

The sole reason they took Game 1 by an overwhelming advantage was because of the 19-6 offensive rebounding disparity that allowed the Bulls to take 19 more shots than Miami. Chicago has done well on the boards since, but they haven't matched their Game 1 success.

Also, as long as Taj Gibson thinks he can talk to any player on the court as if he were a seasoned veteran, the Bulls are destined to fail.

Early in Game 3, Gibson jawed at Bosh during a play that eventually resulted in Gibson fouling Bosh. The two exchanged more words and before the Bulls knew it, Bosh had 34 points by the end of the night.

Game 4 is an absolute must-win matchup for Chicago.

Even though they'd have two more games back at the United Center, the Heat have proven they can win on the road.

Chicago will need to see a more complete effort on the boards from Boozer, Noah and Gibson, production from their sharp shooter in Kyle Korver and—most importantly—some production from Rose in the fourth quarter.

Rose attempted to play point guard in Game 3 and came up short on numerous occasions. He only attempted two shots in the last frame, which eventually led to the Heat taking full control with a 28-20 edge in the game's final 12 minutes.

When the best player on the team isn't playing to his standards, it's likely his team will come up short.

Miami is riding momentum after these two emotional wins and are now within reaching distance of their first NBA Finals appearance since 2006.

Game 4 will be the biggest game of the year for each team. A win for Miami would spell out a near guarantee of a Finals appearance. A Bulls' loss would only spell out the possibility of a long offseason.