Minnesota Twins: Who Takes the Blame for the Twins Fall?
The Minnesota Twins continue to struggle with the worst record in baseball. Their current .341 wining percentage is the worst in Twins history. The last time the Twins were even close to this bad was 1982 when they went 60-102—a .370 winning percentage.
Since Ron Gardenhire took over as manager in 2002 the Twins have only had one losing season—2007 when the team finished 79-83, in third place in the AL Central.
In 2011, everything has gone wrong.
Their .232 team batting average is better than only Seattle in the American League, the starting pitching has a 4.75 ERA, the worst in the league and their bullpen is ahead of only Baltimore and Detroit with a 5.34 ERA.
The next 20 games or so will be crucial to determine, not only the fate of this ball club's chances of a third straight AL Central Division title—which are slim at best, but the very makeup of the roster and perhaps the coaching staff.
Someone has to take the blame.
Whether it's the players, the manager, his coaches or the front office, someone will need to be held accountable for this precipitous fall the Twins have taken.
Manager Ron Gardenhire
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Could there be a curse with finally being named the American League Manager of the Year?
In the 111-year history of the Minnesota Twins/Washington Senators Ron Gardenhire ranks third in victories with 818.
Gardenhire is also the third longest tenured manager behind Bucky Harris who managed the Senators three different times for a total of 18 seasons, and Tom Kelly who guided the team for 16 seasons.
While Gardenhire's .545 winning percentage is better than Harris' (.485) or Kelly's (.478), the expectations may be greater because of his success—at least during the regular season.
The Twins also have spent more during Gardenhire's tenure on payroll. Currently with the ninth highest payroll in baseball has helped to fuel the expectations to make it past the divisional round of the playoffs.
Sure, there have been some key injuries to the team, but Gardenhire was able to manage around them in the past. Looking back to only last season, he guided the the Twins to a 94-68 record—the second most victories during his time as manager. He did this without All-Star closer Joe Nathan for the entire season and with former MVP Justin Morneau missing the last half of the season.
Gardenhire did not suddenly forget how to manage, but as the adage goes, you cannot fire the team.
If he cannot get the team to start playing Twins baseball again, his days could be numbered as the Twins manager.
Pitching Coach Rick Anderson
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The Twins starting rotation in 2011 is the same one that finished the 2010 season.
The 4.75 combined ERA for the Twins starters is the second worst since pitching coach Rick Anderson joined the team with manager Ron Gardenhire in 2002.
The larger problem has been the results out of the bullpen. The 5.34 ERA is more than a run higher than the 3.97 ERA of the 2004 team, the next highest.
The Twins are without the services of Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, and Jon Rauch, who combined to appear in 204 games last season. So far this season the Twins have used 17 pitchers, six different starters and 13 different relievers.
The return of Joe Nathan has not worked out like Gardenhire and Anderson had hoped when they named him the closer coming out of spring training.
One of the keys for the Minnesota Twins has been the ERA of their bullpen. Since 2002 there is an 82 percent negative correlation between their season win total and the bullpen ERA.
Using this correlation to extrapolate the Twins 2011 record predicts an even lower win total than that of the 1982 Twins that went 60-102.
Anderson is going to need to work his magic if the Twins have any chance of making a comeback this season.
Hitting Coach Joe Vavra
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From 2002 to 2005, the Twins had the fourth best batting average in the American League at .268 with Scott Ulger as the hitting coach.
However, in 2005, the Twins offense showed its third straight decline in batting average, dropping from .277 in 2003 to .259 in 2005. This prompted manger Ron Gardenhire to make a change and named Joe Vavra to replace Ulger.
Between 2006 and 2010, the Twins have improved to the second best average in the league at .276.
In his first year with the Twins, Vavra was able to improved the team batting average by 28 points to .287—the highest in Gardenhire's tenure.
The problem has been the 41 point hit the team batting average has taken so far this year compared to the .273 they batted in 2010.
This is the key for the Twins success.
The Cleveland Indians, who currently have the best record in baseball, and are more than 13 games ahead of the last-place Twins, also have the highest batting average in baseball.
Analyzing the data from 2002, there is a 91 percent correlation between the Twins batting average and their win total. If this is the best predictor for Minnesota success, then perhaps it's time to make another change at hitting coach.
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General Manager Bill Smith
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Minnesota Twins general manager Bill Smith could be sitting on the hottest seat of anyone.
Since taking over for Terry Ryan as the Twins GM in 2007 the payroll has increased from $71 million, the 18th highest in baseball, to $112 million in 2011—rising to ninth.
He has been given the revenue of a new ballpark to help return the Twins to championship glory.
Perhaps Smith and the Twins don't know how to spend their money wisely.
Granted, there was no way Smith would be able to remain in town without signing local hero Joe Mauer to a lucrative contract.
It's not his fault that there are several Twins who are not hitting their weight and playing anywhere as well as they did last season. But he needs to take the blame for not working to assemble a reliable bullpen, and for allowing our farm system to dwindle in talent that has the left the major league club looking like the Minnesota Red Wings, floundering with the worst record in baseball.
After the year Minnesota sports fans have endured between the Vikings, Wild and Timberwolves, the lure of a two-year old stadium will not be enough to pack the house if the Twins keep losing.
It's up to Smith to make something happen before the only option left is a fire sale as the team looks to rebuild for 2012.
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