Philadelphia Phillies: Ranking the Top 5 Pitching Prospects Thus Far in 2011

Without question, the Phillies have one of the greatest pitching rotations ever assembled.

Aces Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay may be in their 30s, but they are both very much in the prime of their careers and look to be entrenched in the Philadelphia rotation for the next five years. Likewise 33-year old Roy Oswalt, a former ace with the Houston Astros, looks to have some left in the tank while the youngest staffer, Cole Hamels, who is in his sixth year already, may be considered a top 10-to-15 starting pitcher in the majors at the end of this season if he isn’t already. It goes without saying that these four will be the heart of the Philadelphia rotation for quite some time.

Regardless of how the big club is doing, it’s always a good thing to continue developing your team’s future through the minor leagues, and the Phillies are doing just that. They’ve even got a trio of pitchers down in High-A deemed “The Next Three” by Phillies fans across the internet.

Here’s a look at my re-ranking of the Phillies’ pitching prospects about a month-and-a-half into the 2011 season:

Honorable Mention

David Buchanan

Seventh-round 2010 draftee, 22-year-old David Buchanan has become Low-A Lakewood’s most dependable starter and he is certainly outperforming his teammate, 2010 first-rounder Jesse Biddle. The right hander from Georgia State has a 5-1 record, 1.51 ERA and 0.881 WHIP to go along with a great walk rate (1.7 BB/9) and solid ground-ball percentage (45 percent). What has been more impressive, however, is his ability to pitch deep into games, throwing seven-plus innings in each of his last four starts, giving the BlueClaws a chance for victory in each of his outings.

Jesse Biddle 

Local 19-year-old and 2010 first-rounder Jesse Biddle has gotten off to a rough start at Low-A Lakewood this season. Finally getting his first win of the season last week, Biddle has a 5.57 ERA in 1.546 WHIP in part due to his 4.5 BB/9. He’s looked strong for the first three to four innings in many of his starts, but then loses command, ending his evenings early. Although it would be great to see awesome stats come August, this season is more about adapting to the grind of professional baseball.

5. J.C. Ramirez

Back in December 2009, the Phillies shipped then-team ace Cliff Lee to the Seattle Mariners for Phillippe Aumont, Tyson Gilles and JC Ramirez, with the team’s level of expectations for each prospect in that order. Ramirez is doing everything in his power this season at Double-A Reading to show he’s more than just “the third piece,” posting a remarkable 2.92 ERA and 1.050 WHIP, to go with five wins.

His April performance (4-0, 1.13 ERA) was good enough to net him the Phillies’ Minor League Pitcher of the Month award for April and that is good enough to bump him up to No. 5 on this list. He struggled through two starts early in May, but threw another outstanding eight-inning performance Sunday for his fifth win.

The 22-year-old Nicaraguan’s repertoire features a tremendous two-seam fastball that he dials up to the mid-90s, a plus-slider and a steadily improving changeup, the pitch that the Phillies asked him to work on most in 2010. The development or Ramirez’s changeup is honestly what will be the difference-maker between an MLB career as a starter or reliever.

So far in 2011, his strikeout numbers have shockingly dropped from a consistent seven to eight K/9 down to just 2.9, but Ramirez has said many times that he’s simply working on his fastball command and that he’s gotten a lot of hitters to roll over early in the count. He’ll continue to develop, and now at Double-A Reading, he’s just a hop and a skip away from the big-league club. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him up as a reliever in 2012 or back-end starter in late 2012 or early 2013.

4. Phillippe Aumont

After getting roughed up as a starter last season at multiple levels, it seems the Phillies have finally decided to let 22-year-old Phillippe Aumont run his career as a relief ace. The Canadian righty, who the Phillies acquired along with Ramirez in the Cliff Lee 2009 deal, has rebounded incredibly in 2011, posting a 3.50 ERA, 0.944 WHIP, 12.5 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 while splitting time with Justin De Fratus as the Double-A Reading closer. More importantly, his confidence looks to be back.

The intimidating Aumont, who towers at 6’7”, possesses a great mid-90s sinking fastball that he uses to pound the lower part of the zone, and a complementing breaking ball that rates as the top pitch in the Phillies’ organization. With closer uncertainty in Philadelphia, a solid, complete season of relief work down in Reading may prove Aumont ready for a big-league bullpen role as early as 2012. 

3. Jarred Cosart

Twenty-year-old Jarred Cosart, a 38th-round selection out of Clear Creek, Texas, has been a gem of a discovery for the Phillies over the past couple seasons. At times in 2011, Cosart has looked like the top pitching prospect in the Phillies' system, highlighted by his stellar showing on Sunday when he carried a perfect game into the seventh.

However, he’s been equally shaky at times in 2011, allowing five runs on eight hits over four innings of work in his previous outing. With Sunday’s dominant start, I have no problem calling Cosart the pitcher with the highest upside in the Phillies' organization (yes, even over the next two guys on this list), but a slight injury history (he visited Dr. Andrews last fall) and his inconsistency do raise some questions for me.

Cosart is primarily known for his dominant mid-90s fastball that has been rated as the best in the both the Phillies’ organization and even in all the minors by some scouts. He also utilizes an above-average power curve as an out pitch, and a changeup that simply needs some more work. With his durability questions and limited repertoire, many scouts project him for a relief ace role in the future, but I still think Cosart has what it takes to be a top-of-the-rotation starter.

2. Trevor May

Twenty-one-year-old right-hander Trevor May has looked exceptional as of late and has jumped the aforementioned Cosart for No. 2 on the list. In his second season at High-A Clearwater, May sits with a respectable 4.38 ERA and 1.30 WHIP through seven starts. However it’s his work over the last four that has caught the Florida State League’s attention. Over his last four starts, May has amassed an incredible 31 strikeouts over 23 innings to go along with a 2-0 record and 2.35 ERA. With a BB/9 of 3.91 over the stretch, he is by no means a control pitcher, but those are actually improvements over his 7.84 BB/9 rate in 2010.

The 2008 fourth-rounder’s pitch arsenal features three solid pitches: a standard 94-mph fastball with heavy sink, a sharp hammer curve and a straight change. Using a nice blend of power pitching and finesse, May has had extreme success getting the punch-outs with a K/9 above 10.5 in each of his last four seasons.

After struggling a bit in 2010 and getting demoted down to Low-A Lakewood to finish the season, May looks eager to continue improving and solidifying his spot in “The Next Three” alongside counterparts Cosart and Brody Colvin. 

1. Brody Colvin

Despite having pitched just two games so far in 2011, I still consider the tall 20-year-old righty from Louisiana the Phillies' top pitching prospect. After being forced to the disabled list with a lower-back injury just two innings into the season, Colvin returned to action Friday at High-A Clearwater only to give up four runs (three earned) on four hits in just 4.1 innings of work. Although the box score may not look great, reports indicated that he looked healthy which is all the organization can ask for.

The 2009 seventh rounder has a very low stress, fluid motion that allows him to dial up his fastball to the mid-90s with good natural sink. He’s also worked a circle changeup and very reliable breaking ball that could become a plus-pitch in the future.

Under the tutelage of Low-A Lakewood pitching-coach Steve Schrenk, Colvin looked solid last season, posting a 3.39 ERA and 1.30 WHIP with an exceptional 2.86 K/BB. He should continue to develop both mentally and technically as he ascends through the Phillies’ organization, and he could very well be filling out the back of the big-league rotation by 2014.