Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2011 Schedule: A Look at the Out-of-Division Slate
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers could have their hands full in 2011.
Sharing arguably the toughest division in the NFL with the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints, the top seeds from each of the last two seasons’ NFC playoffs, is tough enough, but the rest of the schedule might not be as forgiving as once forecasted.
Thank goodness for the Carolina Panthers.
Division games are always must-win, especially when double-digit wins gets you third place in the division and a first-string armchair quarterback spot in January.
Based on 2010 win-loss records, the Buccaneers have the 18th-most difficult schedule in 2011, as their opponents were a combined 127-129. They play only five teams who recorded double-digit wins in 2010, including the Super Bowl champions from the last two seasons in the Saints and Green Bay Packers.
In all, they have seven games against double-digit-win teams from 2010.
Doesn’t sound like a tough row to hoe.
But the Buccaneers were one of those teams last season on everyone else’s schedules. They were circled in training camp as a win. An easy week. A notch on the bedpost.
But those teams don’t exist on the Buccaneers’ 2011 schedule. Even the Panthers have something to prove with a new head coach, a freakishly athletically talented quarterback coming in with the expectations of a top overall pick and nothing to lose.
With division games surely must-win, here is a look at teams the Buccaneers face outside the NFC South in 2011.
Week 1: Detroit Lions
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Payback’s a bitch.
The Buccaneers fell short of the playoffs by a single game in 2010, finishing 10-6 and losing a tiebreaker with the eventual Super Bowl champion Packers.
And it’s all because they came up short hosting the Lions in Week 15.
Okay, there were other games they could have won to put them over that hump, such as two close meetings with the division-winning Falcons and a 17-10 loss at the Baltimore Ravens, but the overtime affair with the upstart Lions was what ultimately packed the Buccaneers' offseason bags.
While some point to a pass interference call that nullified a Kellen Winslow touchdown in the fourth quarter to blame for the loss (the Buccaneers settled for a game-tying field goal), the game should not have been that close.
The Lions, just 3-10 going into the game, were on a 26-game road losing streak.
While all streaks must come to an end, it came at a most inopportune time for the Buccaneers.
But the 2011 Lions will look much different. Quarterback Matthew Stafford will likely start the season healthy, and their first-round pick, defensive tackle Nick Fairley, will join reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year, Pepsi NFL Rookie of the Year and Pro Bowler Ndamukong Suh on the defensive front.
The Buccaneers turned a 3-13 campaign in 2009 into a 10-6 season the following year.
The Lions could be the next turnaround story.
It’s Week 1. You open at home. Months of labor uncertainty and speculation bring unparalleled excitement into this season. Get your season off on the right foot—put the Lions in their place in the process.
Week 2: @ Minnesota Vikings
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Remember those “choose your own adventure” books, where you can make decisions for the protagonist and skip to the page that goes with your selection?
Well, if the Buccaneers lose in Week 1 to the Lions, skip straight to Week 2 to find a must-win out-of-division affair, because starting 0-2 in the toughest division in football is not a comfortable early-season climate.
If the Buccaneers win in Week 1, the tilt with the Vikings will still be crucial, as the Buccaneers host the Falcons and Indianapolis Colts in subsequent weeks before taking the ever-arduous west-coast trip to face the 49ers in Week 5.
Is it me, or could that have 0-5 written all over it if the Buccaneers can’t pull out wins in the first two weeks?
And then they get the Saints and Chicago Bears after that, to boot.
The Vikings are a team in flux at the most crucial position. Tavaris Jackson is not the answer at quarterback. If he were, a Viking entourage would not have flown to Mississippi to plead for Brett Favre's return in 2010.
If Christian Ponder is ultimately the answer, he certainly won’t be by Week 2.
Perhaps a Donovan McNabb trade would shake this scenario up a bit, but Vikings fans will have to wait.
The Vikings are coming off a 6-10 season in a year in which they had Super Bowl aspirations. With a stout, but aging defense and questions at quarterback, the window of opportunity could be inching close for the Vikings.
Week 4: Indianapolis Colts
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The Colts have not been to Raymond James Stadium since Week 5 of 2003.
You remember, don’t you?
It was Monday Night Football. It was Tony Dungy’s return to Tampa Bay on the heels of the Buccaneers winning Super Bowl XXXVII with Jon Gruden steering a ship largely built by Dungy.
And in the fourth quarter, it looked like Gruden would get the best of Dungy and the Colts.
With four minutes left in the fourth quarter and trailing the Buccaneers 35-14, though, Peyton Manning had other ideas.
Manning led the Colts back from the 21-point deficit to send the game into overtime.
In overtime, Colts kicker Mike Vanderjagt missed a 40-yard field goal, but Simeon Rice was hit with an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty for leaping—jumping to block a kick and landing on other players—and Vanderjagt got another shot.
His subsequent attempt was batted at the line and struck the upright, but squeezed in anyhow, completing the comeback and dropping the defending Super Bowl champs to 2-2.
Dungy has since retired and Manning has had his struggles, but the Colts are still the same perennial Super Bowl contender they have been for the last decade, and after reliving their monumental Monday-night comeback in 2003, I believe we've heard enough about those guys.
Let’s just say the Buccaneers will be looking for a bit of redemption in this one.
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Week 5: @ San Francisco 49ers
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The Buccaneers did something in 2010 they had not done since 1980.
Win in San Francisco.
The 6-3 Buccaneers had not fared well historically when making trips to the west coast, but the defense helped reverse those fortunes.
The Buccaneers accounted for nearly a quarter of their season sacks in a 21-0 rout, sacking Troy Smith six times and dealing the 49ers their first home shutout loss since 1977.
They’ll get a much different 49ers squad in 2011, led by new head coach Jim Harbaugh and likely with Alex Smith under center, to whom Harbaugh has pledged his early loyalty.
While 2010’s performance at San Francisco will be tough to replicate, the Buccaneers sure could use a win in this one, as they’ll be coming off games against the Falcons and Colts and facing tilts with the Saints and Bears in the following weeks before hitting the bye in Week 8.
Sandwiched between those four games, this game could prove crucial to determining the Buccaneers’ early playoff trajectory.
Week 7: Chicago Bears
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Twelve wins might not win the NFC South in 2011.
Since the Buccaneers play seven games against double-digit winners from 2010, they must steal a few from this upper echelon to have a shot at winning the division.
Allocate four of those seven against double-digit-win teams to the Falcons and Saints, and that leaves Indianapolis Colts, Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers.
Who is the most suspect of these three teams?
Well, it’s not the Packers. They may have the best chance to repeat than any team in recent memory. The Colts are the Colts and Peyton Manning is Peyton Manning. Period.
And Jay Cutler is Jay Cutler.
And for this one, the Buccaneers will head to London, England. The Buccaneers have a surprisingly strong following in England, but that doesn’t make it a home game.
Sure, the Buccaneers did not fare well in their UK debut, falling to 0-7 in 2009 after a 35-7 beating at the hands of the New England Patriots, but who’s counting?
The Bears will be coming off back-to-back division games. With all the effort put forth in the last two years to bolster the pass rush, what better time to reap the benefits than by trouncing the most-sacked quarterback from a year ago?
Week 10: Houston Texans
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The Texans have never made the playoffs. Hell, they’ve only had one winning record in their nine-year history. They're 1-1 all time against the Buccaneers and 0-1 at Raymond James Stadium.
They’ll be looking to get over that playoff hump in 2011, and head coach Gary Kubiak’s job certainly depends on it.
It’s quite simple as to what this game will come down to: Arian Foster vs. the Buccaneers run defense.
Foster surprisingly burst onto the scene in 2010, leading the NFL with 1,616 rushing yards and tacking on an NFL-best 16 touchdowns on the ground, and it all started with a 231-yard, three-touchdown performance in Week 1.
The Buccaneers, meanwhile, boast the league’s 28th-ranked run defense from a year ago, although they did show signs of improvement down the stretch.
If first- and second-round picks from 2011 Adrian Clayborn and Da’Quan Bowers have not shown what they’re capable of by this time, perhaps this would be a good time to schedule a coming-out party.
Week 11: @ Green Bay Packers
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Let’s see—the Packers are the defending Super Bowl champs. The Buccaneers travel to frigid Green Bay for a late-November game, a place they have won only once since 1989.
Let's just say the Buccaneers had better hope for a Super Bowl hangover.
Week 12: @ Tennessee Titans
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Vince Young should be gone (allegedly). First-round pick Jake Locker could be the starter by Week 12. The Titans have done little thus far to bolster their passing attack.
But Chris Johnson is still lurking.
It all goes back to the Buccaneers run defense in this one. If you can’t stop Chris Johnson, you can’t stop the Titans. Period.
Johnson rattled off 1,364 yards on the ground in what many called an off-year for the explosive running back in 2010.
But the Titans finished the season just 6-10.
And while allowing Johnson to eclipse the 100-yard mark doesn’t necessarily spell doom for opposing teams (the Titans were 5-3 in 2010 when Johnson went for 100-plus yards), keeping him out of the end zone is crucial, as he scored a combined eight touchdowns in those five wins and just two in the three losses combined.
In his career, the Titans have only lost once when Johnson scores multiple touchdowns.
Week 14: @ Jacksonville Jaguars
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Good teams win late in the year in the NFL.
Great teams win on the road in December.
One of the Buccaneers’ two December road games in 2011 takes them to Jacksonville before they cap the season on New Year’s Day in Atlanta.
The Buccaneers and Jaguars have not played since 2007 when the Jaguars escaped Raymond James with a 24-23 win. They haven’t played at Jacksonville since a 17-10 loss on Sunday Night Football in 2003.
They are 1-3 all time against the Jaguars and have never won at Jacksonville.
But that’s ancient history.
Plain and simple: It’s tough to win in January if you can’t win in December. And with the Colts and Cowboys coming to town and with a home game outsourced to London leaving them with just the Lions and Texans on the out-of-division home slate, road wins will be crucial if the Buccaneers want to improve on their 10-6 record from 2010 and make a legitimate playoff run.
Three of the Buccaneers’ last four games are on the road. That stretch starts in Jacksonville.
Week 15: Dallas Cowboys
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The 6-10 Cowboys from 2010 are not the team coming to Raymond James Stadium in Week 15 of 2011.
They will be a much different bunch.
They’ll be much closer to the squad that came into Tampa Bay in the opening week of 2009 and trounced the Buccaneers, 34-21. It’ll be head coach Jason Garrett in his first full season with something to prove to a meddling owner. It’ll be Tony Romo coming off a broken collarbone with a Texas-sized chip on his shoulder after the Cowboys went 5-5 down the stretch with Jon Kitna under center after Romo’s 1-4 start.
Few have more to prove in 2011 than the Cowboys.
The fact that after this is the Buccaneers' last home game before closing the season out with back-to-back divisional road games makes this a virtual must-win.
The first is a winnable game at Carolina. The second, however, is a trip to Atlanta to face the reigning division champion Falcons in what could be, if the season goes as the Buccaneers plan to that point, a battle for either the NFC South crown or a playoff spot.
Don't falter down the stretch.
After their Week 8 bye, the Buccaneers have six road games and just three at home. The home games (vs. the Texans, Panthers and Cowboys) will be key for a late-season playoff push.
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