2011 NBA Draft Lottery: 15 Bold Predictions on the Eve of the Lottery
The 2011 NBA Draft Lottery is nearly upon us, giving table-top athletes and serial bingo players a one-night reprieve from being the most important purveyors of ping pong balls.
This year's edition of the lottery selection carries with it some particularly interesting potential outcomes. Beyond the Cleveland Cavaliers seeking out their next franchise star and the dearth of top-tier talent in this draft class, the prospect of an impending lockout will rule the headlines, as the 60 young men who are fortunate enough to be selected might not even have the privilege of playing in their first NBA games until 2012.
With that in mind, here are 15 storylines that are likely to emerge from the proceedings of the June draft.
Kyrie Irving Will Go No. 1
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What better place to start than at the very top of the draft, where Duke's Kyrie Irving will be the first overall pick.
That's right—whoever lands that lucky ping-pong ball will overlook Derrick Williams' talents and Irving's foot injury to select the one-year Blue Devil wonder.
And rightfully so; Irving was arguably the best player in college basketball this past season when he was healthy and has all the ability in the world to be the NBA's next great franchise-defining lead guard.
Points Guards Will Dominate the Top of the Draft
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Kyrie Irving certainly won't be the only point guard taken early in the draft.
Three of the top five picks could very well be spent on ones—Irving, UConn's Kemba Walker and Kentucky's Brandon Knight—while others, like Jimmer Fredette, Duke's Nolan Smith and Michigan's Darius Morris, figure to go in the first round.
And with Derrick Rose doing what he's done so far for the Chicago Bulls, don't think that other victory-starved teams won't jump at the chance to draft players hoping to get in on the action in a league where the center of gravity continues to shift closer and closer to the point guard position with each passing year.
Cleveland Cavaliers Find Foundation for Future of the Franchise
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If last offseason was the Summer of Betrayal, then the coming months may very well be the Summer of Redemption for the forlorn fans of Cleveland.
The Cavaliers possess two lottery selections in this year's draft, both of which will be in the top 10 should there be no movement whatsoever after the ping-pong balls have all been picked.
The Cavs figure to use their first pick on the best player available, which may change depending on how the balls bounce for them and how their evaluations turn out.
Aside from the possibility of taking Derrick Williams or Kyrie Irving at the top, the Cavs could go nostalgic in the first round by selecting either Jonas Valanciunas or Donatas Motiejunas—both young big men who hail from Lithuania, the home country of former franchise staple Zydrunas Ilgauskas.
Sacramento Kings Take Point Guard to Displace Tyreke Evans
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The Sacramento Kings should find themselves with a top-five pick when all is said and done on Tuesday, which they seem likely to spend on a backcourt mate for talented but troubled guard Tyreke Evans.
Kemba Walker would be a perfect fit here, providing the Kings with a true point guard who can take pressure off the former Rookie of the Year and allow him to be a scorer first and a creator second.
Whether that will be enough to keep the team in Sacramento remains to be seen.
Utah Jazz Win Again
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Somehow, the Utah Jazz, like the New England Patriots in the NFL, always seem to end up with better draft picks than their previous year's record would suggest they should have.
The Jazz will pick twice in this year's lottery after snagging Gordon Hayward with the ninth overall pick last time around.
Look for the Jazz to take a strong look at a point guard like Brandon Knight or Jimmer Fredette and perhaps an international player like Donatas Motiejunas or Bismack Biyombo with their first choices.
International Bigs Crash the Top 10
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It's been a while since the NBA draft has seen such an influx of international talent, and perhaps even longer since general managers around the league were willing to risk high draft picks on kids with big names and even bigger question marks.
That figures to change to some extent this year. Aside from the aforementioned Lithuanians, the crop of draft-eligible big men from overseas is rather deep, including Turkey's Enes Kanter, who was slated to play for John Calipari at Kentucky before the NCAA banned him, Jan Vesely from the Czech Republic and Bismack Biyombo of the Congo.
That's not to say that any of these players will pan out as top-10 picks, only that there is a distinct likelihood that most, if not all, of them go early and often in the draft.
Minnesota Timberwolves Stock Up at One Position...Again
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By virtue of finishing the 2010-11 season with the worst record in the NBA, the Minnesota Timberwolves once again have a tremendous opportunity to come away with the first overall pick in the draft.
And even if they don't, they stick might very well spend both of their first-round picks on one position—a strategy that general manager David Kahn has employed in each of his first two drafts, to mixed results, at best.
This year, that lucky position figures to be power forward, as this year's class is fairly replete with big guys with face-up skills.
In short, then, don't think the T-Wolves won't jump for someone like Florida State's Chris Singleton or Tennessee's Tobias Harris even if they land Derrick Williams at the top.
Kawhi Leonard Turns Out Better Than Derrick Williams
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Speaking of Derrick Williams, the sophomore forward out of Arizona rode a striking showing in the NCAA Tournament all the way to the top of the class, where he figures to be when commissioner David Stern announces the first few picks on draft night in June.
However, that title by no means guarantees that Williams will turn out to be the best prospect at his position, much less of the entire draft.
There are some who think San Diego State's Kawhi Leonard will make a better pro than Williams, especially after watching Leonard work out in Las Vegas. Unlike his Pac-10 counterpart, Leonard is not a 'tweener, but rather a full-blown small forward with plenty of all-around ability to pitch in time at a number of other positions on the floor.
Add in a surprisingly smooth jumper and some serious athleticism on defense, and Leonard looks more and more like the sure bet to be a solid NBA player before Williams is.
Jimmer Fredette = Stephen Curry
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Tell me if this sounds at all familiar.
A shoot-first point guard from a small conference school captures the imagination of the basketball world by regularly nailing three-pointers from 30 feet out and stunning his opponents with prodigious point totals.
Fans today will undoubtedly think first of BYU's Jimmer Fredette, but the same could have just as easily been said and certainly was of Stephen Curry back during his days at Davidson.
Curry's success in the NBA thus far bodes well for the future prospects of Fredette, whom teams will likely utilize in the same way the Golden State Warriors have employed Curry thus far.
Small Conferences Make a Big Splash
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Jimmer Fredette and Kawhi Leonard both hail from the Mountain West, but they are far from the only players from non-BCS conferences that will be off the board before the end of the first round.
The list of likely early draftees from small schools this year also includes Shelvin Mack of Butler and Kenneth Faried of Morehead State.
Additionally, Cleveland State's Norris Cole is currently projected as an early second-rounder but has the look of an impact player at the professional level.
Tyler Honeycutt, Other Swingmen Watch Draft Stock Tumble
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As previously mentioned, there is something of a glut of multi-talented forwards in the 2011 NBA Draft, which ultimately means that some of them will have an unexpectedly long wait in the green room ahead of them.
Among those set to have their nerves frayed is UCLA's Tyler Honeycutt. Scouts fell in love with Honeycutt's nose for the ball, athleticism and feel for the game during his two years as a Bruin, though some figure to hold off on a turnover-prone kid with a streaky shot and instead opt for a player with a similar but steadier profile, like Texas' Jordan Hamilton, Georgia's Trey Thompkins or either of the Morris twins from Kansas.
Chicago Bulls Seek Scoring Guard in First Round
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Not that there aren't teams at the bottom of the first round who wouldn't mind a player of Honeycutt's caliber falling into their laps.
The Chicago Bulls are one such team, with the 28th and the 30th picks in the draft to spend on a swingman to replace the lukewarm Keith Bogans as Derrick Rose's backcourt buddy.
Of course, that might not matter too much should the Bulls come away with the Larry O'Brien Trophy this year, though adding a young guard with legitimate scoring ability, like Honeycutt or Illinois' Jereme Richmond, would only seem to help Chicago's prospects of being a top-tier title contender year in and year out for the next decade or so.
Los Angeles Lakers Dump Some of Their Second-Round Picks
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The Bulls' path to the NBA title became that much clearer when the Los Angeles Lakers got swept out of the Western Conference playoffs by the Dallas Mavericks.
The Lakers will look to fill out their aging roster with some youth in the upcoming draft, in which general manager Mitch Kupchak will have four picks in the second round to work with.
And while he may use one or two of those selections on high-value prospects with a shot at hanging onto the fringe of the Lakers' roster, Kupchak will presumably package at least one or two of those picks with some of his other available pieces to upgrade LA's roster, perhaps even in pursuit of Dwight Howard or Chris Paul.
Washington's Isaiah Thomas Goes Undrafted
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It happens pretty much every year—a group of ambitious young basketball players forgo their remaining college eligibility for a shot at the NBA draft only to watch in discouragement as each of the 60 picks passes without even a whisper of their names.
This year's draft will be no different in that regard, with prospects like Washington's Isaiah Thomas and Georgia Tech's Iman Shumpert—terrific college players to be sure—jumping early into what appears to be a chasm of draft-day disappointment.
Thomas, in particular, has the potential to be a productive pro, but at a generously-listed 5'9" is a bit on the diminutive side for a scoring guard, to say the least.
2011 NBA Draft Is Short on Stars, Long on Productive Players
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All in all, the 2011 NBA Draft has caught a ton of flack from analysts for being an unusually weak crop, even before big names like Jared Sullinger, Harrison Barnes, Perry Jones and Terrence Jones decided to give it the ol' college try by sticking around as student-athletes for their sophomore seasons.
And while the somewhat strange decisions of these players and others to stay in school may have robbed this year's draft class of future stars, they haven't diminished entirely the potential productivity that the remaining players will bring to the table.
Sure, there may be no franchise-type guys outside of Kyrie Irving and Derrick Williams, but too much focus on what there isn't in the 2011 NBA Draft would be a disservice to guys like Purdue's JaJuan Johnson and Washington State's Klay Thompson, who, along with a number of others, will be productive and reliable contributors in the NBA who, with some good fortune, will make an appearance or two at NBA All-Star Weekend before their playing days are over.
