NBA Draft 2011: 10 Dark Horse Prospects That Could Land in the Lottery
The NBA draft lottery is on Tuesday, and in about a month we will tune in to the 2011 NBA draft. The pre-draft lottery will determine the draft order of the teams who did not make the playoffs, and by 9 pm on Tuesday we will know who owns the first overall pick. The lottery consists of the first 14 picks in the draft.
While I could go on and on about the sure-thing lottery picks like Duke's Kyrie Irving, Arizona's Derrick Williams or UConn's Kemba Walker, I would instead like to talk about a different group of people. Rather, I would like to discuss guys like Duke's Nolan Smith (pictured above) and others who will probably be taken in the first round, but most likely after the lottery picks.
These are players who were amazing on the college level but whose transition to the NBA might not be as smooth as some others. Here are 10 dark-horse players who just might crack the lottery if the teams in that group decide to gamble.
No. 10: Jimmer Fredette, Brigham Young
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Jimmer Fredette had an amazing senior season at BYU. He led the nation in scoring, averaging 28.9 points per game, and was instrumental in leading the Cougars to another trip to the NCAA tournament. After his performance there, he was expected to be a top-five pick.
Yet in the past couple of weeks, Fredette's stock has fallen. It seems that with each day that goes by, he becomes exposed as just another shooter. With the one-sidedness of his game, his chances of cracking the lottery fall.
Still, he's electrifying enough of a shooter that a lottery team in desperate need of a three-point threat will take a chance on him.
No. 9: Chris Singleton, Florida State
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Chris Singleton has all of the qualities a coach hopes for. He is a decent shooter, plays tough defense and, most importantly, can be a leader.
Singleton exhibited these qualities well his junior year, averaging 13.1 points, 6.8 rebounds and even 1.5 blocks per game. Keep in mind, he's 6'9" and 225 pounds blocking that many shots.
Yet Singleton's draft stock fell before the tournament even began. He broke his foot in the Seminoles' game against Virginia on February 12 and missed five weeks before coming back for the tournament despite not being fully healed. He was virtually a non-factor in his team's two tournament wins against Texas A&M and Notre Dame.
Singleton, at this point, may be selected just after the lottery picks. Yet don't count him out just yet. Lots of teams in the lottery need a defensive forward who can also turn on the afterburners on offense, and Singleton does just that.
No. 8: Tobias Harris, Tennessee
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When I watch Tobias Harris play, I see a player reminiscent of Duke-era Shane Battier. This guy shoots the ball well and plays great defense. It is that comparison that makes it hard to believe he will be a lottery pick.
Harris averaged 15.3 points and 7.3 rebounds per game last season, but that was as a freshman. With sanctions looming for Tennessee, it kind of makes sense why he declared for the draft after just one year of college ball. However, this is also why lottery teams may pass on him.
Still, Harris has a lot of potential. With the right coach, he could blossom into an effective player on both sides of the hardwood.
No. 7: Reggie Jackson, Boston College
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Let's establish this right now: Reggie Jackson is not an NBA point guard. In three years at BC, he only averaged 3.5 assists per game while averaging 12.7 points. He broke out his junior year, averaging 18.2 points with an astounding three-point field goal percentage of 42 percent.
That being said, Jackson is a glorified shooter who has very small first-round potential. Still, I'm going to label him the Christian Ponder of this year's NBA draft. Translation: He isn't a first-rounder on paper, but there might be a lottery team out there just crazy enough to gamble on him.
No. 6: DeAndre Liggins, Kentucky
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Unlike his teammates Brandon Knight and Terrence Jones, DeAndre Liggins is not a player whose talent jumps out at fans. He is an effective guard but is known for little else besides his three-point shot. As a junior, he averaged 8.6 points while making 42 percent of his three-pointers. Over his college career, he averaged a mere 5.5 points per game.
That being said, I'm only anticipating one lottery team to pick Liggins should it choose to do so: the Minnesota Timberwolves. He could be their replacement for Jonny Flynn and potentially Ricky Rubio. With only one team that could possibly gamble on him, Liggins is truly a dark horse.
No. 5: Keith Benson, Oakland
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Keith Benson is a great player who went to a small school, and that puts him at a disadvantage compared to the other big men/centers in the draft.
As a senior, he averaged 17.9 points and 10.1 rebounds along with an astounding 3.6 blocks per game. That being said, it's no surprise that Oakland was among the top rebounding teams in college basketball.
Benson has average size at 6'11" and 230 pounds, so that could be one mark against him. On top of that, he didn't play in a particularly competitive league and thus will potentially struggle against top talent on the professional level.
Still, it doesn't take away from the fact that Benson can be a dominant defender. Many lottery teams need one of those, so keep an ear open for his name during the first 14 picks.
No. 4: Shelvin Mack, Butler
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Shelvin Mack's junior season reminds me a lot of Tyrus Thomas' lone year at LSU. Overall average, but an exceptional tournament causes a potentially premature entrance into the NBA draft.
Mack averaged 16 points per game last season but averaged 20.3 in the tournament and helped Butler reach its second consecutive NCAA tournament final thanks to his three-point shooting.
As much as I love Mack, his 6'3", 215-pound build and total lack of defense that comes with it will make it hard for him to play in the NBA. Still, some of the lottery teams need tough three-point shooters with good leadership qualities. Fortunately for Mack, he is just that.
Don't be surprised if a team like Charlotte or Houston gambles on him in the lottery.
No. 3: Darius Morris, Michigan
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Darius Morris is an interesting player. He has decent height for a point guard at 6'4" but is a little undersized at a skinny 190 pounds. Still, the sophomore Wolverine averaged 15 points and 6.7 assists per game this past season. He also shot an amazing 49 percent from the field.
It's no secret that Morris would be good for any NBA team in need of a point guard, but he probably could have benefited from another year at school. As good as he is at passing the ball and driving to the basket to draw fouls, his three-point shot needs a lot of work. Last season, he only shot 25 percent from downtown.
Still, Morris has the makings of a top point guard, and if put with the right coach, specifically a patient one, he can become a perennial All-Star. With that, don't be shocked if he's taken a bit early.
No. 2: Kenneth Faried, Morehead State
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For someone who's just 6'8" and 225 pounds, Kenneth Faried plays defense like a top NBA center. During his senior year, he averaged 17.3 points and 14.5 rebounds. Over his four-year college career, he averaged 14.6 points and 12.1 rebounds and finished up as the all-time leading rebounder in NCAA history. He passed NBA legend Tim Duncan to become first.
Yet despite a great college career, Faried has been described by some as a "liability" on offense, as well as undersized to play center on the professional level. Still, he's an old-fashioned, blue-collar defender who is a true threat in the paint.
If he can prove some of the naysayers wrong in the weeks leading up to the draft, a lottery team in need of a big body in the middle just might give him a shot.
No. 1: Nolan Smith, Duke
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Nolan Smith is the kind of guard that coaches dream about. He is a great shooter, passes the ball well and can be a leader who puts the team on his back when necessary. It's no wonder that he was a key contributor when Duke won a national championship just a year ago.
Smith averaged 20.6 points and 5.1 assists per game his senior season and was the team's saving grace when freshman point guard Kyrie Irving went down with a toe injury. Still, as good as he was on the college level, NBA scouts see him as nothing more than a shooter whose ability to run an offense is questionable.
Personally, I think those scouts are nuts. Smith is a leader who always puts the team first. Yes, he is a very talented shooter, but he is never one to sacrifice a victory for personal stats.
Don't be surprised if a lottery team gambles on the 6'2", 185-pound Blue Devil. If one does, it will be gaining a very valuable player.
