Bracketology 101: How to Win Your NCAA Tournament Pool

It's nearly March Madness time again and those of you filling out brackets need all the help you can get.

 

In this season of parity, I would advise anyone entering a pool to take advantage of what's left of ESPNU's full slate of Conference Tournament coverage. But even that sort of couch-based research might not be enough this year, when the field of 65 will be as unpredictable as it's ever been. No more than half a dozen teams have shown signs of being able to make a six-game run, and bracket-busting sleeper picks are few and far between.

 

So what's a betting man to do?

 

Statistics are always a good place to start. In preparing for this year's Madness, I looked to old numbers for hidden truths on the do's and dont's of elite bracketology. And so, based on research gathered from the last decade (1997-2006) of NCAA Tournament History...

Got a surefire sleeper tip? Check out the Bleacher Report Bracket to make your picks and get full tournament coverage.

 

First Round Trends

-        8 seeds have a 21-19 record against 9 seeds 

-        7-10 matchups have been split 20 games apiece

-        11 seeds upset 6 seeds 11 times in the past ten years (a 27.5% success rate)

-        12 seeds pulled off an upset 35.0% of the time (14 times in 40 tries)

                   -A 12-5 upset has occurred in every year except 2000

                   -Multiple 12-5 upsets occurred in 1999, 2001, 2002, and 2004

-        In 40 attempts, 13 seeds have won 8 times (20.0%...or once every two years on average)

-        3 seeds are upset by 14 seeds 12.5% of the time (5/40)

-        In the past 10 years (and in all of NCAA history) 15 seeds have won only twice

  

First Round Conclusions

-        Go with your gut feeling on the 8-9 and 7-10 matchups...and hope to get at least 4 of 8 games right.

-        Pick three 11 and 12 seeds (any combination) to land an upset in the first round.

-        If you're feeling saucy, pick one 13 or 14 seed upset. Even if you're wrong, one reach pick probably won't come back to haunt you. And even if you don't win the pool, you've got bragging rights for the year if you make the right call.

-        Never pick a 15 over 2 upset—and don't even think about a 16 over a 1. Printable brackets should come with the the 1 seeds already written into the second round to save us all some time. I don't care how good of a hunch you have about a particular team: Don't do it.

 

 

Second Round Trends

-        1 seeds have won 34 of their 40 second round games

             -       8 seeds: Five 8 over 1 upsets

             -       9 seeds : One 9 over 1 upset

             -       All four 1 seeds reached the Sweet 16 in 6 of the last 10 years

-        2 seeds have only won 20 of 38 second-round games

             -       7 seeds : Seven 7 over 2 upsets

             -      10 seeds: Eleven 10 over 2 upsets 

 

             -     Only two tournaments (1998, 2002) saw three 2 seeds make the Sweet 16

-        In 3-6 second-round matchups, the 6 seed has won 14 of 24 times (58.3%)

-        In 4-5 second round matchups, the 5 seed has won 10 of 19 times (52.6%)

             -      From 1997 to 2002, the 4 seed won 8 of 12 games (66.7%)

             -      From 2003 to 2006, the 5 seed won 6 of 7 games (85.7%)

-        Of the eleven 11 seeds to win in the first round, 36.4% (4) made the Sweet 16

-        Of the fourteen 12 seeds to win in the first round, 35.7% (5) made the Sweet 16

-        Of the eight 13 seeds to win in the first round, 25.0% (2) made the Sweet 16

-        Of the five 14 seeds to win in the first round, 20.0% (1) made the Sweet 16

-        No 15 or 16 seeds have ever made it to the Sweet 16

-        No tournament has seen more than two 11, 12, 13, or 14 seeds make the Sweet 16

-        2004 was the only year in which no 11, 12, 13, or 14 seeds reached the Sweet 16

 

Second Round Conclusions

-        The safe bet is to move all four 1 seeds to the Sweet 16 without thinking twice about it. One 8 or 9 over 1 upset wouldn't be too far-fetched—but don't bet on it happening more than once.

-        10 over 2 upsets happen more often than you'd expect. Having two 2 seeds and two 7 or 10 seeds in the Sweet 16 is a very plausible scenario.

-        Pick the 6 seed in about half of your 3-6 matchups.

-        Recently, the 5 seed has beaten the 4 seed more often than not...but those games have been roughly split in the last ten years. Go with the long-term trend in making your picks.

-        Always pick at least one—and never have more than two—11, 12, or 13 seeds to reach the Sweet 16.

-        Don't expect a 14 seed to reach the Sweet 16; it has happened only once.

-        Since you didn't pick a 15 or 16 seed to win in the first round, I don't need to tell you that you should never pick one to make the Sweet 16.

 

 

Third Round Trends

-        Only two tournaments saw all four 1 seeds reach the Elite 8

-        11 of 40 (27.5%) Elite 8 games were 1-2 matchups

-        7 of 40 (17.5%) Elite 8 games were 1-3 matchups

-        Only 4 of 40 (10.0%) Elite 8 games have featured two teams seeded 4 or lower

-        27 of 40 (67.5%) 1 seeds reached the Elite 8

             -       7 of 34 (20.6%) 1 seeds lost in the Sweet 16

-        15 of 40 (37.5%) 2 seeds reached the Elite 8

             -        5 of 20 (25.0%) 2 seeds lost in the Sweet 16

-        11 of 40 (27.5%) 3 seeds reached the Elite 8

             -        8 of 19 (42.1%) 3 seeds lost in Sweet 16

-        66.3% (53 of 80) Elite 8 teams have been a 1, 2, or 3 seed

 

-        Five 4 seeds reached the Elite 8

 

-        Three 5 seeds reached the Elite 8

 

-        Five 6 seeds reached the Elite 8

-        Four 7 seeds reached the Elite 8

-        Four 8 seeds reached the Elite 8

-        No 9 seed reached the Elite 8

-        Three 10 seeds reached the Elite 8

-        Two 11 seeds reached the Elite 8

 

-        One 12 seed reached the Elite 8

 

Third Round Conclusions

-        Half of your Elite 8 teams should be 1, 2, or 3 seeds—and you should try to have at least one 1, 2, or 3 seed in each Elite 8 game. You should never have more than one Elite 8 game with two teams seeded 4 or lower on your bracket.

-        Don't pick more than one team seeded 9 or lower to reach the Elite 8.

-        Find a 1 seed to knock off en route to the Elite 8. In only two of the last ten years did all four 1 seeds get that far. Besides, those who take risks are often rewarded.

 

 

Fourth Round Trends

-        1 seeds have won 6 of 11 (54.5%) of the 1-2 Elite 8 games

-        3 seeds have knocked off 1 seeds 5 of 7 times (71.4%) in 1-3 Elite 8 games

-        Sixteen 1 seeds reached the Final 4

            -       40% (16 of 40) of Final 4 teams are 1 seeds

-        Seven 2 seeds reached the Final 4

-        Seven 3 seeds reached the Final 4

-        Four 4 seeds reached the Final 4

-        Three 5 seeds reached the Final 4

-        Two 8 seeds reached the Final 4

-        One 11 seed reached the Final 4

-        Never have all four 1 seeds reached the Final 4

-        Only twice have three 1 seeds reached the Final 4, the last time in 1999

-        Only once (2006) has no 1 seed reached the Final 4

 

Fourth Round Conclusions

-        On average, two 1 seeds make the Final 4. In this year of unpredictability, it's not a stretch to imagine that one or even no 1 seeds might make it that far.

-        37 of 40 (92.5%) Final 4 teams were seeded 5 or higher. That's a strong percentage over a ten-year span—so it's a good rule of thumb to never have a team below a 5 in your Final 4.

-        When facing 2 or 3 seeds in the Elite 8 round, 1 seeds have won just 8 of 18 games (44.4%). I would consider that a more telling statistic than the fact that 3 seeds have beaten 1 seeds at a 71.4% clip. Use the first number to gauge how you select your Final 4 teams.

 

 

Final Four Trends

-        8 of 16 (50.0%) 1 seeds advanced to the Championship Game

-        5 of 7 (71.4%) 2 seeds advanced to the Championship Game

-        Four 3 seeds reached the Championship Game

-        One 4 seed reached the Championship Game

-        Two 5 seeds advanced to the Championship Game

-        A 1 seed appeared in the Championship Game in 6 of 10 (60.0%) years

            -     In the four years that a 1 seed didn't advance to the final round,

                  the Championship Game was a 2-3 matchup

 

 

 Championship Game Trends

-        No team seeded lower than 4 has won an NCAA Championship in the past 10 years

-        The lone 4 seed to reach the Championship Game (Arizona in 1997) won it
-        5 of 8 (62.5%) 1 seeds who advanced to the Championship Game won it

             -      Two of their three losses came to other 1 seeds

             -      The third loss came in 1997, when Kentucky fell to Arizona

-        Two 2 seeds won the National Championship

-        Two 3 seeds won the NCAA Championship

 

As you probably noticed, I didn't draw any conclusions from the Championship Game and Final Four trends. That's simply because there is no rhyme or reason to the results of the Final Four each season. Once a team gets that far, their season hinges on putting a together a two-game winning streak against quality opponents. The Final 4 teams all have a 25 percent shot at the championship—and no amount of statistical analysis can tell you anything more precise than that.

But that doesn't mean numbers don't have their value. 

All told, this exercise opened my eyes to the hidden realities of March Madness. Sure, you've got to be a true believer in the laws of probability to fill out a bracket on stats alone—but if you abide by these rules, and find an upset or two along the way, I can just about guarantee you success. Unfortunately, the same can't be said for the teams in the dance, whose chances come down to consecutive 40-minute tests graded on strict pass/fail criteria without the slightest regard for logic or percentages.

Thank goodness March Madness only comes once a year.